Next Tory Leader & May's Exit Date (2019)

[ShaunWhite]

I used to love politics when it was boring and grey. Brexit is like when your favourite band has a #1 and suddenly everyone's wearing the t-shirt without knowing who's who and who does what and what it all means.

[greenmark]

People seem to forget Boris was a remainer until the opportunity arose to continue a schoolboy rivalry with Cameron and he adopted a contrary position purely as an intellectual exercise and to get to the position he's on now. He'll win the position by saying what the hardliners want to hear, but is smart enough and duplicitous enough to not take us into a no deal/no transition.

Well, you may well be right. But Let's whisper it, cos No Deal seems to be the main negotiating factor for Johnson. Whereas, Stewart was saying "no deal is lunacy". We have to strike a compromise between cowards (remainers, his term, not mine) and foolhardiness (no dealers, his term, but I agree with him).
And given Stewart is a professional diplomat rather than a gaff-ridden oaf, who would you prefer to conduct the most important negotiation of your lifetime (well, mine anyway).
But it seems that BoJo as PM is inevitable.
Wouldn't like to be Hislop/Merton right now.
Just looked at the odds. Johnson 1.27.

[superfrank]

I used to love politics when it was boring and grey.

Like in the USSR?

2016 was the first time in decades that people got a real choice - not the phoney GE bullshit of "24 hours to save the NHS", "we'll spend more than them" crap - but a real choice on how Britain is governed.

[ShaunWhite]

I used to love politics when it was boring and grey.

Like in the USSR?

2016 was the first time in decades that people got a real choice on how Britain is governed.

errr what's the USSR got to do with it? I'm talking about the times when the most exciting thing on the agenda was John Major liking peas.

I want to get onboard frank, brexit is happening and I don't want to be pissed off forever, but I can't manage on 'hope' alone when Leave was sold on the basis of the EU begging us for deals, and we all know what happened to that lie.

What do you think the upside of leaving is? Sell it to me. I see a lot of hate for the EU from Leavers but nothing concrete about the future apart from wishy washy John Bull imagery and this strange idea the world will want our already overpriced goods with an extra big fat WTO tariff on top. I'm not taking the piss frank or being devisive I just can't see what you're seeing. I can only see the things I'm losing, suddenly 90% of my world, my Europe, has been annexed, it's like someones putting a fence around the village.

[Emmson]

People seem to forget Boris was a remainer until the opportunity arose to continue a schoolboy rivalry with Cameron and he adopted a contrary position purely as an intellectual exercise and to get to the position he's on now. He'll win the position by saying what the hardliners want to hear, but is smart enough and duplicitous enough to not take us into a no deal/no transition.

The man is a total charlatan with no moral character, that was never the case with any other Prime Minister of the last 100+ years, even the controversial ones. What have we become?

[firlandsfarm]

The man is a total charlatan with no moral character, that was never the case with any other Prime Minister of the last 100+ years, even the controversial ones. What have we become?

God I know history was my worst subject but I could have sworn Blair's premiership fell within the last 100 years!

[greenmark]

I'd forgotten about that low tariff proposal in the event of no deal.
But it hadn't dawned on me that it could mean lower priced imports from outside the EU.

And both documents seem to imply damage to UK exporters could be mitigated by government payments (using the £39 billion in Bakers case).

Has raised more questions for me to look into.
Still quite worried that Baker's theory is if we leave with no deal we manage it while negotiating trade deals with the world and the EU.

Surely thats what we've failed to do thus far. Is everyone just going to fall in line with what we want just cos its 1st November.

Thought provoking.
And thanks again for the links.

Who would be PM in the current situation?
Unless they agree a tariff-free deal the party they represent will be consigned to opposition for a long time once the impact of tariffs starts to show.
If someone can present a different argument to the no-deal export crash then I'm all ears.
Perhaps damaged exporters can dive into imported goods markets where tariffs have raised prices and crushed demand.

The no-deal Brexit tariffs are nothing to be afraid of
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/t ... afraid-of/

Boris has reportedly agreed to pursue a "clean Brexit" - Steve Baker MP recently published a paper that he and others believe could be the basis of the way forward...
https://www.stevebaker.info/wp-content/ ... Brexit.pdf

Of course many Remainers will rubbish ANY alternative plans (because they want Brexit stopped) but there are other ways forward.

