Although I am fairly new to trading (9 months) I am aware of some of the signs and ways the markets move in certain events, and for the previous 2 months I have just begun to make headway in making manual trading profitable. However, for the previous 3 days since using BA it seems as though there is someone looking over my shoulder!
Why do I say this?
Well, from the previous 45 races run that I decided to trade in the three days since I installed BA 39 have gone against me "within seconds" of laying or placing a back bet. This has never happened to myself before at such a high ratio. The odds must be astronomical for that to occur at such a frequency in such a short space of time. Now whilst some may think this scenario is amusing, I assure you it is not.
I am trading as I normally do and running BA in practice mode with the odd 'live' race here and there at present as I do not trust anyones word that most of the auto stuff works off the cuff, because it does NOT.
Whilst the posters of bots and servants have to be thanked for their hard work, endeavours along with sharing they are at the same time not going to divulge settings that give them an edge to anyone else. So it is up to each individual to adjust the settings to suit themselves.
This in turn presents a major issue for myself as I unfortunately suffer from Dyslexia and as such I am unable to read and understand programming skills. So for myself to be able to use any of the auto bots or servants and make them work properly I would have to learn those skills, which at my age (72) would be an impossible task.
So it looks as though I shall not continue to be a member of the BA community, there is no point as I see it.
Kind regards
Miro
BA - Spy?
If you have a strategy that is losing 86% of the time you seriously need to address the strategy. Bet Angel doesn't have visibility of anything once you connect to Betfair so your core strategy appears to be flawed. It's common when trading to feel that somebody is looking over your shoulder, but the quicker you dismiss that feeling, the better trader you will become.
The example files are there to get you started quickly and easily but you need to build on them. If your strategy is racing related, the racing markets have been very weak so far this week. So your strategy doesn't like those types of markets I guess?
The example files are there to get you started quickly and easily but you need to build on them. If your strategy is racing related, the racing markets have been very weak so far this week. So your strategy doesn't like those types of markets I guess?
sad to see you go after so long, but at least you gave it a good try!!
Seriously tho' apart from paranoia ruling your emotions, you honestly need to take stock and examine all aspects of your trading. i have no clue as to whether you've traded (in real time seriously) for 5 days, 5 weeks or 5 months. my gut feel tells me it's probably not the latter. if you really are suspicious that BA is looking over your shoulder, you could test that hypothesis by using an other software and comparing relative synchronys results. if you did find that BA was hoodwinking the process, then you are definitely at liberty to report your findings to Betfair as this would indicate that BA has failed the audit process.
I mean this when i say it, take a step back and think about whether this could actually be true - i reckon it could just be highly charged emotions responding to scenarios not going as expected. i say this as i've been there too and blamed every technical unknown other than myself.
taking control of your emotions, thus destiny, will change everything.
keep us posted and don't leave without listening to other opinions - i think your journey has hit a bump, not a stop.
I know how you feel, it's been happening to me lately (just laid Federer before he broke), but I never for a moment thought there was anything fishy going on.
It's a common feeling for new traders to experience everything going against you and paranoia sets in, but you really have to understand the psychological flaws of the human brain and put them aside. There are just two reasons why things keep going against you (or me). Either a string of bad luck or a string of bad trades!
Thank you for your replies, your encourement is appreciated.
Too much fluctuation within a lot of the markets make it extremely difficult to read anything, no matter what we 'think' we see in front of us.
As you are more than aware there are some things we see on the screen that are not really there at all, it just smoke, we have to look beyond the smoke and weigh things up.
As I have already stated I have only been trading for 9 months and have just begun to turn a profit on certain horse races. It has taken me that time to learn something that works for me. When I feel proficient with this, then I shall move on to learning another for a different scenario.
Yes, of course I made mistakes and still do, but I do learn from them, and as time passes and I learn more they are becoming less frequent.
The spy thing was actually said tounge in cheek by the way. Although, I am able to relate to what you say in that at times it seems that someone is looking over our shoulder when things go against us.
I am still unable to comprehend why so many of those races happened virtually one after the other. However, your reply in one aspect is more than probably the answer.
