OK so 2010 was disappointing from horse racing point of view due to the bad weather we’ve been having. It’s still snow covered outside my house and it does require extraordinary level of stablisation when setting foot outside of my house. But looking at trading point of view it has been a successfully year. Not that my return is anyway nearing comparable to some pros out here, but what I’ve gained in terms of knowledge is phenomenal.
Some of things I’ve learnt this year are:
1) There’s no silver bullet – There is no single blog, article, idea that you would be able to rely on making money as if they go on trees. It does require a lot of dedication, learning, discipline, some money to sustain initial losses and lot of hard work. If you start using Bet Fair or Bet Angel thinking that there’s a secret spreadsheet formula or certain strategy that you will be able to use at will and generate money then you will be disappointed. There are no doubt certain approaches that are advatengeous than others but it is important to recognise them when they occur and using them optimally, by having right timing, attitude & discipline, that you profit from them.
2) Close your trade in time – It’s important that you don’t take your trade in-play out of desperation or last resort. Some people may have taking their trade in-play as part of their strategy and its fine as long as you understand the risk/return ratio and you can get it to work in your favour. But simply taking your open position in-play to avoid losses resulting from pre-off play is simply not a viable option.
3) Recognising patterns requires experience – Profiting from trading whether pre-off, in-play, or combination require recogising patters and their significant and their relationship to price/odds. This is best mastered by participating in as many markets and situation as possible without being wiped out. Acquiring the ability to recognise patterns and profiting from it requires considerable level of practice which in turn requires plenty of money (to withstand initial losses), discipline, mental agility and luck.
4) Avoid mistakes – Lot of times you see making small but steady profit across number of markets but see it wiped out by a bad luck or in most cases sear stupidity. The way to increase the win ratio is but avoiding some of the silliest howlers and I’m just as guilty as most:
a. Greening in-play
b. Staking incorrect amount
c. Staking at wrong time (one side of trade is pre-off & other in-play)
d. Letting open position go in-play
e. Greening up a winning position
f. Letting the whole trade go to loss in a hope
g. Others
5) Hope is not great – Hope is one of the great mechanisms whereby a simple human being can achieve great feats but when it comes to trading its one of the most destructive human traits coming in to play. Whether pre-off or in-play when your positions is in loss, you hope and pray that the market is wrong and that you’re right and that sense will prevail and you will be positive territory soon. Alas, more often than not, the market is correct and you’re wrong and many times it pays to attend to what the market is telling you than what you want to listen.
Although personal experience of 2010 has been slightly more positive and my personal efforts have not been as heroic as this poem might imply, this comes very close to summing up my 2010:
Out of the night that covers me,
Black as the Pit from pole to pole,
I thank whatever gods may be
For my unconquerable soul.
In the fell clutch of circumstance
I have not winced nor cried aloud.
Under the bludgeonings of chance
My head is bloody, but unbowed.
Beyond this place of wrath and tears
Looms but the Horror of the shade,
And yet the menace of the years
Finds, and shall find, me unafraid.
It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll.
I am the master of my fate:
I am the captain of my soul.
My resolutions for 2011 is going to the opposite of what I’ve discussed thus far but to put it more concretly, I’m not going to:
1) Not directly relating to trading but I’m not going to drink alcohol for at least three months
2) Never let go trade in-play by ensuring that its all greened/redded up 10-20 seconds before off
3) Whenever experience a loss, write down of the experience, reasons for the loss and what could’ve been done differently to mitigate the loss. I’ve found writing to be helpful even on therapeutic basis.
Best of luck for 2011
2010 Review & 2011 Resolutions
OK so December 2010 was disappointing from horse racing point of view due to the bad weather we’ve been having. It’s still snow covered outside my house and it does require extraordinary level of stablisation when setting foot outside of my house. But looking at trading point of view it has been a successfully year. Not that my return is anyway nearing comparable to some pros out here, but what I’ve gained in terms of knowledge is phenomenal.
Some of things I’ve learnt this year are:
1) There’s no silver bullet – There is no single blog, article, idea that you would be able to rely on making money as if they go on trees. It does require a lot of dedication, learning, discipline, some money to sustain initial losses and lot of hard work. If you start using Bet Fair or Bet Angel thinking that there’s a secret spreadsheet formula or certain strategy that you will be able to use at will and generate money then you will be disappointed. There are no doubt certain approaches that are advatengeous than others but it is important to recognise them when they occur and using them optimally, by having right timing, attitude & discipline, that you profit from them.
2) Close your trade in time – It’s important that you don’t take your trade in-play out of desperation or last resort. Some people may have taking their trade in-play as part of their strategy and its fine as long as you understand the risk/return ratio and you can get it to work in your favour. But simply taking your open position in-play to avoid losses resulting from pre-off play is simply not a viable option.
