Australian Horse Racing

[mcgoo]

Thanks for that. I generally pick what looks like a scalpy market but I have been burnt so often by fast directional changes that keep going and never come back...so if it goes against me by 2 ticks or so I am out before the damage is too great. I have trouble thinking in probabilities so I just work on my discipline which I historically have been good at in life.. I decided to avoid scalping as the downside outweighs the upside by some distance for me. Perhaps one day I will get it but for the moment it remains the blackest art of the trading strategies to try for me (that said after reading you post I scalped one tick at Rosehill- -baby steps )
Thanks again-appreciated

Rosehill R3 was another decent scalping market. The below result was achieved with 1 tick scalps on the front 2 runners, tbh I should have been more aggressive with my stakes as I was getting filled with no issues:


Rosehill scalping.png

What approach would you have taken to that market other than scalping? The price was barely moving so not sure what else you could have done?

You say the downside outweighs the upside for you but surely by not touching them you are missing out on returns, you need to learn how to scalp markets better and you should know by now from this thread that Rosehill and Randwick are some of the best scalping markets you will find. So there is no better place to try it.

Try it in the next at Rosehill...

That's impressive. Roughly how many scalps? Would love to know your stakes but won't expect you to give too much away .The next at Rosehill has a short price fav but I'll give it a go.
Some of my thoughts:
I guess I just don't trust the movements to be stable. I also am not sure when to enter (what average increase $ in matching, how long before the jump, when to stop -i.e. 1 minute out seems to invoke bigger moves -and at what price to enter..going in at the bottom or top of the range is no guarantee..it always seems to be too late..scalping gives me analysis paralysis I have tried just relaxing with it but looking for swings seems much easier to me and far less stressful.I pick an entry and pick an exit and then if my exit is crossed that's it. Scalping seems to mean that you need to get it right multiple times.I am missing out for sure but my heart rate stays lower. I am grateful for your help as the years of trying have certainly made me wonder whether all this is worth it and perhaps I don't have it but I guess I am still here.Cheers
Edit: yup that was nearly my biggest loss of the day ..

[Derek27]

If you want to practice scalping you don't necessarily have to use big stakes. Just wait for the market to stabilise and feed in back and lay bets, preferably lay bet first if you think the market is more likely to move up and vice versa. Or you could put them both in at the same time if you feel the market is stable enough.

[PDC]

R4 at Rosehill was another good scalping market (no surprises there).

The shorter priced favourite to me meant it was always going to be a good scalping market. It wanted to drift slowly so therefore it made sense to be more heavily weighted on the lay side and or enter your opening position on the lay side and then look to close. Once it was pushed up to 3.0/3.05 it was likely to stick around the crossover for a while as is often the case at a crossover in a scalping market.

I think you are massively over thinking scalping. I was just firing in orders on the lay side and then off setting them on the back side. I started about 4 minutes out and carried on until the last couple were loading, I just go from one race to the next when I finish on the previous race.

I used to trade right up to the off but no longer do after some bad hits when a horse breaks badly and BF haven't gone inplay.

[PDC]

Edit: yup that was nearly my biggest loss of the day ..

Can you describe what you did, then we can help point you in the right direction.

[PDC]

First loss of the session at Caulfield

Been a good session so far though so won't moan, time for my mid-session tea and toast break

[Derek27]

No losses so far but not getting much out of Caulfield.

