Hi everyone, just a quick enquiry:
I am a beginner and I have just discovered that in the 'To be placed' markets the lay market is always around 250%-300%. Now, as far as I am concerned, bookmaking is profitable above 100%. Does this mean that it is a good idea to do bookmaking in the 'To be placed' races?
It seems too good to be true, therefore I do not dare trying it just yet, so I would be very happy to read the answers of traders with more knowledge than I have.
Thanks a lot!
To be placed - bookmaking
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
You can have 2, 3, 4 and perhaps even 5 winners in the tbp markets - so yes it is too good to be true.
1 winner = 100%
2 winners = 200%
3 winners = 300%
4 winners = 400%
You can change this setting on the bookmaking tab.
Make sure that you look in the rules tab of the place market to see how many runners are being paid out.
The issues with this are
1) withdrawn horses mean you may be exposing yourself to a huge loss with even small stakes.
2) The liquidity on the bigger priced runners mean it is hard to get matched.
The % looks attractive but this is too dodgy fella
2 winners = 200%
3 winners = 300%
4 winners = 400%
You can change this setting on the bookmaking tab.
Make sure that you look in the rules tab of the place market to see how many runners are being paid out.
The issues with this are
1) withdrawn horses mean you may be exposing yourself to a huge loss with even small stakes.
2) The liquidity on the bigger priced runners mean it is hard to get matched.
The % looks attractive but this is too dodgy fella
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BeatTheHouse
- Posts: 10
- Joined: Sat Nov 27, 2010 9:21 am
Just be clear about why bookmaking is profitable above 100% . . .
Basically, in a horse race, there is a 100% chance of one of the starters winning the race (unless something bizarre happened, and nothing finished, but normally that would be declared a non-race and all bets would be void).
Bookmakers offer odds slightly below the "true value", which when calculated as a percentage will bring back a result of over 100%, the extra bit being the profit if the book is perfectly balanced.
The same theory applies on the place dividends, but the edge goes way over 100% because there are three (or more winners). Another way to express that would be that there is a 100% chance that some combination of 3 will place, i.e. if you have a race of 8 with 3 place getters, then there is a 100% chance of something getting first, a 100% chance of something running second and a 100% chance of something running third, added together a 300% chance.
So, if you want the all elusive risk free profit, effectively, in a race with three place getters, you would need to lay 3 or more selections at over 300% or back the field at under 300% to be guaranteed the win, or exploit the overround/underround that you are talking about.
There are some advantages and disadvantages to trying to create a book in the place market opposed to the win market, but very rarely do the markets go overround/underround far enough and for long enough to make a completely risk free profit.
Basically, in a horse race, there is a 100% chance of one of the starters winning the race (unless something bizarre happened, and nothing finished, but normally that would be declared a non-race and all bets would be void).
Bookmakers offer odds slightly below the "true value", which when calculated as a percentage will bring back a result of over 100%, the extra bit being the profit if the book is perfectly balanced.
The same theory applies on the place dividends, but the edge goes way over 100% because there are three (or more winners). Another way to express that would be that there is a 100% chance that some combination of 3 will place, i.e. if you have a race of 8 with 3 place getters, then there is a 100% chance of something getting first, a 100% chance of something running second and a 100% chance of something running third, added together a 300% chance.
So, if you want the all elusive risk free profit, effectively, in a race with three place getters, you would need to lay 3 or more selections at over 300% or back the field at under 300% to be guaranteed the win, or exploit the overround/underround that you are talking about.
There are some advantages and disadvantages to trying to create a book in the place market opposed to the win market, but very rarely do the markets go overround/underround far enough and for long enough to make a completely risk free profit.
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rubysglory
- Posts: 309
- Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:02 am