Loss to Profit and How?

[Derek27]

I'm neither a trader or a regular contributor to these forums but I can't help seeing similarities between the Luke "it was as if I could predict the future" threads and those of Luca "the little champion trader".

Maybe BF could set up a market along the lines of Are Luca and Luke the same person?

Well spotted, I actually mentioned that to Shaun in a PM. Luca at least spent more time on a topic before moving on, and didn't completely ignore your comments.

[JustLukeYou]

I'm neither a trader or a regular contributor to these forums but I can't help seeing similarities between the Luke "it was as if I could predict the future" threads and those of Luca "the little champion trader".

Maybe BF could set up a market along the lines of Are Luca and Luke the same person?

Well spotted, I actually mentioned that to Shaun in a PM. Luca at least spent more time on a topic before moving on, and didn't completely ignore your comments.

Derek, you have piled in with a number of negative and unhelpful comments. Can you please stop.

There are people on this forum who are contributing positively.

[Derek27]

There are people on this forum who are contributing positively.

Would you be so kind as to name them?

You said earlier there was just one useful piece of information on this forum directing you to Paulo Rebelo's site?

[JustLukeYou]

There are people on this forum who are contributing positively.

Would you be so kind as to name them?

You said earlier there was just one useful piece of information on this forum directing you to Paulo Rebelo's site?

Based on the theme of this thread...Did you struggle with trading to begin with and if so how did you turn it around and start making a profit?

[Kai]

Instead of having this forum there should be a message that says "Watch Paulo Rebelo" because that is basically the only use you get from this forum.

No one discusses anything else, whether they focus on specific leagues or will trade any match anywhere in the world, for example.

This forum has helped me to find a YouTuber. Other than that very little value.

That's a rotten thing to say, after so many people tried to help you because they've been there themselves. You're just saying this out of spite and pettiness, because you're slowly realizing that your illusion of a self-proclaimed football trading savant may not actually be real.

Btw, asking so many questions, especially basic ones, are nothing but a sign of a person who is simply too lazy to find the answers on their own. Traders naturally get annoyed with people like that because we've all been to hell and back in order to become profitable, there is no easy route.

The ironic thing is, you're absolutely right that most of the advice from people is completely useless for you at this stage, because 90% of it is simply going over your head. If you didn't misrepresent yourself and if people knew they were replying to a complete newbie then I guarantee you their posts and advice would be very different. If you go over your threads at a later date when/if you learn more about trading then you would realize that and you would probably feel like a complete tool.

[ShaunWhite]

I don't wish to be rude but answers like this "You use your judgement?" offer no value.

I was so confident they would score and 6.2 seemed incredibly high. I would put it more at 2.

This is an example of using judgement.

I think kai is right, the fantastic advice you have been given isn't being understood because it is too advanced for you. Once you have understood the maths behind basic laying and backing, you might be in a position to start to learn trading.

[ShaunWhite]

Luke, it's a common understanding that 95% of new traders fail to show a long term profit.

I've tried to represent this in a chart for you. Maybe a picture will mean more than words.

I've done it so you can see how hard you have to work, and how many years you need to dedicate to this, to be in that very very small group of people. Are you going to work harder than 95% of new traders? Do you have what it takes to get in that 2 or 3% who make good money.

[JustLukeYou]

Luke, it's a common understanding that 95% of new traders fail to show a long term profit.

I've tried to represent this in a chart for you. Maybe a picture will mean more than words.

I've done it so you can see how hard you have to work, and how many years you need to dedicate to this, to be in that very very small group of people. Are you going to work harder than 95% of new traders? Do you have what it takes to get in that 2 or 3% who make good money.

Hi Shaun,

I was hoping that people would share their personal experiences. For example, someone may have struggled for six months but then they focussed on one specific league such as German 2nd Division and then started to make a profit. That is the aim of this thread.

[Derek27]

There are people on this forum who are contributing positively.

Would you be so kind as to name them?

You said earlier there was just one useful piece of information on this forum directing you to Paulo Rebelo's site?

Based on the theme of this thread...Did you struggle with trading to begin with and if so how did you turn it around and start making a profit?

I turned it around by getting a lot of experience trading markets which improved my judgement, what more can I say?

It's like everything in life, the more you practice the better you become, there is no silver bullet.

[JustLukeYou]

Would you be so kind as to name them?

