Hi,
After a brief foray into Forex trading, I returned to Betfair today to try my new strategy using minimum stakes and seem to have done ok. I'd previously spent about 2 years off and on studying many different strategies looking for that secret that all the successful traders seem to have found. I've always kept my eyes on this forum, but it was one forum post about the Betfair graphs that made me retry the trading again. I may be speaking too soon here, but I was always under the impression that the people who made serious money at Betfair trading were some sort of trading gods and had lightning response times etc. but today has made me think different.......or maybe today was just an easy day to trade?
just my opinion.
Kev
A return to trading
-
mister man
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:10 pm
kev good luck and welcome back, its just a view but ive found when i get beyond a certain level of trading, the sums are so big that i lose judgement/bottle etc, at min stakes you are more serene, at serious stakes your not, big difference to your decision making even though you try not to let it be so. thats one the secrets imho.
The only thing I would say Kev is about stakes.
I have lost count of the amount of strategies i have tested with minimum stakes and had success, but when I scale up the stakes it doesn't work. There are a couple of reasons for this.
1) When you increase you stakes you behave differently. When you see (depending on stakes) 10's or 100's of pounds disappearing down the plug it's easy to bottle it. If it was a couple of quid you may let it ride to see what happens. The great Mark Cotton (founder of pricewise) has a rule in his book "Value Betting" circa 1993. It says something like...."Make every bet mean something. If it makes a difference to you then you think twice about placing it. So it is a sum that is worth winning or painful if you lose it". This is something I have adopted in my betting and it works well.
2) The stakes you apply change the behaviour of the market. If it is a weak market and you bung in 1k the price may change, where as £2 wouldn't make any difference. PW touched on this in the post when someone asked about a training mode in Bet Angel.
Anyway good luck to you Kev
I have lost count of the amount of strategies i have tested with minimum stakes and had success, but when I scale up the stakes it doesn't work. There are a couple of reasons for this.
1) When you increase you stakes you behave differently. When you see (depending on stakes) 10's or 100's of pounds disappearing down the plug it's easy to bottle it. If it was a couple of quid you may let it ride to see what happens. The great Mark Cotton (founder of pricewise) has a rule in his book "Value Betting" circa 1993. It says something like...."Make every bet mean something. If it makes a difference to you then you think twice about placing it. So it is a sum that is worth winning or painful if you lose it". This is something I have adopted in my betting and it works well.
2) The stakes you apply change the behaviour of the market. If it is a weak market and you bung in 1k the price may change, where as £2 wouldn't make any difference. PW touched on this in the post when someone asked about a training mode in Bet Angel.
Anyway good luck to you Kev
Hi,
Yeh not so good today, maybe I cut my losses too soon and should have stuck with my belief in which way the prices were heading. Doesnt help trying to do it at work as well
Still at least its a profit.
Yeh not so good today, maybe I cut my losses too soon and should have stuck with my belief in which way the prices were heading. Doesnt help trying to do it at work as well
Still at least its a profit.You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.