Lay at a loss or let it ride?

[Steev]

At what point does it make more sense to let the bet ride rather than laying it off at a loss?

If you were to bet at 5.0 and it drifted to 6.0 and you concluded it wasn't going to drift below 5.0 to lay the bet, would you be better off laying at 6.0 or let it ride? There has to be a point where it's more likely your average return would be greater letting the bet run than guaranteeing a loss. So something you backed at 5.0, at what point does it become less economical in your opinion to leave it – 6.0, 7.0, 8.0?

[spreadbetting]

If you're trading it never makes sense to let it ride.

If you don't believe the bet will return to 5's the most economical point will usually as soon as possible rather than watch it drift further. If we make the assumption betfair odds at the off are close to the true probability then the further they drift the less likely they'll win so it makes sense to get out with that small loss asap rather than a big one.

[rubysglory]

Your first bet is a gamble. Only your second is a trade. From a purely statistical point of view however, the net result of letting such bets ride over the longer term versus 'redding' across all selections is near the same - if you are psychologically strong enough and your bank big enough to handle such stresses! IMO commission payable will however send you to the poor house if your strategy involves large win and multiple smaller loss swings.


rg

[Alpha322]

At what point does it make more sense to let the bet ride rather than laying it off at a loss?

If you were to bet at 5.0 and it drifted to 6.0 and you concluded it wasn't going to drift below 5.0 to lay the bet, would you be better off laying at 6.0 or let it ride? There has to be a point where it's more likely your average return would be greater letting the bet run than guaranteeing a loss. So something you backed at 5.0, at what point does it become less economical in your opinion to leave it – 6.0, 7.0, 8.0?

Hi
S i touched on this a few months ago. Think most traders would spread the loss. Here is a quote from a Forex Book i have
>> For example: A trader may be in the red by $1000. If the trader were to cut his losses now, he knows exactly what his loss is, $1000. However, by staying in a losing trade, he is taking a chance that he might recover. But this also leaves him open for deeper losses of an amount he is not aware of. That known amount is put aside in favour of possibly making it much worse. Thus, a gamble at best.<<

If you let the bet ride then you might aswell call it a lay bet. All trades are suppose to be closed and the good thing about the BA and other software products we can reduce the loss below our bank divide
where on the forex you cant do that.

[Steev]

This will come from experience, no double, but at what point do you generally lay a bet? Would it be fairly quick and after it drifts by one only or two points?

[Caerus]

In my trading I take up a position with the belief that the market will go a certain way... If however it moves a couple of ticks in the opposite direction I realise I got it wrong and trade out immediately.

Thats the beauty of trading, when u trade out u can start again straight away.

However having said that I know that its not always that easy and u can find yourself hanging onto a losing trade in the hope that it will come back your way. When I started trading I lost huge chunks off my bank many times over because of this.

[Empa]

At what point does it make more sense to let the bet ride rather than laying it off at a loss?

If you were to bet at 5.0 and it drifted to 6.0 and you concluded it wasn't going to drift below 5.0 to lay the bet, would you be better off laying at 6.0 or let it ride? There has to be a point where it's more likely your average return would be greater letting the bet run than guaranteeing a loss. So something you backed at 5.0, at what point does it become less economical in your opinion to leave it – 6.0, 7.0, 8.0?

Plan to buy prog, but I have a important question:
- Can I buy or apply for Lay-rate (with a tendency to decrease) at an inflated ratio by Bet Angel Prof?

[Empa]

Plan to buy prog, but I have a important question:
- Can I buy or apply for Lay-rate (with a tendency to decrease) at an inflated ratio by Bet Angel Prof?

[Euler]

Can you give an example?

[Empa]

Can you give an example?

Hi Euler!
Example:
Attending soccer match.
Account 0x0
We are planning to bet on market Under 1.5 Goals Back on the odds - 4.0
We have two options:
Option 1:
- Goal is not to score. Odds will fall and we will have a profit.
Option 2:
- Goal score. Odds will increase and we will have a loss.
The probability of each option - 1:1, we need to make insurance.
I've been looking for the most profitable insurance and found (theory)
- You must put insurance Under 1.5 Goals Lay - 4.5, it will reduce losses.
BUT! On the exchange Betfair odds Lay does not take on putting my (hand overestimated) odds (4,5), and takes on the current at the time of the transaction (for example - 3.5).
I hope that Betangel is a function - which will make a bet at inflated coefficients.
It will unmatched and when to score it will automatically transfer to the matched.
Sorry for complex text, I'm from Ukraine, but I tried to write clearly.
Best regards, Evgeniy Empa

[Empa]

Can you give an example?

Sorry for the late reply.

[Empa]

In my trading I take up a position with the belief that the market will go a certain way... If however it moves a couple of ticks in the opposite direction I realise I got it wrong and trade out immediately.

Thats the beauty of trading, when u trade out u can start again straight away.

However having said that I know that its not always that easy and u can find yourself hanging onto a losing trade in the hope that it will come back your way. When I started trading I lost huge chunks off my bank many times over because of this.

You're right at 100%.
Must immediately withdraw from the wound, if odds starts moving in a losing side for you (up or down). Withdrew from the market, went to the next.

[Empa]

Hi Steev.
Try trading with the insurance bets.
This will reduce your losses in bad developments.
However, it is important to choose a very good insurance.

[evertonian]

Empa,

Are you talking horse racing markets or soccer markets ? They are two totally different markets and require totally different approaches to profit on them. Your market strategy will differ according to each market you trade I'm afraid .As a beginner you need to look at each market and see where you can potentially cut losses / ride a trend etc ? Football and Horse racing is totally different. As to your 1.5 4.5 theory . have you looked at your staking on this ? Trading on football isn't this easy unfortunately !

Cheers !

[lord]

If this was a one off trade and you were never returning to Betangel letting it ride would be fine. But if you take it over a period of time - a month or year and monitor your percenatge of profit and loss of each trade it focuses the strategy.

If you have a spreadsheet with a list of percentage p +l it helps, and you will definitely cut out more quickly and take a smaller percentage loss.