With millions of complacent remainers turning out next time who didn't think they had to last time, the result would be easy money if opinion was tested again. The leaver turnout must have been very close to peak numbers.
A confirmed electorate of 46,500,001 and 17,410,742 voted leave? As they say, do the math.
Courtesy of Sir John Curtis and Peter Kellner
EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)
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ShaunWhite
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It was meant to be easy money last time around, with a price of 1.04/1.05 ish to back remain on the night before and a lot of people got badly stung
If we've learnt one thing from trading political markets in the last few years it's how opinion polls always manage to get it spectacularly wrong, we only have to look at the last four major votes there has been - the referendum, the US election, and both our last two elections they got none right.
If we've learnt one thing from trading political markets in the last few years it's how opinion polls always manage to get it spectacularly wrong, we only have to look at the last four major votes there has been - the referendum, the US election, and both our last two elections they got none right.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10472
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I know what you're saying but politics is my football, this is my world cup. I've been doing just fine.
Glad to hear you are doing well on them Shuan.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:18 pmI know what you're saying but politics is my football, this is my world cup. I've been doing just fine.
There have obviously been some crackers in recent years, I hope there are more to come!
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ShaunWhite
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thx. I can't honestly say they've all been beauties but I'm doing ok. Having all the related markets certainly helps.
My bellwether on sociopolitical events is my old mum's bowls club (aka the 3rd Reich), some of them are getting mighty nervous now their hospital appointments are being postponed. A Brexit delay would probably last longer than most of them.
Glad I fully got out of my 'May leave date' trade when I did, it's just bounced well above 2.4s
Since her 'back and I'll go' statement the early market reaction is not expecting her to get her deal through!
Next few days are going to be very interesting across several markets
Since her 'back and I'll go' statement the early market reaction is not expecting her to get her deal through!
Next few days are going to be very interesting across several markets
Following tonights DUP announcement, that they won't be backing May's deal here price to be gone by June19 is now back out to where it was two weeks ago at 4.2
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LOL, you got the full house
Or in keeping with the horse racing analogy, the BBC have been using all day - they all fell
You really couldn't come close to making it up what's been happening in our parliament these last few weeks!
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wearthefoxhat
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Politics has never been more entertaining over the last few years. (Trump and Brexit combined)
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3559
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
I think I've just uncovered Theresa Mays' PlanB....
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BetScalper
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Personally, joking aside, I hope allot of these MP’s realise that they are going to lose their jobs at the next general election and it will be no-ones fault but there own.
We should have proportional representation. Hopefully that would make them work together.
If that means the monster raving looney party gets a couple of MPs then so what. At the moment there are 650 of them being paid 70k+ each for doing fuck all.
We should have proportional representation. Hopefully that would make them work together.
If that means the monster raving looney party gets a couple of MPs then so what. At the moment there are 650 of them being paid 70k+ each for doing fuck all.
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ShaunWhite
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Not a combative msg.....BetScalper wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:20 amPersonally, joking aside, I hope allot of these MP’s realise that they are going to lose their jobs at the next general election and it will be no-ones fault but there own.
We should have proportional representation. Hopefully that would make them work together.
If that means the monster raving looney party gets a couple of MPs then so what. At the moment there are 650 of them being paid 70k+ each for doing fuck all.
I think the ones who've already resigned realise about the job loss risk. Principals always come at a price and whether one agrees with those principals or not, I feel sympathy for the casualities on both sides of the arguement.
For once I might agree with you on one point
, ie PR. I think the whole indicative free vote thing isn't too bad actually. re the 70k. 'for fck all'? Have you seen how exhausted they all look? It's not really a great deal of money anyway these days especially with having to spend half your life in London if the wife and kids live in Durham, and the long hours too. A good middle management job pays that and being an MP is comparable, even a half decent programmer would easily top that. 70k seems about right and I'd definately want double that for all the agro.
You know what they say, pay peanuts and you get monkeys, 70k buys a slightly higher level of primate and that's fine by me. Do you want a national team that would be happy on 20 grand a year, or do you want players who could demand a decent wage? Personally I wish we had a house full of such coruscating stars they wanted 700k !