Balancing Convictions

[JustLukeYou]

Does anyone else have experience with this?

I started backing over 2.5 goals but as I watched the match I decided to trade it in for a slight loss. But watching the match I thought the home team would win. I could baked them and 0-0 as insurance but I didn't. Low and behold the home team did score and won 2-0.

I did make a profit by backing the correct scores but traded out once I was making a small profit. I could of gone to make 60% instead of 14%.

Sometimes I backed my convictions but other times I didn't but still managed to make a profit.

[jimibt]

Does anyone else have experience with this?

I started backing over 2.5 goals but as I watched the match I decided to trade it in for a slight loss. But watching the match I thought the home team would win. I could baked them and 0-0 as insurance but I didn't. Low and behold the home team did score and won 2-0.

I did make a profit by backing the correct scores but traded out once I was making a small profit. I could of gone to make 60% instead of 14%.

Sometimes I backed my convictions but other times I didn't but still managed to make a profit.

Here's the conundrum. Until you are a game reader/savant, this kind of misery will always haunt you. On the bright side, you made a profit -that's good. On the dark side, you weren't content with that. This is your bigger question (and ultimate demon). I'm afraid that is down to *let's move on* psycology, rather than trading tactics. Maybe you need to have xx cases per day like the above, whereby you accept the cumulative affect of the profit(s), rather than rueing missed opportunity that may or may not have existed.

I seem like a broken record i know, but you need to target volume so that you can enjoy sustainable (lowish) returns which combine to produce an overall wide mean. no point having 1 game per day that either wins 150% profit or loses the lot - beter (for now) to have a basket of games that return a modest overall profit that allows you to study YOURSELF.

[JustLukeYou]

Does anyone else have experience with this?

I started backing over 2.5 goals but as I watched the match I decided to trade it in for a slight loss. But watching the match I thought the home team would win. I could baked them and 0-0 as insurance but I didn't. Low and behold the home team did score and won 2-0.

I did make a profit by backing the correct scores but traded out once I was making a small profit. I could of gone to make 60% instead of 14%.

Sometimes I backed my convictions but other times I didn't but still managed to make a profit.

Here's the conundrum. Until you are a game reader/savant, this kind of misery will always haunt you. On the bright side, you made a profit -that's good. On the dark side, you weren't content with that. This is your bigger question (and ultimate demon). I'm afraid that is down to *let's move on* psycology, rather than trading tactics. Maybe you need to have xx cases per day like the above, whereby you accept the cumulative affect of the profit(s), rather than rueing missed opportunity that may or may not have existed.

I seem like a broken record i know, but you need to target volume so that you can enjoy sustainable (lowish) returns which combine to produce an overall wide mean. no point having 1 game per day that either wins 150% profit or loses the lot - beter (for now) to have a basket of games that return a modest overall profit that allows you to study YOURSELF.

Many thanks. I am planning to bet on as many games that I can watch as I can. But I when I get that gut instinct that turns out to be right I want to make as much profit as possible or I am leaving money on the table. Watching the match leave does appear to help massively.

[CallumPerry]

Keep records of your trades. How often did you leave too early for <20%, how close did you get to the max (in this case 60%), how many times would you have gone bust? Of course you want to sweep up as much money as you can each time you win but for now your main concern should be winning more often than losing regularly over many markets not just a couple.

Early days means a gargantuan amount of ideas are probably circulating around inside your head. At this point create some longterm plans you'd like to work towards and work out how you will get there and what kind of records you will need to keep. How you will test yourself, what your plans are and what the main strategies you are going to use will be. What is the reason behind these strategies, will they work longterm? Is it just a hunch. I'm working on a spreadsheet right now after a good many hours of work today because these thoughts never disappear. You need to find this overwhelming fascination with details fun foremost.

[ShaunWhite]

It might be worth you taking a moment to think about where prices will go if something happens, or if it doesn't happen. And then while watching the match, try to work out the likelihood of that thing happening. Eg It's no use hoping that something will happen in the next 10 mins that will make you +15 ticks vs losing -1 tick, if that thing only happens 5% of the time.

As others have said record keeping is very useful, that way you can measure the accuracy of your convictions against what actually happened. 10, 20 matches might give you the 'feeling' that you're out-thinking the market, but hard stats will prove if that's actually true.

[JustLukeYou]

Many thanks. I am keeping a spreadsheet with notes next to them.

Do you watch all the matches, currently I am only trading on matches I am watching live.