Link between courses and prices?

[ArticalBadboy]

Hi everyone.

I was wondering what people's opinion is on whether there is a link between courses and prices of winning horses?

I am testing hypothetical theories by backtesing to see if they would have been profitibable over the last few years.
I am aware backtesting can lead to false expectations by retrofitting, but need to start looking for an edge somewhere.
Let's say I find a strategy that would have been profitable, and when I delve deeper I find that I can dramatically increase my strike rate/returns if I were to select/avoid specific courses.

I can see why certain types of horse favour certain lengths, going, stall positions, etc, but can't see why there would be a correlation between price and course.
Is this something I should omit from my thinking as given long enough it will revert to the mean?

Here is an example (and before anyone comments this was NOT a strategy I was considering!)
Backing all selections of sp 16-1 or more in all UK and Irish races since 2012 would have lost money, but doing so at Roscommon would have yielded a 48% return.

Many Thanks and Kind Regards

[weemac]

Many northern UK courses have huge-sized field competitive handicaps, which will inevitably lead to higher average prices. Brighton, by contrast, doesn't. You have to compare like with like for a truer picture.

[ANGELS15]

Many northern UK courses have huge-sized field competitive handicaps, which will inevitably lead to higher average prices. Brighton, by contrast, doesn't. You have to compare like with like for a truer picture.

Agreed. I've always thought that the allweather meeting markets seemed to be more accurate re the chances of gambled on horses. To be fair I've never delved into stats on it. However they're nowhere near as well attended as their turf counterparts, so perhaps things get noticed quicker by on-course professionals and the markets react or maybe even over-react quite quickly.

It's interesting about the Roscommon stats in the OP. I always think though that it's important to know why rather than looking at cold figues. It's like the case of Jockey A who we're told has a £50 ROI at course B over the last 3 seasons. Jockey A usually has about 1/2 dozen annual rides at course B mostly moderate horses with the odd 2nd favourite. One day he was riding a 100/1 outsider in a 6 runner race the odds on favourite and 2nd favourite were a mile clear, one jumped across the other and both came down presenting the 100/1 outsider with the race the others having been pulled up.