relationship between first goal odds and 0-0 movement inplay

[herbie]

I'm trying to figure out the relationship between the 0-0 movement inplay and the first goal market.

If the 0-0 is say 13 (7.6%) and through soccer mystic I can find out that after 10 mins the 0-0 price will be about 10.0 (10%), an increase of 2.4%.

The 0-10 mins first goal odds is say, 5.0 (20%).

How can there be a 20% chance that a goal will occur in that time, but the chances of 0-0 only increases by 2.4%

My stupid head cant get a grasp of this... I feel that I am looking at this the wrong way round.

Please, any help will be welcome... I cant sleep at night because of it

regards
herbie

[mister man]

the 0-20 mkt is looking at that the cs market is looking at 90mins probability or 4.5x that of 0-20 ... 4.5 reduction of 20% prob is 4ish... stillabove your 2 though

[herbie]

mister man,
thanks for the response. I dont quite understand... could you please expand.

First of all....
I imagine there has to be a relation ship between the two markets.??

As the play passes through the 0 to 10 minutes the chances of 0-0 increases. yes?

At the rate of about 2%-ish if no goal is scored. yes?

The 0-10 minute odds 5.0 in the first goal market, this saying there will be 20 goals scored in 100 games (20% chance of a goal)??.

Why does the 0-0 not increase by 20%???

To half answer my own question.
I know 0-0 shouldnt and doesnt increase by 20%

why does the 0-0 only increase by around 2% from 0 to 10 minutes???

I hope you follow this?

It's driving me mad that I cant find a logical path through this

regards with healthy frustration
herbie
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