One simply cannot afford emotions when playing with money and odds, they will beat you up every time. I am too old to know anger, it would probably give me a heart attack anyway
, frustration from time to time yes, but I take a break or the next day off and try and go over the previous days racing and what I think I may have done wrong, I do not just give up.
Yes, I do admit that after it continued to happen on the second day it really did cross my mind and made me smile thinking that BA was a spy. Of course I know it is not, it is a good honest product. I have a couple of friends that use it for football and tennis so I know it is worthwhile trying to use it.
Probably %$£* luck for it to happen so often in three days and some bad trades thrown in, a bit of both.
Kind Regards
Miro
Too much fluctuation within a lot of the markets make it extremely difficult to read anything, no matter what we 'think' we see in front of us.
As you are more than aware there are some things we see on the screen that are not really there at all, it just smoke, we have to look beyond the smoke and weigh things up.
As I have already stated I have only been trading for 9 months and have just begun to turn a profit on certain horse races. It has taken me that time to learn something that works for me. When I feel proficient with this, then I shall move on to learning another for a different scenario.
Yes, of course I made mistakes and still do, but I do learn from them, and as time passes and I learn more they are becoming less frequent.
The spy thing was actually said tounge in cheek by the way. Although, I am able to relate to what you say in that at times it seems that someone is looking over our shoulder when things go against us.
I am still unable to comprehend why so many of those races happened virtually one after the other. However, your reply in one aspect is more than probably the answer.
One simply cannot afford emotions when playing with money and odds, they will beat you up every time. I am too old to know anger, it would probably give me a heart attack anyway
, frustration from time to time yes, but I take a break or the next day off and try and go over the previous days racing and what I think I may have done wrong, I do not just give up.Yes, I do admit that after it continued to happen on the second day it really did cross my mind and made me smile thinking that BA was a spy. Of course I know it is not, it is a good honest product. I have a couple of friends that use it for football and tennis so I know it is worthwhile trying to use it.
Probably %$£* luck for it to happen so often in three days and some bad trades thrown in, a bit of both.
Kind Regards
Miro
There are two reasons, from my experience, for why things go tits-up after a profitable spell.
One is complacency ‒ particularly for new traders, when things are going well it's easy to get overconfident and more relaxed about staking and opening trades instead of sticking to the rock-solid strategy that brought you success.
The other is the markets themselves. Many times on this forum members have looked at the day's racing and decided to take the day off, and there are probably countless other traders who do the same. Fewer people trading poor quality racing results in poor liquidity, which in turn leads to volatile markets with prices moving faster and further than the stable markets you're used to.
One is complacency ‒ particularly for new traders, when things are going well it's easy to get overconfident and more relaxed about staking and opening trades instead of sticking to the rock-solid strategy that brought you success.
The other is the markets themselves. Many times on this forum members have looked at the day's racing and decided to take the day off, and there are probably countless other traders who do the same. Fewer people trading poor quality racing results in poor liquidity, which in turn leads to volatile markets with prices moving faster and further than the stable markets you're used to.
Hi Derek27.
Both your points in regards to complacency and stable markets are well made. I am not paranoid in any way, it did flash through my mind for a split second but as stated my comment in regards to BA was made with tongue in cheek as it was like something was watching every move I made
At least I am not alone in thinking this happens to new traders 
I do not trade Tennis but sorry to hear things are not going in your favour at times. We just have to wait until the markets are a little more stable.
It was not compacency as one of my three rules that I remind myself of before I begin trading everyday without fail is in regards to the former. The other two are 'be aware of the state that your mind is in throughout'. The last is, 'Never chase losses', as they are inevitable.
Even after 9 months I still only trade for £3. When I enter a trade I make a visual circle around the odds, from there I pick my exit point which is never no more than 8 ticks against, this depends on the odds of the horse I am trading. I am also not bothered if the profit is only as small as 10p.
Keep smiling eh.