3) Recognising patterns requires experience – Profiting from trading whether pre-off, in-play, or combination require recogising patters and their significant and their relationship to price/odds. This is best mastered by participating in as many markets and situation as possible without being wiped out. Acquiring the ability to recognise patterns and profiting from it requires considerable level of practice which in turn requires plenty of money (to withstand initial losses), discipline, mental agility and luck.
4) Avoid mistakes – Lot of times you see making small but steady profit across number of markets but see it wiped out by a bad luck or in most cases sear stupidity. The way to increase the win ratio is but avoiding some of the silliest howlers and I’m just as guilty as most:
a. Greening in-play
b. Staking incorrect amount
c. Staking at wrong time (one side of trade is pre-off & other in-play)
d. Letting open position go in-play
e. Greening up a winning position
f. Letting the whole trade go to loss in a hope
g. Others
5) Hope is not great – Hope is one of the great mechanisms whereby a simple human being can achieve great feats but when it comes to trading its one of the most destructive human traits coming in to play. Whether pre-off or in-play when your positions is in loss, you hope and pray that the market is wrong and that you’re right and that sense will prevail and you will be positive territory soon. Alas, more often than not, the market is correct and you’re wrong and many times it pays to attend to what the market is telling you than what you want to listen.
Although personal experience of 2010 has been slightly more positive and my personal efforts have not been as heroic as this poem might imply, this comes very close to summing up my 2010:
Out of the night that covers me,
Black as the Pit from pole to pole,
I thank whatever gods may be
For my unconquerable soul.
In the fell clutch of circumstance
I have not winced nor cried aloud.
Under the bludgeonings of chance
My head is bloody, but unbowed.
Beyond this place of wrath and tears
Looms but the Horror of the shade,
And yet the menace of the years
Finds, and shall find, me unafraid.
It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll.
I am the master of my fate:
I am the captain of my soul.
My resolutions for 2011 is going to the opposite of what I’ve discussed thus far but to put it more concretly, I’m not going to:
1) Not directly relating to trading but I’m not going to drink alcohol for at least three months
2) Never let go trade in-play by ensuring that its all greened/redded up 10-20 seconds before off
3) Whenever experience a loss, write down of the experience, reasons for the loss and what could’ve been done differently to mitigate the loss. I’ve found writing to be helpful even on therapeutic basis.
Best of luck for 2011
Some of things I’ve learnt this year are:
1) There’s no silver bullet – There is no single blog, article, idea that you would be able to rely on making money as if they go on trees. It does require a lot of dedication, learning, discipline, some money to sustain initial losses and lot of hard work. If you start using Bet Fair or Bet Angel thinking that there’s a secret spreadsheet formula or certain strategy that you will be able to use at will and generate money then you will be disappointed. There are no doubt certain approaches that are advatengeous than others but it is important to recognise them when they occur and using them optimally, by having right timing, attitude & discipline, that you profit from them.
2) Close your trade in time – It’s important that you don’t take your trade in-play out of desperation or last resort. Some people may have taking their trade in-play as part of their strategy and its fine as long as you understand the risk/return ratio and you can get it to work in your favour. But simply taking your open position in-play to avoid losses resulting from pre-off play is simply not a viable option.
3) Recognising patterns requires experience – Profiting from trading whether pre-off, in-play, or combination require recogising patters and their significant and their relationship to price/odds. This is best mastered by participating in as many markets and situation as possible without being wiped out. Acquiring the ability to recognise patterns and profiting from it requires considerable level of practice which in turn requires plenty of money (to withstand initial losses), discipline, mental agility and luck.
4) Avoid mistakes – Lot of times you see making small but steady profit across number of markets but see it wiped out by a bad luck or in most cases sear stupidity. The way to increase the win ratio is but avoiding some of the silliest howlers and I’m just as guilty as most:
a. Greening in-play
b. Staking incorrect amount
c. Staking at wrong time (one side of trade is pre-off & other in-play)
d. Letting open position go in-play
e. Greening up a winning position
f. Letting the whole trade go to loss in a hope
g. Others
5) Hope is not great – Hope is one of the great mechanisms whereby a simple human being can achieve great feats but when it comes to trading its one of the most destructive human traits coming in to play. Whether pre-off or in-play when your positions is in loss, you hope and pray that the market is wrong and that you’re right and that sense will prevail and you will be positive territory soon. Alas, more often than not, the market is correct and you’re wrong and many times it pays to attend to what the market is telling you than what you want to listen.
Although personal experience of 2010 has been slightly more positive and my personal efforts have not been as heroic as this poem might imply, this comes very close to summing up my 2010:
Out of the night that covers me,
Black as the Pit from pole to pole,
I thank whatever gods may be
For my unconquerable soul.
