In running market

[Iron]

A tipster recently sent me a results spreadsheet, which included the Betfair SP and the minimum in-play odds.

The average implied minimum in-play odds were half the average implied Betfair SP odds (which were fairly accurate - backing at BSP would have given you a 6% profit).

The fact that the minimum in-play odds were lower than the BSP odds could have been due to chance. In another sample, they could have been higher. But what the data does suggest is that the in-play markets are highly inefficient.

Has anyone done any investigation into the in-play markets? If so, do backers generally overestimate or underestimate a horse's chances?

Jeff