Dutching.

[Hiltz293]

Hi, I’ve just started using Bet Angel after watching the excellent video on Dutching on YouTube. This is the area I shall be concentrating initially.
I have a small bank roll to start off with and would like a little advice.
I was planning on using a stake of 5% of bank with no recovery bets, does this seem reasonable?
I have so far backed the top rated 4-5 horses in a race and am curious as to how many runners more experienced users back ?
If for example you have a 8 horse field, does anybody know the likely percentage of having a winner out of the top three rated runners. I have read that the favourites tend to win about 34% of the time.
Any help or advice would be greatly appreciated.

[The Silk Run]

http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/fav0.php

[MemphisFlash]

same thing in excel

Adrian Massey's UK Horse Race Ratings.xlsx

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi, I’ve just started using Bet Angel after watching the excellent video on Dutching on YouTube. This is the area I shall be concentrating initially.
I have a small bank roll to start off with and would like a little advice.
I was planning on using a stake of 5% of bank with no recovery bets, does this seem reasonable?
I have so far backed the top rated 4-5 horses in a race and am curious as to how many runners more experienced users back ?
If for example you have a 8 horse field, does anybody know the likely percentage of having a winner out of the top three rated runners. I have read that the favourites tend to win about 34% of the time.
Any help or advice would be greatly appreciated.

Can't give you a definitive answer, the posts about the Adrian Massey website would help if you blindly followed 1st/2nd/3rd/4th/5th favourites in a dutch.

What I will say (and you may already have some), is, maybe, find/and use some reliable ratings. There are some commercial ones that you could subscribe to, Timeform/Inform/Geegeez(Peter May), NWratings, Proform...etc

You could create your own speed figures, Nick Mordin/Alan Potts in their books have been fairly open on how to do this. My view the All Weather surface would be a fair starting point. (always a constant, worth reviewing the draw too)

Free resources, such as the Topspeed and Racing Post Rating on the racing post website have credibility. Even the Official Rating produced by the handicapper could define a range of qualifiers in Handicaps.

Dutching with insurance I find works well. Find 2 or 3 main selections for the main profit, and then 1 or 2 dangers for insurance. As you say, try and avoid recovery.

[wearthefoxhat]

Had to dig this out from an old USB stick.

Attached is a Dutch with insurance spready. Hope it helps.

Through demonstration, I've forecast the Southwell 4.10 race today with 3 main selections and 2 insurance selections.

Dutching with an insurance.xlsx

[Hiltz293]

Many thanks.