Interesting observation!

[Jasper79]

Hi all,

I've recently experimented with backing the home favourite in the first half, specifically between 15-45 mins and trading out after the first goal or @ HT if no goals). I have noticed that the 'risk / reward' ratio is favourable if backing at odds on the home team between 1.5 and 2. I have also noticed that the probability for the home team to score the first goal within this range is typically between 50-75%. Over 100+ games this has resulted in a positive EV overall (15%+).

What are your thoughts? does anybody else trade football in this way?

[JTEDL]

Good stuff , any home team wins 40-45% of the time according to the stats, so not a bad strategy, possibly a better option than laying the draw with odds on favourite.

It's just what you do if no goals or the away team scores first ie - stay in longer /trade out

[Jasper79]

If their are no goals I trade out for a small loss. (10-15%) This can be less dependant on the strength of fav and what is happening inplay. If the away team scores (40%) loss.

I like the look of the forest - Ipswich game this weekend.

Forest priced @1.7 in the MO.
If forest score first approx (50% ROI) if Ipswich score (40% loss).

Not; forest have scored first in 78% of their homes games this season.

If the inplay stats show a strong start for forest i will be all over this

[wearthefoxhat]

If their are no goals I trade out for a small loss. (10-15%) This can be less dependant on the strength of fav and what is happening inplay. If the away team scores (40%) loss.

I like the look of the forest - Ipswich game this weekend.

Forest priced @1.7 in the MO.
If forest score first approx (50% ROI) if Ipswich score (40% loss).

Not; forest have scored first in 78% of their homes games this season.

If the inplay stats show a strong start for forest i will be all over this

Forest will be buzzing after their recent 5-5 draw away from home! (They were 2-0 after 6 minutes)

There's a fair correlation with home teams increasing their probability to score when they score 2 or more goals in their last away game.

[wearthefoxhat]

If their are no goals I trade out for a small loss. (10-15%) This can be less dependant on the strength of fav and what is happening inplay. If the away team scores (40%) loss.

I like the look of the forest - Ipswich game this weekend.

Forest priced @1.7 in the MO.
If forest score first approx (50% ROI) if Ipswich score (40% loss).

Not; forest have scored first in 78% of their homes games this season.

If the inplay stats show a strong start for forest i will be all over this

Well done. Forest 1-0 after 9 mins. At least a 30%+ profitable trade if taken immediately....or maybe wait until HT...could be all over by then.

[wearthefoxhat]

HT 2-0. Forest @ 1.06 (lay price).