Just got a crazy idea, but for it to work, i need to know what the odds generally will be on under 2,5 goals, if ther is a goal within the first 20 minutes of a game, And if the start odds is aprox 2.1
Does anyone have a feel for this.?
Under 2,5 goals Odds
I used to have a fairly complex staking plan on Over 2.5 Goals. I worked out that if I backed pre-match, a goal within 35mins would result in a greening up - obviously the earlier the better for most profit. If it's 0-0 after 35mins, then redding up would lose me 1/3 of my original stake.
I'm sure many will relate to my problems though - at £10-£20 stakes I had a succession of good results, however when I started to increase the stakes to £50-£100 the bets started to go against me!
I'm sure many will relate to my problems though - at £10-£20 stakes I had a succession of good results, however when I started to increase the stakes to £50-£100 the bets started to go against me!
I have some created some models based on the 2.5 goal markets, I spent years doing them. But you know what? Mostly they are a waste of time. Let me elaborate.....
My mechanical type trading is getting less and less. I just watch whats happening in the match and bet with my feelings. The time decay on these type of markets nearly always follow the expected model, but that hardly ever takes into account what is actually happening in the match. The trick is to find where the market is out of sync with the true odds. The market will ALWAYS correct itself. If you get in at the right time you can get big gains with a small downside.
Example:
A weak team (say West Ham) is away from home and leading 0-1 against Spurs. The time decay on the U/O 1.5 odds are trading at 1.52 with 9 mins left. Spurs are battering the WHU goal, they are camped out on the edge of the box. Harry has sent on all his strikers and is jumping up and down on the touch line. Avram Grant is sitting at the back of the dugout with is head in his hands reading the Premier league managers book of excuses. So you have 9 mins + any injury time (ave 3 mins?).
You have little down side for 13% of the most intense and open action of the match. You could even red up at 89 mins at 1.28 ish.
Whats the bet?
If the match was 1-1 and both teams were happy with a point and they were playing that way, the model of decay would be the same but the risk much greater. My point is you need to see what is happening and plan your bet according whilst taking advantage of the market. Hope this makes sense to someone.
My mechanical type trading is getting less and less. I just watch whats happening in the match and bet with my feelings. The time decay on these type of markets nearly always follow the expected model, but that hardly ever takes into account what is actually happening in the match. The trick is to find where the market is out of sync with the true odds. The market will ALWAYS correct itself. If you get in at the right time you can get big gains with a small downside.
Example:
A weak team (say West Ham) is away from home and leading 0-1 against Spurs. The time decay on the U/O 1.5 odds are trading at 1.52 with 9 mins left. Spurs are battering the WHU goal, they are camped out on the edge of the box. Harry has sent on all his strikers and is jumping up and down on the touch line. Avram Grant is sitting at the back of the dugout with is head in his hands reading the Premier league managers book of excuses. So you have 9 mins + any injury time (ave 3 mins?).
You have little down side for 13% of the most intense and open action of the match. You could even red up at 89 mins at 1.28 ish.
Whats the bet?
If the match was 1-1 and both teams were happy with a point and they were playing that way, the model of decay would be the same but the risk much greater. My point is you need to see what is happening and plan your bet according whilst taking advantage of the market. Hope this makes sense to someone.
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BLUFFdisko
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 11:34 am
The odds will get bigger if ther is a goal, so i dont understand your odds, is it because you should have put in a 2 instead of a 1 infront of the oddsmugsgame wrote:These are pretty accurate approximations.
start 2.1 if a goal is scored the odds will be about
5 mins 1.34
10 mins 1.38
15 mins 1.43
20 mins 1.5
Is this what you need?
Bluff,
These are OVER 2.5 goals with 1 goal scored.
If you want the UNDER prices they are as follows:
5mins UNDER 3.95 OVER 1.34
10 mins UNDER 3.62 OVER 1.38
15 mins UNDER 3.31 OVER 1.43
20 mins UNDER 3.02 OVER 1.50
Sorry about the confusion
These are OVER 2.5 goals with 1 goal scored.
If you want the UNDER prices they are as follows:
5mins UNDER 3.95 OVER 1.34
10 mins UNDER 3.62 OVER 1.38
15 mins UNDER 3.31 OVER 1.43
20 mins UNDER 3.02 OVER 1.50
Sorry about the confusion
Love the commentary M, you can picture the scene
I've done lots of statistical analyses on football and horses myself. All for straight punting before I found out about trading.
I agree with you totally, trading feels like a skill to me, something that you pick up, like riding a bike, or doing a step over turn at football,
cheers, P
I've done lots of statistical analyses on football and horses myself. All for straight punting before I found out about trading.
I agree with you totally, trading feels like a skill to me, something that you pick up, like riding a bike, or doing a step over turn at football,
cheers, P