Really Struggling

[Smothcy4]

I've been trading for a year and a half now focusing on pre-race horse racing markets and in that time i have spent hundreds of hours watching and studying the markets. I have bought video courses, eBooks, everything. I have read numerous books on trading psychology and how the mind works, including trading in the zone. I literally have watched every YouTube video i can possibly think of, including Bet Angel's courses.

I would consider myself a very calm person. I don't go in-play or do anything rational. I watched a few hundred markets before i traded. I now trade when there is change within the market only. In that time, i have lost just a few hundred pound since a year and a half ago learning to trade with very small stakes. Technically, i haven't lost anything as that was from arb profit, but i don't care about that, as it's my education funds towards sports trading.

I am very keen to make this work. I just don't see why i cannot make any profit trading. I don't lose money, but i don't seem to win any either. It's a circle game for me at the moment and i am trying to tilt it slightly on the win side, but i just cannot do it.

My approach is very simple. First I will identity in the morning the types of races and what i think will happen whether it will be a scalp or swing type situation. I will write all races down and notes on a piece of paper, the amount of prize money, runners, length, and anything else that may help me not get into the wrong situation later on. If its a certain trainer that is known for gambles, i will note that down too.

I trade when i see change, this will be purely on momentum, order flow/weight of money, including the live pictures. Horse playing up etc. I have charts up and study them to help me make my decision, but i trade what i see is happening at the time. Normally this is within the last 5 minutes, but focus on the last 10 minutes too.

The problem i have. I am winning some, i will lose some, and fully accept that is part the game. However, it's knocking me back to square one. Yes i let my profits run and cut my losses short, but when a huge spike comes in we cannot help that etc. I went through all my losing trades over two months and could not see anything unusual or a pattern on why i am losing. My P&L is negative by only a small margin over a month.

I am literally stuck and don't know what to do. I don't want to quit sports trading as i really enjoy it. I enjoy it even though im not making any money and it fits around my life. However, i have come to a road block and don't know what else to focus on studying. Lately i have just been watching the markets again to see if i can see anything that stands out, but it's just the usual for me. Momentum, order flow/weight of money, support/resistance.

I do trade every race based on my notes. Whether this would be a scalp or swing type market. What i mean by that is, If i see opportunity, i will trade it. If i don't i will skip it. They say that you should only pick the fights you can win, however we just don't know whats going to happen. A large spike can knock us back etc. It's unpredictable, but i limit my risk and accept any outcome of any trade.

Can anyone offer advice for someone that has absolutely given it 100% and is currently stuck? I would very much appreciate it. I know it's me pushing the button and trading the market, so it's hard for anyone to offer me advice. However, i would appreciate if you could help me focus on something else that i could be missing other than Momentum, TV pictures, order flow/weight of money, support/resistance. etc. and the usual stuff.

I am completely calm and my psychology is very good, and so is my attitude to trading, so i don't think its this. I have also studied lately my execution, as it could of been that, but i am early in Que positions too and getting on bottom of the trading range, not chasing the wave or anything silly.

I don't know what to focus on to get a consistent profit anymore. I am stuck.

[RentonT]

I trade when i see change,

This was the one note I would offer advice on... maybe you should try to anticipate moves earlier and then manage an open position as you see the change.

With the 50% success rate trading at random as a base, your notes and experience should be enough to tilt you net positive.

Personally I like to predict what is going to happen and look for confirming evidence. And manage positions accordingly.

There seems to be more "noise" than ever now and you just have to be a bit more patient and a bit more confident.

Simple questions you can ask yourself are?

What do I think SP will likely be rather than just looking at top/bottom of trading ranges.

When will the money come for this horse if it does?

Is everyone going to think the same thing about this situation or is it just me?

Hopefully something helps there but good luck anyway.

[wearthefoxhat]

You've certainly covered a lot of ground over time..maybe too much (it that's possible). I would guess some of the info you've read/digested crosses over and conflicts. That would be quite overwhelming and confusing to many. (certainly for me)

FWIW, I "invested" early in learning, with the masterclass course @Peter Webbs' offices. I had already subbed to their software and had tried others, also read various books and pdf's. I found the masterclass (geared around the B.A product) helped me crystallise my thoughts and able to ask questions of someone who has been successful for many years. It doesn't mean I've cracked it and I'm smashing it day in day out, what it does mean is that I'm able to get my preparation. mindset and approach right. The supporting "manual" is a great resource and important to refer to, even a year on there's other stuff I find that helps too.

