Help required, nay needed

[m4rkwatson]

Hi everyone -

I've always thought that I'd be cut out for sports trading as I have a unhealthy interest in sport, I like 'gambling', I love spreadsheets and I'm an analyst. My biggest problems are that I'm very impulsive, I trust systems over experimentation, and I'm too greedy - which essentially cancels out anything positive from the former - with the end result that I've often dived headfirst into system style betting, and had most of my torso bitten off.

So, after a couple of years of building up spreadsheets with no outlet, I'm back to give it another go. I've followed Bet Angel on Twitter for a while, and always thought that I'd probably end up giving it a go, so registered and have gone through the academy a couple of times - 5 years ago I would have spent 45 seconds on it and then lost my house in a month - it seems like something that is better learnt by doing rather than studying - plus coincidentally a friend sent me about a months worth of Betfair price data, and asked me what I could see in the numbers, and I've gone headlong into the data. I've also had a look through the forums too. This is disciplined for me.

So I'm guessing what I'm about to ask next will be met by a lot of eye-rolling and here we go agains, and I sincerely apologise for wasting everyone's time, but please bear with me.

So, reading the forums it is clear that most of you are out/advise to be out before the race even starts, but trying to find a trend and pattern in everything has led me to looking at the betfair price files and the following pattern jumping out at me: 90-95% of horses with a Betfair SP of 8 or less increase their price by at least 10% in play. The 5-10% that dont, win. The winnings from the 90-95% outweigh the losses from the 5-10% by around 20/30:1 though. 3 years ago I would have automated a SP lay on horses with a SP price of 8 or below and cashed out when the price hit 10% higher, and then wouldn't have been able to understand why I lost £100 a day. But you experienced guys and girls rarely touch in play. Can you save me 6 months of head scratching and tell me why this system clearly doesnt work.

Thanks, in advance

Mark

[Kafkaesque]

Hi everyone -

I've always thought that I'd be cut out for sports trading as I have a unhealthy interest in sport, I like 'gambling', I love spreadsheets and I'm an analyst. My biggest problems are that I'm very impulsive, I trust systems over experimentation, and I'm too greedy - which essentially cancels out anything positive from the former - with the end result that I've often dived headfirst into system style betting, and had most of my torso bitten off.

So, after a couple of years of building up spreadsheets with no outlet, I'm back to give it another go. I've followed Bet Angel on Twitter for a while, and always thought that I'd probably end up giving it a go, so registered and have gone through the academy a couple of times - 5 years ago I would have spent 45 seconds on it and then lost my house in a month - it seems like something that is better learnt by doing rather than studying - plus coincidentally a friend sent me about a months worth of Betfair price data, and asked me what I could see in the numbers, and I've gone headlong into the data. I've also had a look through the forums too. This is disciplined for me.

So I'm guessing what I'm about to ask next will be met by a lot of eye-rolling and here we go agains, and I sincerely apologise for wasting everyone's time, but please bear with me.

So, reading the forums it is clear that most of you are out/advise to be out before the race even starts, but trying to find a trend and pattern in everything has led me to looking at the betfair price files and the following pattern jumping out at me: 90-95% of horses with a Betfair SP of 8 or less increase their price by at least 10% in play. The 5-10% that dont, win. The winnings from the 90-95% outweigh the losses from the 5-10% by around 20/30:1 though. 3 years ago I would have automated a SP lay on horses with a SP price of 8 or below and cashed out when the price hit 10% higher, and then wouldn't have been able to understand why I lost £100 a day. But you experienced guys and girls rarely touch in play. Can you save me 6 months of head scratching and tell me why this system clearly doesnt work.

Thanks, in advance

Mark

Hi Mark

I don't do horses, so I cannot help with your specific question.

That said we, as a community on here including myself, are quick to jump on and point out when someone pops round this way, without putting any thought into it, aside from assuming it being an easy and guarenteed payday. And that this forum is available to supply getting rich quick with no effort. With that in mind, I'd also conversely like to appriciate a brilliant first post and wish you all the best if you do move forward with this in one way or another.

I hope someone with knowledge on the horses comes along with an answer for you.

[Derek27]

Hi Mark, welcome to the forum.

90-95% of horses with a Betfair SP of 8 or less increase their price by at least 10% in play. The 5-10% that dont, win. The winnings from the 90-95% outweigh the losses from the 5-10% by around 20/30:1 though.

Not quite sure how you arrived at that?

If 90% of the time a horses price increases by at least 10% you could make a 10% profit 90% of the time by closing trade in-running at the higher price. But surely the other 10% of the time you'd make a 100% loss cancelling out any profit?

£10 * 90 - £100 * 10 = -£100

[BetScalper]

Hi everyone -

I've always thought that I'd be cut out for sports trading as I have a unhealthy interest in sport, I like 'gambling', I love spreadsheets and I'm an analyst. My biggest problems are that I'm very impulsive, I trust systems over experimentation, and I'm too greedy - which essentially cancels out anything positive from the former - with the end result that I've often dived headfirst into system style betting, and had most of my torso bitten off.