In the fell clutch of circumstance
I have not winced nor cried aloud.
Under the bludgeonings of chance
My head is bloody, but unbowed.
Beyond this place of wrath and tears
Looms but the Horror of the shade,
And yet the menace of the years
Finds, and shall find, me unafraid.
It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll.
I am the master of my fate:
I am the captain of my soul.
My resolutions for 2011 is going to the opposite of what I’ve discussed thus far but to put it more concretly, I’m not going to:
1) Not directly relating to trading but I’m not going to drink alcohol for at least three months
2) Never let go trade in-play by ensuring that its all greened/redded up 10-20 seconds before off
3) Whenever experience a loss, write down of the experience, reasons for the loss and what could’ve been done differently to mitigate the loss. I’ve found writing to be helpful even on therapeutic basis.
Best of luck for 2011
-
CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
That's an interesting point! Why would you do that?1) Not directly relating to trading but I’m not going to drink alcohol for at least three months
It's rare for me to go a whole week without drinking a bottle of wine, but I don't drink daily and can't see myself having a drinking problem.
So I wonder, how many of you guys out there drink on a regular basis and my guess is a lot?
I'm making a pledge to get fitter
I've put on 2 stone in weight since becoming a full-time trader. It's so easy when you work from home, drinking endless cups of coffee whilst dunking biscuits.
Healthy body, healthy mind - it might help my trading if I'm physically and mentally fresher
I've put on 2 stone in weight since becoming a full-time trader. It's so easy when you work from home, drinking endless cups of coffee whilst dunking biscuits.
Healthy body, healthy mind - it might help my trading if I'm physically and mentally fresher
CaerMyrddin wrote:That's an interesting point! Why would you do that?1) Not directly relating to trading but I’m not going to drink alcohol for at least three months
It's rare for me to go a whole week without drinking a bottle of wine, but I don't drink daily and can't see myself having a drinking problem.
So I wonder, how many of you guys out there drink on a regular basis and my guess is a lot?
While trading one afternoon I was half way through a bottle of vodka and listening to Jimi Hendrix full blast on the headphones. I decided to check my Betfair profit/loss and was down £771, so I switched off the computer and kept on drinking. Never touch the stuff now while at work.
Have to agree with with LeTiss. During the summer I was as fit as a flea. Now I’ve put on over two stone, my clothes don't fit, I feel awful and I fall asleep after 6.00pm whether I fight it or not. This is not good, I'll be back in shape by spring. But I do find a glass of red after trading comforts the soul and I shall continue with that.
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
I go to the gym 3 times per week and I find it very important to my trading performance, I would advise all to pick up yout sporty side (can I say that?)
Of course I don't trade and drink and I'm no hardcore drinker, but I'm a wine lover and from time to time I like to put a bottle down
Of course I don't trade and drink and I'm no hardcore drinker, but I'm a wine lover and from time to time I like to put a bottle down
Hi Photon
Interesting thoughts!
IMHO, simply observing the market without trading is a useful (and surprisingly interesting!) thing to do.
But it's difficult - in my experience, knowing when to sit on one's hands is one of the hardest but most important lessons for a trader.
Just one thing I'd add to your tips for successful trading. I would say that the key to profitable trading is to let your profits run and cut your losses. I'm slowly learning to apply that principle on Betfair, with mixed results so far. But it's already paying big dividends in my Forex trading. In the past month, I've made about 300 pips profit. Previously, I'd easily lose that much (and much more besides) in half that time!
You might be interested in listening to this recording about New Year Resolutions: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=3024
In a nutsell, what the speaker says is that most people fail to achieve their New Year Resolutions because they frame them in terms of 'shoulds', eg 'I should quit smoking, and maybe I'll get around to it one day', vs 'I MUST quit smoking, and I WILL! No excuses!'.
Sadly, most people aren't that honest with themselves, and their goals are nothing more than comfort blankets...
Have a great 2011!
Jeff
Interesting thoughts!
I agree, except for the bit about lots of money being required.Photon wrote:Acquiring the ability to recognise patterns and profiting from it requires considerable level of practice which in turn requires plenty of money (to withstand initial losses), discipline, mental agility and luck.
IMHO, simply observing the market without trading is a useful (and surprisingly interesting!) thing to do.
But it's difficult - in my experience, knowing when to sit on one's hands is one of the hardest but most important lessons for a trader.
Just one thing I'd add to your tips for successful trading. I would say that the key to profitable trading is to let your profits run and cut your losses. I'm slowly learning to apply that principle on Betfair, with mixed results so far. But it's already paying big dividends in my Forex trading. In the past month, I've made about 300 pips profit. Previously, I'd easily lose that much (and much more besides) in half that time!
