Australian Horse Racing

[rik]

current price -1 *0.9, noone serious on 10% anyway

Don't think that's correct. For a price of 4.0 that would mean you have to back at (4.0 - 1) * 0.9 = 2.7 to cover commission

i meant you just apply comission on the winnings not on the stake otherwise evens shot would pay out 1.8 on 10% commission.
correct way would be (current price-1)*0.9+1

[eightbo]

oh yeah you're right, thanks

[rik]

could be fixed race, never know...

at rosehill ???

maybe unlikely still someone could definitely have a good reason to put 40k on a horse, doesnt have to be a degenerate
i believe its likely to be value to lay but someone actually runs a bot like that can confirm?

[mcgoo]

The money on Super Seth on the Grp3 at Caulfield appears to have been the smart money

[eightbo]

best result of the session at the Caulfield grp3 there

[eightbo]

could be fixed race, never know...

at rosehill ???

maybe unlikely still someone could definitely have a good reason to put 40k on a horse, doesnt have to be a degenerate
i believe its likely to be value to lay but maybe someone actually runs a bot like that and its profitable...

in theory it's possible but yeah gotta be unlikely and you can factor that risk into the price you take if you want anyway.

would you be happy to offer people 99p payout on coin flips all day for a £1 stake? how about 95p payout? 20p payout?
You can define how low you want to take but I suspect the big boys have pushed it as close as they can and naturally it sweeps up everything below too.

i'm not a stats nerd (cus im too lazy) but i'd guess the current price is around accurate and that i'd expect that more people would be involved if it's some sort of gamble or fix and thus the betting activity would produce different patterns (everyone in the know would be undercutting eachother). Saw some graphs for fixed footie draws somewhere online and it's pretty distinct.

edit: oh & if it was just 1 party betting then it would be most efficient for them to drip the orders in over a longer period of time rather than just the last 60s

[mcgoo]

best result of the session at the Caulfield grp3 there

Nice one. I ended up in profit overall for a change so calling it a day and going to gym ..All the best for the rest of the session

[TipTopTrader]

If all the big computer teams find the same horse it gets truck loaded.

[eightbo]

Nice 1 mcgoo. I trust you'll be working on your edge analysing what you did well this session when you get back

[rik]

sure id flip that coin all day long if i had to pay out less

what do you mean by distinct graph on fixed football draws, no huge bets hitting the market but just an even steam on the draw?

[TipTopTrader]

I hope Vega Magic race 6 no 4 Caulfield is value, his old form hes a 1.40 1.50 . didn't come up last prep. Had a super impressive jump out a few weeks ago, and is first up. Hard to say what price he will start.

[rik]

what would you price him at? should be a big back then at 2.1?

[eightbo]

what do you mean by distinct graph on fixed football draws, no huge bets hitting the market but just an even steam on the draw?

Spikey but a super aggressive steam iirc.
Imagine what you'd be feeling if you believed you knew what the outcome would be — proper case of FOMO thinking the price will go without you.

There's a regulatory body who look into match fixing based on irregular betting activity (they look at betfair data among other things). There's an interview with a geezer who works there on youtube, will link it later if I can find it.

[TipTopTrader]

I took 2.30 with the bookies and rated him around the 1.90 1.85, like I said he might not be the same horse as in the past, thats the gamble really.

[TipTopTrader]

Wow couldn't have ran any worse.