So, after a couple of years of building up spreadsheets with no outlet, I'm back to give it another go. I've followed Bet Angel on Twitter for a while, and always thought that I'd probably end up giving it a go, so registered and have gone through the academy a couple of times - 5 years ago I would have spent 45 seconds on it and then lost my house in a month - it seems like something that is better learnt by doing rather than studying - plus coincidentally a friend sent me about a months worth of Betfair price data, and asked me what I could see in the numbers, and I've gone headlong into the data. I've also had a look through the forums too. This is disciplined for me.

So I'm guessing what I'm about to ask next will be met by a lot of eye-rolling and here we go agains, and I sincerely apologise for wasting everyone's time, but please bear with me.

So, reading the forums it is clear that most of you are out/advise to be out before the race even starts, but trying to find a trend and pattern in everything has led me to looking at the betfair price files and the following pattern jumping out at me: 90-95% of horses with a Betfair SP of 8 or less increase their price by at least 10% in play. The 5-10% that dont, win. The winnings from the 90-95% outweigh the losses from the 5-10% by around 20/30:1 though. 3 years ago I would have automated a SP lay on horses with a SP price of 8 or below and cashed out when the price hit 10% higher, and then wouldn't have been able to understand why I lost £100 a day. But you experienced guys and girls rarely touch in play. Can you save me 6 months of head scratching and tell me why this system clearly doesnt work.

Thanks, in advance

Mark

Probably because you only make 10% when it works and lose 100% if one of them wins.

Example: Lay £10 @ 8.0 = £70 loss if it wins as opposed to £1.00 profit (10%) if it loses as you greened up etc.

[m4rkwatson]

Hi everyone -

I've always thought that I'd be cut out for sports trading as I have a unhealthy interest in sport, I like 'gambling', I love spreadsheets and I'm an analyst. My biggest problems are that I'm very impulsive, I trust systems over experimentation, and I'm too greedy - which essentially cancels out anything positive from the former - with the end result that I've often dived headfirst into system style betting, and had most of my torso bitten off.

So, after a couple of years of building up spreadsheets with no outlet, I'm back to give it another go. I've followed Bet Angel on Twitter for a while, and always thought that I'd probably end up giving it a go, so registered and have gone through the academy a couple of times - 5 years ago I would have spent 45 seconds on it and then lost my house in a month - it seems like something that is better learnt by doing rather than studying - plus coincidentally a friend sent me about a months worth of Betfair price data, and asked me what I could see in the numbers, and I've gone headlong into the data. I've also had a look through the forums too. This is disciplined for me.

So I'm guessing what I'm about to ask next will be met by a lot of eye-rolling and here we go agains, and I sincerely apologise for wasting everyone's time, but please bear with me.

So, reading the forums it is clear that most of you are out/advise to be out before the race even starts, but trying to find a trend and pattern in everything has led me to looking at the betfair price files and the following pattern jumping out at me: 90-95% of horses with a Betfair SP of 8 or less increase their price by at least 10% in play. The 5-10% that dont, win. The winnings from the 90-95% outweigh the losses from the 5-10% by around 20/30:1 though. 3 years ago I would have automated a SP lay on horses with a SP price of 8 or below and cashed out when the price hit 10% higher, and then wouldn't have been able to understand why I lost £100 a day. But you experienced guys and girls rarely touch in play. Can you save me 6 months of head scratching and tell me why this system clearly doesnt work.

Thanks, in advance

Mark

Hi Mark

I don't do horses, so I cannot help with your specific question.

That said we, as a community on here including myself, are quick to jump on and point out when someone pops round this way, without putting any thought into it, aside from assuming it being an easy and guarenteed payday. And that this forum is available to supply getting rich quick with no effort. With that in mind, I'd also conversely like to appriciate a brilliant first post and wish you all the best if you do move forward with this in one way or another.

I hope someone with knowledge on the horses comes along with an answer for you.

Thanks for your reply. I'm hoping to be around here for a while, I have been stalking the forums (without registering) for a month or so reading (and trying to understand) as much as I could, I have also (as mentioned) gone through the academy a couple of time and also unsuccessfully had a go with the trial version - but the transition from what I think is a fairly advanced 'gambler' to understanding trading and automated trading feels like the jump from Primary School to A level Maths at the moment, and I'm trying to learn the terminology. I'd imagine that I wont be able to contribute much in the short to medium term as there are clearly better analysts and mathematicians on here than me, but in time I'd hope that I can.

I'm certainly not looking for 'get rich quick' advice, as a) I don't think there's a better feeling than developing something that works successfully for yourself, b) I like to understand rather than piggy back, and, c) 'get rich quick' could never be possible as I've got 30 years of 'get poor even quicker' behind me - this is more about stopping the 'go bankrupt imminently' method.

[TraderFred]

Probably same reason as why laying blindly at 1.01 doesn’t work despite looking as if it should produce healthy profits when looking at the data.

Whilst it will look good on paper, you still have to get matched. A lot of the time when the price goes to your 10% you will be part matched, or even unmatched if you’re not at the front of the queue. When they go on to lose, you will lose the lot every time.

Though not sure if you are saying you’ve tried it and it doesn’t work, or you’re asking why it won’t work before you’ve tried it. If it’s the latter, give it a go, see what happens, you might be on to something.

[JTEDL]

Are you trying to make 10% of stake?

If so, say you lay a horse at 8.0 - for £10, it drifts 10% and you make £1.

But sooner or later you'll get one that doesn't drift at all, steams in and wins - you then lose £70 which was the full liability.