Good luck!Photon wrote:My resolutions for 2011 is going to the opposite of what I’ve discussed thus far
You might be interested in listening to this recording about New Year Resolutions: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=3024
In a nutsell, what the speaker says is that most people fail to achieve their New Year Resolutions because they frame them in terms of 'shoulds', eg 'I should quit smoking, and maybe I'll get around to it one day', vs 'I MUST quit smoking, and I WILL! No excuses!'.
Sadly, most people aren't that honest with themselves, and their goals are nothing more than comfort blankets...
Have a great 2011!
Jeff
2010 was the year I made every mistake it was possible to make, trading wise 
Especially lost a considerable sum trying to master the hideously difficult pre-race trading on the UK horse racing markets, very disappointing.
If I'd just trusted my gut punters instincts instead of wasting my time chasing prices around on the trading, I'd have made a small fortune. So to sum up,trading nearly destroyed my natural punters instincts.
There were some big punting coups in 2010,including the 1.10 lays of 'Denman' and 'Zaynar' early in the year, some excellent tips from Jolly Green including a good 7-1 value coup with 'Imperial Commander' in the Gold Cup, and later I hit some targets with the Soccer World Cup, correctly predicting that Spain would win the cup and correctly getting the big value lays on England.
Whilst I intend to utilize what I've learned about trading, I will be trusting my gut punter instincts a lot more and not worrying so much what the market is doing. The traders principle of trying to stop losses by 'letting your profits run and cutting your losses',while sound, is not so easy to apply to sports markets on Betfair, due to the gaps in the market (caused by lower volumes) and the high volatility, indeed, trying to chase prices around and stop losses will actually cause you to lose money faster if you don't know exactly what you are doing.
Especially lost a considerable sum trying to master the hideously difficult pre-race trading on the UK horse racing markets, very disappointing. If I'd just trusted my gut punters instincts instead of wasting my time chasing prices around on the trading, I'd have made a small fortune. So to sum up,trading nearly destroyed my natural punters instincts.
There were some big punting coups in 2010,including the 1.10 lays of 'Denman' and 'Zaynar' early in the year, some excellent tips from Jolly Green including a good 7-1 value coup with 'Imperial Commander' in the Gold Cup, and later I hit some targets with the Soccer World Cup, correctly predicting that Spain would win the cup and correctly getting the big value lays on England.
Whilst I intend to utilize what I've learned about trading, I will be trusting my gut punter instincts a lot more and not worrying so much what the market is doing. The traders principle of trying to stop losses by 'letting your profits run and cutting your losses',while sound, is not so easy to apply to sports markets on Betfair, due to the gaps in the market (caused by lower volumes) and the high volatility, indeed, trying to chase prices around and stop losses will actually cause you to lose money faster if you don't know exactly what you are doing.
Hi Zenyatta
Happy New Year!
Jeff
Happy New Year!
I agree that it's not always possible to use the principle. Some markets are better suited for 1 tick scalping, and some markets are probably best left alone!Zenyatta wrote:The traders principle of trying to stop losses by 'letting your profits run and cutting your losses',while sound, is not so easy to apply to sports markets on Betfair, due to the gaps in the market (caused by lower volumes) and the high volatility.
'Cutting losses and letting profits run' doesn't have to be about responding to every slight move of the market. The ideal situation is to get out when the market genuinely moves against you, and to disregard (as far as possible) the noise. Vice versa when the market moves in your favour.Zenyatta wrote:indeed, trying to chase prices around and stop losses will actually cause you to lose money faster if you don't know exactly what you are doing.
Jeff
True, but there's a lot more noise in the Betfair horse racing markets than I first realized. Most newbies will find themselves reacting to pure noise more often than not or being ruthlessly manipulated by the pros. Manipulation is another big problem which is rife on Betfair horse racing markets, and trying to trade by applying the quoted principle immediately exposes you to it.Ferru123 wrote: 'Cutting losses and letting profits run' doesn't have to be about responding to every slight move of the market. The ideal situation is to get out when the market genuinely moves against you, and to disregard (as far as possible) the noise. Vice versa when the market moves in your favour.
Jeff
True, but I imagine that a skilled trader has a good idea which is which, and can apply the principle we are talking about successfully.
Also, I bet that, with practice, you can see which direction the spoofers want you to go in, and go in the opposite direction!
Jeff
Also, I bet that, with practice, you can see which direction the spoofers want you to go in, and go in the opposite direction!
Jeff
Zenyatta wrote: Manipulation is another big problem which is rife on Betfair horse racing markets, and trying to trade by applying the quoted principle [of letting your profits ride and cutting your losses] immediately exposes you to it.
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5hownewsday
- Posts: 13
- Joined: Sat Dec 25, 2010 4:20 am
iheard that the most popular resolution is loss weight but mine is work hard and earn a lot of money