I don't think the above will give you the definitive answer or the golden bullet, I just want to share my journey.

I hope you stick with it.

[Dallas]

You've done very well to get to where you are, the first year shakes out so many so you've already achieved something and gotten into that small % of people who are not losing, most that have got this far then seem to enter what's become known as the 'Grind of Death' which appears to be where you are now and if you search that term you should find plenty of other similar threads where you may pick up some advice and tips from in addition to what responses you get here

Also, I think it was Ruthlessimon who posted a chart somewhere on here which is probably a close reflection of how the first 3-4 years of a traders life looks for most, if he or whoever posted it see's this perhaps they'll post a copy here

[eightbo]

[Dallas]

Thats the one, thanks Eightbo Iv saved it this time

[eightbo]

It seems like you are already aware that you need to improve your average result (expectancy).

I'd advise dropping the # of trades you're taking if you're trading most markets.
As an exercise give yourself 5 trades per day (not 5 markets) and that will get your mind looking for the most premium setups.

It's natural for us to feel we have to be doing something to be making money but as with most things trading, you need to develop the habit of going against the grain.

Make extensive notes each day regarding the trades you are taking to do more of what works and less of what isn't.
As we tend to be more critical of ourselves than supportive, try focusing particularly on identifying and reinforcing strengths only for a while.

I would also add that as more time passes if you're still not progressing, begin to put some effort into different market types / sports on the side of what you're already doing as, just as you can't spot something here but some can, you may spot something elsewhere where other's can't.

Best of luck.

[ShaunWhite]

It sounds like you've understand all the techniques and what to look at, but haven't actually discovered a quantifiable edge. Could it be that you're making copious notes and then basically still winging it?

It's probably also worth saying that discretionary manual trading of pre-off horse markets isn't for everyone and another type of trading might suit you better. Just because a guy on YouTube is good at it, it doesn't mean you will be, that's the danger of trying to emulate someone rather than finding your own way. It's much easier for an artist to find their own style than it is to slavishly try to copy an established master.

Many people fail because they can't do exactly what Mr X Y or Z does, without realising that Mr X Y or Z found their own way, and it probably the case that they'll need to aswell.

[Smothcy4]

Thank you very much for your replies. I really appreciate it. Yes i will continue. I will not give up trading sports, the reason for this is i don't have anything else in life that i am truly passionate about or to focused on, so i am very interested in making this work. It's not just about the money for me, its a choice of life that i need as it fits around me perfectly and it's nice spending time at home with the family too. I don't have any other hobbies or anything so my life is pretty much involved around trading. I am sure you understand and i bet there are many others on the forum who are truly the same. Very dedicated.

I fully accept that i have only been trading for a year and a half now, and in that time when i first got into Betfair i was clueless, and the amount of information and knowledge i have gained over this past year has been tremendous. I knew the basics of back and lay to arb, but for me trading was difficult when i first started. However, when i look back 6-8 months ago to where i am now, i have gained more and more knowledge and improved so well. Hopefully i can say the same in the next 6 months.

I agree over time i think we do digest too much information and makes things complicated for ourselves. I don't know if this is good or bad. I have spent months researching and studying, not looking for the perfect edge or the holy grail, but just researching the way the market works and how people react. It's great when you can sit there and watch the markets in the last few minutes with peoples fear by panicking and taking positions which is completely unnecessary. I did this when i first started out, i used to chase the wave as you call it and things that was just silly. If i ever make a mistake i don't care as long as i learn. That's whats important to me.

Thanks Dallas. I have read a lot of your posts on the forum and you've helped people tremendously. I will read up more on Grind of Death as you say and study it a little later on tonight. The photo makes sense too.

Thanks ShaunWhite. Would you say horse racing is the hardest out of the others or are they all equal? I ask this, because some people just couldn't trade horse racing. I read a couple of books and one guy said he just couldn't do it and moved onto Tennis and everything was perfect. I didn't know much about horse racing when i started and didn't really have any interest in it. I love football myself, but i find that with horse racing i don't get attached to it. I totally agree with you though and have thought about this over these past few months, perhaps it just isn't for me or the conditions don't suit my trading style. I will continue as i am doing, but definitely considered trying something new. I just feel i have learned a lot about horse racing and don't feel i want to give up on it.