[wearthefoxhat]

I used to love politics when it was boring and grey.

Like in the USSR?

2016 was the first time in decades that people got a real choice on how Britain is governed.

errr what's the USSR got to do with it? I'm talking about the times when the most exciting thing on the agenda was John Major liking peas.

and Currie..(Edwina of course)

[firlandsfarm]

and Currie..(Edwina of course)

Shit … I was going to post that one but got distracted! Is it right that he caught Salmonella?

[firlandsfarm]

Still quite worried that Baker's theory is if we leave with no deal we manage it while negotiating trade deals with the world and the EU.

Surely thats what we've failed to do thus far. Is everyone just going to fall in line with what we want just cos its 1st November.

We don't know if we have failed to negotiate deals around the world because we are not allowed to individually agree a trade deal with another country while a member of the EU. I suspect that Dr Fox has been quietly agreeing trade deals with many countries around the world ready to launch them as soon as we leave without a deal and are no longer bound by EU rules.

[ShaunWhite]

and Currie..(Edwina of course)

"Eggwina" as she was known as.

[LeTiss]

Just imagine if Spitting Image would return...........they'd have a field day!

Steptoe Corbyn and Aabacus Abbott
Jimmy Krankie Sturgeon
Boris and various Tories
Horrible little Sadiq Khan
Trump
Macron, Merkel
Not to mention Farage and of course journalists like Jon "I've never seen so many white people" Snow

It would be hilarious, albeit libellous

[sionascaig]

Find it strange that the backstop arrangements for NIreland seem to have disappeared from current political debate... Last poll I heard about had support for a united Ireland at over 60% and an Independent Scotland at over 50%...

The only tory leadership candidate who seems prepared to deal with these issues is Rory... Can't help thinking its goodbye to a United Kingdom unless they get this mess resolved soon.

[superfrank]

errr what's the USSR got to do with it? I'm talking about the times when the most exciting thing on the agenda was John Major liking peas.

I want to get onboard frank, brexit is happening and I don't want to be pissed off forever, but I can't manage on 'hope' alone when Leave was sold on the basis of the EU begging us for deals, and we all know what happened to that lie.

What do you think the upside of leaving is? Sell it to me. I see a lot of hate for the EU from Leavers but nothing concrete about the future apart from wishy washy John Bull imagery and this strange idea the world will want our already overpriced goods with an extra big fat WTO tariff on top. I'm not taking the piss frank or being devisive I just can't see what you're seeing. I can only see the things I'm losing, suddenly 90% of my world, my Europe, has been annexed, it's like someones putting a fence around the village.

John Major signed us up to Maastricht - that was a massive change and we should have had a referendum on it like other countries did.

I don't see the point in arguing about the referendum issues again - we had the debate and there was a clear winner (by 1.2M votes) - it was then the duty of parliament to implement Brexit (irrespective of whether they agreed with it).

I don't trust Boris either, but he's the candidate most likely to deliver a clean Brexit. Farage has said he'd do a deal with the devil to get us out of the EU cleanly - I feel the same way and so am prepared to back Boris for now.

[ShaunWhite]

The only tory leadership candidate who seems prepared to deal with these issues is Rory... Can't help thinking its goodbye to a United Kingdom unless they get this mess resolved soon.

The person most likely to get non-tories to vote tory seems to be the logical choice rather than choosing Marmite. Decent military career too and straight talking. I pencilled him in as was one to watch in 2014 when he was elected by MPs from all parties as Chairman of the Defence Select Committee, the youngest Chair of a select committee in parliamentary history. I always thought he behaved with maturity and dignity.

It's a shame realpolitik seems to have died in this country otherwise he'd stand a good chance.

I've been cathcing up on those series of The Thick of It in iPlayer. Still as good as ever if you can stop the nausea from the wobbly camera work.
What's striking is it looks so old !!! Series 1 was only in 2005 but no smartphones and CRT montors on all the desks.