As I am a complete novice at trading I would like some advice please, after paper trading different systems within Bet Angel I have found Dutching to suit me best.I basically back all horses in the race, and choose 1 to bet with a 1% margin, giving me a book = 98.8%. 9 times out of 10 I am greened up apart from the margin horse, and I let it run in play. I have done quite well with this with a £1200 bank I average about £11 a race.
Can someone tell me if this is stupid, or can you only make money in trading price movements, because I find that difficult.
I would welcome some friendly help please
Thanks Rubino :
Help Please
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Nero Tulip
- Posts: 708
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
Over how many races are you averaging £11 ?
Gnerally speaking I don't think there's much wrong with the idea.
Gnerally speaking I don't think there's much wrong with the idea.
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Nero Tulip
- Posts: 708
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
It's difficult to completely understand exactly what you are doing, but if you manufacture a 'value' bet on a horse per market, then you cant really go wrong.
Of course, how you go about doing this is the tricky bit, there's no way for me to tell if you are being fortunate or not with your strategy, but if say you averaged £11 a race over 1000 races, then there's a fair chance you aren't lucky! Over 20 races is less convincing.
WHen you say something romping home hurts you, how so? You are lay dutching then I take it? Either way, if you get the job done before the off, and have better odds than the market thinks is fair then you've got a good chance. Though don't forget about commission's impact on your edge.
Of course, how you go about doing this is the tricky bit, there's no way for me to tell if you are being fortunate or not with your strategy, but if say you averaged £11 a race over 1000 races, then there's a fair chance you aren't lucky! Over 20 races is less convincing.
WHen you say something romping home hurts you, how so? You are lay dutching then I take it? Either way, if you get the job done before the off, and have better odds than the market thinks is fair then you've got a good chance. Though don't forget about commission's impact on your edge.
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TraderGray
- Posts: 36
- Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2009 3:59 pm
Hi Rubino
Without knowing exactly what you do it is difficult to comment fully but you seem to have found a strategy that works for you. I’d be interested to know your bet win/loss ratio and how much a loss, if you’ve had one, has cost you.
I use a similar strategy occasionally and, so far, have a 100% winning bet record, (a small sample of only 28 races in 6 weeks). On the few races where I have had unmatched bets my highest liability has been roughly 15 times my average win profit so a bet win/loss ratio for me of 15/1 would only be a break even situation.
Good luck with it all the same.
Without knowing exactly what you do it is difficult to comment fully but you seem to have found a strategy that works for you. I’d be interested to know your bet win/loss ratio and how much a loss, if you’ve had one, has cost you.
I use a similar strategy occasionally and, so far, have a 100% winning bet record, (a small sample of only 28 races in 6 weeks). On the few races where I have had unmatched bets my highest liability has been roughly 15 times my average win profit so a bet win/loss ratio for me of 15/1 would only be a break even situation.
Good luck with it all the same.
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donmacleod
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:58 pm
Hi Rubino,
For those that have queried the method of trading you are employing it is using Dutching by trading an expected in play price change.For those who have attended the Bet Angel course and have the booklet - Profitable Betting Exchange Strategies, this method is covered on page 45. If you have downloaded the Bet Angel User Guide from the web site this is covered on page 65. The entire field is backed but on one selection we back at larger odds which will not be matched before the off. Instead this bet is re-submitted when it goes in play and you are relying on the horse selected to drift a little. The problem is your liability is large and if your selected horse does not drift by the required amount and then goes on to win the race this large liability is then called in. You are having to make a judgement on how the actual race will pan out.I'm sure we would both like to hear from experienced traders who have had continued success with this method and feedback on the criteria used to select suitable horses for this trading method. More importantly what can you do to limit your liability when the selected horse starts to come in rather than drift. Like yourself I found myself winning £10 a race with this method and then suffered when a fairly short priced 5th favourite won a race I was trading on in a blanket finish. I could not find a way out to limit my liability.
For those that have queried the method of trading you are employing it is using Dutching by trading an expected in play price change.For those who have attended the Bet Angel course and have the booklet - Profitable Betting Exchange Strategies, this method is covered on page 45. If you have downloaded the Bet Angel User Guide from the web site this is covered on page 65. The entire field is backed but on one selection we back at larger odds which will not be matched before the off. Instead this bet is re-submitted when it goes in play and you are relying on the horse selected to drift a little. The problem is your liability is large and if your selected horse does not drift by the required amount and then goes on to win the race this large liability is then called in. You are having to make a judgement on how the actual race will pan out.I'm sure we would both like to hear from experienced traders who have had continued success with this method and feedback on the criteria used to select suitable horses for this trading method. More importantly what can you do to limit your liability when the selected horse starts to come in rather than drift. Like yourself I found myself winning £10 a race with this method and then suffered when a fairly short priced 5th favourite won a race I was trading on in a blanket finish. I could not find a way out to limit my liability.
This is the Method i use but with the Ladder. The advantage about using thed ladder is you can get out and the Liability is much less. With dutching the liability is very high if the selection goe,s in and your hands are tied as you have no way of trading out, you can release the trade calculator for dutching but if you try to hedge it can be quite dangerous especially using large stakes as BA has calculated the dutching using different stakes.donmacleod wrote:Hi Rubino,
For those that have queried the method of trading you are employing it is using Dutching by trading an expected in play price change.For those who have attended the Bet Angel course and have the booklet - Profitable Betting Exchange Strategies, this method is covered on page 45. If you have downloaded the Bet Angel User Guide from the web site this is covered on page 65. The entire field is backed but on one selection we back at larger odds which will not be matched before the off. Instead this bet is re-submitted when it goes in play and you are relying on
the horse selected to drift a little. The problem is your liability is large and if your selected horse does not drift by the required amount and then goes on to win the race this large liability is then
called in. You are having to make a judgement on how the actual race will pan out.I'm sure we would both like to hear from experienced traders who have had continued success with this method and feedback on the criteria used to select suitable horses for this trading method. More importantly what can you do to limit your liability when the selected horse starts to come in rather than drift. Like yourself I found myself winning £10 a race with this method and then suffered when a fairly short priced 5th favourite won a race I was trading on in a blanket finish. I could not find a way out to limit my liability.