Regards
Miro
Both your points in regards to complacency and stable markets are well made. I am not paranoid in any way, it did flash through my mind for a split second but as stated my comment in regards to BA was made with tongue in cheek as it was like something was watching every move I made
At least I am not alone in thinking this happens to new traders I do not trade Tennis but sorry to hear things are not going in your favour at times. We just have to wait until the markets are a little more stable.
It was not compacency as one of my three rules that I remind myself of before I begin trading everyday without fail is in regards to the former. The other two are 'be aware of the state that your mind is in throughout'. The last is, 'Never chase losses', as they are inevitable.
Even after 9 months I still only trade for £3. When I enter a trade I make a visual circle around the odds, from there I pick my exit point which is never no more than 8 ticks against, this depends on the odds of the horse I am trading. I am also not bothered if the profit is only as small as 10p.
Keep smiling eh.
Regards
Miro
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3679
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
+1 Good post.Derek27 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:18 pmThere are two reasons, from my experience, for why things go tits-up after a profitable spell.
One is complacency ‒ particularly for new traders, when things are going well it's easy to get overconfident and more relaxed about staking and opening trades instead of sticking to the rock-solid strategy that brought you success.
The other is the markets themselves. Many times on this forum members have looked at the day's racing and decided to take the day off, and there are probably countless other traders who do the same. Fewer people trading poor quality racing results in poor liquidity, which in turn leads to volatile markets with prices moving faster and further than the stable markets you're used to.
FWIW, I decided early doors, to take on more learning before taking it seriously. ie: Peter Webb's Masterclass
It helped me narrow down key areas to focus on and with practice, gain knowledge of the chosen market(s). It was also good to meet other like minded people and talk through the different elements. Obviously I still make misjudgements, but they are becoming less and I'm able to minimise them. (the same applies when I play poker)
It was important to accept the misjudgements as my own and no-one elses. That way I could grow and improve....
Hi Euler.
Thank you for your reply.
The strategy I use has been profitable for some two months, yes there is still the small losses with some trades on a daily basis, but in the main it appears to be working. So I do not feel that this was the case. Your comment of 'weak markets' had been noted during this week, especially after the festival, so that could well be the case.
In regards to 'servants' and 'Bots'. I understand that they are not going to be profitable as they are. The point I was making was that because of my severe reading difficulties it is impossible for me to make the needed adjustments as the words on tabs are just all mumble jumble to my eyes and brain, but that's the way it is and I would not wish it on anyone. Because of modern technology it is quite easy to dictate to a computer and write, but it is not so easy to do the reverse.
My first post above was in no way meant as a negative to any part of BA. My apologies if it was taken that way.
Regards
Miro
Thank you for your reply.
The strategy I use has been profitable for some two months, yes there is still the small losses with some trades on a daily basis, but in the main it appears to be working. So I do not feel that this was the case. Your comment of 'weak markets' had been noted during this week, especially after the festival, so that could well be the case.
In regards to 'servants' and 'Bots'. I understand that they are not going to be profitable as they are. The point I was making was that because of my severe reading difficulties it is impossible for me to make the needed adjustments as the words on tabs are just all mumble jumble to my eyes and brain, but that's the way it is and I would not wish it on anyone. Because of modern technology it is quite easy to dictate to a computer and write, but it is not so easy to do the reverse.
My first post above was in no way meant as a negative to any part of BA. My apologies if it was taken that way.
Regards
Miro
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
It could simply be you're not used to the fast refresh rates API programs like BA provide. There's so much noise going on when you start looking at markets in fine detail or in millisecond refreshes it can become confusing. Maybe set your refreshes in line with what you were used to and the patterns may become easier to spot.
spreadbetting.
Thank you for your tip, I have taken it on board. Although I do use other software (not free) it is very fast possibly as quick as BA, but I am not really happy with the interface. Compared to BA it is clunky and the greening up button sometimes goes haywire resulting in a loss.
I shall try your suggestion.
Regards
Miro
Thank you for your tip, I have taken it on board. Although I do use other software (not free) it is very fast possibly as quick as BA, but I am not really happy with the interface. Compared to BA it is clunky and the greening up button sometimes goes haywire resulting in a loss.
I shall try your suggestion.
Regards
Miro