[mcgoo]

I layd the 2nd fav as it looked to me to be on a drift...it moved against me by 3 ticks immediately. I hung in and managed to get out with one tick loss. I backed the fav and it shifted by 2 or 3 ticks and kept going so I bailed.
I think perhaps you chaps are just good at it . I pick a direction and boom it moves 4 ticks the other way in seconds ..every single time it feels like..Even cross overs seem to hold no favour.It hasn't changed in years. I use $20 stakes and generally lose 70-90% of my scalping attempts.If I hadn't seen it myself I wouldn't have believed it.I seem to be (wrong) psychic
I look for ranges and more for trends now and that got me to break even.
PS: I had a crack at SCst R2 (H) and exactly the same loss as Rosehill.
Advice greatly appreciated though-thank you
Edit: I should point out that I trade every day 7 days a week ( a few hours a day)..just to learn every chance I get. I have been able to do this for the last 5 months as I haven't been working. I can't stay up to trade the UK though (much to my disappointment) with a 5 year old daughter to look after. I have tried the automation path as I know I am no natural trader ..and automation removes my emotion but it is just as (if not more so) a tall order as manual.
Trading though has taken me on a journey to learn coding/software development and to realise a hell of a lot about my nature.I think it is one of the best things one can try to do if you have the passion, time + money.You guys seem to really have it and I envy you but I'll keep going until I stop and will think hard on your advice.
PS: That cat thinks I am an idiot and should just play with her..and let her have those gleaming fish out of the tank

[Derek27]

Got caught out by the dip but managed to recover. The top 3 in that one were scalpable.

LoadRunnerInfoChartAction.jpg

[Derek27]

First loss of the night at Caulfield.

[Naffman]

First loss of the night at Caulfield.

Yeah expected the fave to drift through 4.0, only the sheer amount of money pushed it down

[eightbo]

Newcastle R5 was bonkers

[PDC]

I layd the 2nd fav as it looked to me to be on a drift...it moved against me by 3 ticks immediately. I hung in and managed to get out with one tick loss. I backed the fav and it shifted by 2 or 3 ticks and kept going so I bailed.
I think perhaps you chaps are just good at it . I pick a direction and boom it moves 4 ticks the other way in seconds ..every single time it feels like..Even cross overs seem to hold no favour.It hasn't changed in years. I use $20 stakes and generally lose 70-90% of my scalping attempts.If I hadn't seen it myself I wouldn't have believed it.I seem to be (wrong) psychic
I look for ranges and more for trends now and that got me to break even.

Here are some thoughts on your post, bit slow replying as was having a break and then trying to reply between races:

You laid the 2nd fav and it shortened, so you then went and backed the fav. Think about that....they are the most likely linked runners, like a see saw if one goes down the other will (tend) go up. You tried to push down on both sides of the see saw and it snapped (you lost on both sides).

The 2nd fav shortened a bit as the fav was drifting. Your initial call was wrong, you should have been looking therefore for the fav to drift not shorten as well.

You are scalping, not swing trading, so when you call it wrong you need to be bailing your position quickly, not holding on hoping for it to come back. Bail, re-assess and go again. While you are waiting for the market to comeback you could be missing out on scalps. You called it wrong, get out, don't care about your ego being hurt because you called it wrong, it happens.

Don't pick a direction, let the market pick it for you. Sit and watch it and see what happens then fire. Or pop in some small stake orders and get a feel for it before putting in your proper sized orders.

Why are you using $20 stakes if you lose so much when scalping? All you are doing is making your losses bigger than they need to be and that will hurt and affect your mindset which will make you think more negatively about it going into the next and surprise surprise you lose again as you are going in expecting to lose.

Record your screen for the rest of Rosehill and watch it back when you have time, watch races multiple times until you understand what is happening and why.

Hope some of that helps, any other questions feel free to ask either here or on PM.

[Derek27]

Fav heavily backed but still scalpable.

LoadRunnerInfoChartAction.jpg

[eightbo]

Aaaaaaaaaaalmost a huge result at Rosehill, late lay-spike removed 50% of my profit. Nvm.

[PDC]

Aaaaaaaaaaalmost a huge result at Rosehill, late lay-spike removed 50% of my profit. Nvm.

I was looking for it to break 3.0 but it bounced and took a nice chunk of green with it unfortunately. Would have been the result of the night for me had it broken. Given the backing I thought it was going to. Was again very scalpable on the way down.