Could you offer some advice on where to look for a quantifiable edge. Perhaps you're right. I do understand everything about the market and the way the market is working, but perhaps missing a quantifiable edge as you say. It appears that i am stuck in this grind of death as Dallas said, now i have learned about the way the market functions with momentum, fear and other factors, i need to learn and study more on my edge. I think im just going to read more on the forums and stick around. I don't expect to find an edge on here, but could possibly point me in the right direction on what to focus on next by digging through threads.

As shown in the photo. Perhaps i am just still early in my trading career and should just continue how i am doing and things will come together.

[ShaunWhite]

Thanks ShaunWhite. Would you say horse racing is the hardest out of the others or are they all equal?

All I can say to that is, for me anyway, I found it tough. Others take to it like a duck to water. It's one of those things where if you can do it then it seems easy and if you can't it seems impossible. A bit like juggling. Sorry that's so vague but the cliché 'horses for courses' really does apply here. It's tough to consider another way though, there's a huge sunk cost to overcome and a perpetual feeling of almost being there.

Good luck though.

[Smothcy4]

Thanks ShaunWhite. Would you say horse racing is the hardest out of the others or are they all equal?

All I can say to that is, for me anyway, I found it tough. Others take to it like a duck to water. It's one of those things where if you can do it then it seems easy and if you can't it seems impossible.
Sorry that's so vague but the cliché 'horses for courses' really does apply here. It's tough to consider another way though, there's a huge sunk cost to overcome and a perpetual feeling of almost being there.

Good luck though.

Thank you. I am currently finding it though, not mentally but just more confused on what to focus on next. I have a question to anyone in this thread. When you define an 'edge' can this be 'execution, momentum, order flow, weight of money, live pictures, mindset' or is it completely something different and unique? I do understand kind of what an edge is, an advantage over the market, but these above seem quite popular, so not really an edge are they? or are they? I'm just trying to figure it out on what i should be looking at next other than these, as i am trying to break the break Evan as Dallas mentioned.

Sorry to sound stupid.

[ShaunWhite]

Not stupid at all. The issue is that 'edge' is a bit a fuzzy term. Some will say it's something you should be able to qualify and quantify with mathematical precision, but an 'edge' is also just being better equipped than your competition, that could be being smarter or harder working through to stuff like having faster pictures. It's a very convenient term to throw at people as a reason for failure but one that few are prepared to explain in enough detail for them to do anything about. Perhaps you need a 1-to-1 masterclass to find out what your edge is/could be and how to turn that into a profit. You certainly sound like you know enough and take this more seriously than most, you just need help getting over the line from someone who walks the walk, like Peter.

[ShaunWhite]

... trouble is there aren't many Peters to choose from, lots of profitable people aren't really into spreading the secrets of their success or they choose to be the idle(?) rich rather than being in a classroom and enjoying teaching and promoting the industry.

[Smothcy4]

Not stupid at all. The issue is that 'edge' is a bit a fuzzy term. Some will say it's something you should be able to qualify and quantify with mathematical precision, but an 'edge' is also just being better equipped than your competition, that could be being smarter or harder working through to stuff like having faster pictures. It's a very convenient term to throw at people as a reason for failure but one that few are prepared to explain in enough detail for them to do anything about. Perhaps you need a 1-to-1 masterclass to find out what your edge is/could be and how to turn that into a profit. You certainly sound like you know enough and take this more seriously than most, you just need help getting over the line from someone who walks the walk, like Peter.

Thank you Shaun, I really appreciate your reply and support. I would be very interested in a 1-to-1 masterclass. Are you referring to peters or someone else like Steve Howe? Do you know when these run from? I will keep an eye out for the next one available.

[iambic_pentameter]

OP

Whilst on the face of it, 18 months seems a long time, the average time it took the pro's that I'm aware of to go full time, was around 4 years. This means that you are doing well and certainly heading in the right direction.

I remember when I started out coming across some material that suggested it would take 3 years to fully understand how the racing markets work. At the time, I thought "No way. It won't take that long" and, as it was, that was about right.

You've laid some very solid foundations and just need to keep going - be methodical, be disciplined and you have an excellent chance of cracking it.

Iambic