You said earlier there was just one useful piece of information on this forum directing you to Paulo Rebelo's site?

Based on the theme of this thread...Did you struggle with trading to begin with and if so how did you turn it around and start making a profit?

I turned it around by getting a lot of experience trading markets which improved my judgement, what more can I say?

It's like everything in life, the more you practice the better you become, there is no silver bullet.

Thanks Derek,

I have seen a few people say that however that contradicts what I am getting from the YouTube videos I watch. For example Paulo Rebelo says that you should focus on specific teams. For example, if the Real Madrid wants there team to always attack regardless of the score you need to know this because it may finish 5-2 where as the Chelsea manager wants the team to park the bus and win 2-0. They also say you should do research.


One source of information says one thing yet another source contradicts, that is what is confusing me.

There is a also a BetAngel video discussing using xG which I am trying to look more into.

[ShaunWhite]

Luke, it's a common understanding that 95% of new traders fail to show a long term profit.

I've tried to represent this in a chart for you. Maybe a picture will mean more than words.

I've done it so you can see how hard you have to work, and how many years you need to dedicate to this, to be in that very very small group of people. Are you going to work harder than 95% of new traders? Do you have what it takes to get in that 2 or 3% who make good money.

Hi Shaun,

I was hoping that people would share their personal experiences. For example, someone may have struggled for six months but then they focussed on one specific league such as German 2nd Division and then started to make a profit. That is the aim of this thread.

It's a fair question. But you had many many replies that said "If so how please?"
The problem was that none of them were the easy answer you hoped for and too difficult for you to understand, at the time.

Focussing on one league is one way to do it. But as you learn more you will find out that there are many ways to trade...as I think I explained to you once. ie pure stats people and people who watch TV.

I know successful traders who trade one match at a time and others who trade 100s of matches at the same time. Keep an open mind and the best solution is the one that works for you. If other people have described what works best for them, then don't give them a hard time for trying to explain it. You are a very new beginner and people here have a combined experience of 100s of years, try and be humble enough to appreciate that and your chances of success will multiply.

[JustLukeYou]

Luke, it's a common understanding that 95% of new traders fail to show a long term profit.

I've tried to represent this in a chart for you. Maybe a picture will mean more than words.

I've done it so you can see how hard you have to work, and how many years you need to dedicate to this, to be in that very very small group of people. Are you going to work harder than 95% of new traders? Do you have what it takes to get in that 2 or 3% who make good money.

Hi Shaun,

I was hoping that people would share their personal experiences. For example, someone may have struggled for six months but then they focussed on one specific league such as German 2nd Division and then started to make a profit. That is the aim of this thread.

It's a fair question. But you had many many replies that said "If so how please?"
The problem was that none of them were the easy answer you hoped for and too difficult for you to understand, at the time.

Focussing on one league is one way to do it. But as you learn more you will find out that there are many ways to trade...as I think I explained to you once. ie pure stats people and people who watch TV.

I know successful traders who trade one match at a time and others who trade 100s of matches at the same time. Keep an open mind and the best solution is the one that works for you. If other people have described what works best for them, then don't give them a hard time for trying to explain it. You are a very new beginner and people here have a combined experience of 100s of years, try and be humble enough to appreciate that and your chances of success will multiply.

Do you think it's useful for me to put together a booklet of different strategies. For example, I am planning to back England to win 3-1 but I watched one of Paulo Rebelo's videos and he said don't think what will happen. He said to look for value. So the current odds for 3-1 are 13 which sounds reasonable. If they were 20 I would be all over them like a rash but currently I can't see any value. Maybe things will change when I watch the game live.

[JustLukeYou]

Actually I might go for under 3.5 goals and put the profit on 1-3 but that seems to more of a role of gambling instead of trading.

[CallumPerry]

Hi Shaun,

I was hoping that people would share their personal experiences. For example, someone may have struggled for six months but then they focussed on one specific league such as German 2nd Division and then started to make a profit. That is the aim of this thread.

It's a fair question. But you had many many replies that said "If so how please?"
The problem was that none of them were the easy answer you hoped for and too difficult for you to understand, at the time.

Focussing on one league is one way to do it. But as you learn more you will find out that there are many ways to trade...as I think I explained to you once. ie pure stats people and people who watch TV.

I know successful traders who trade one match at a time and others who trade 100s of matches at the same time. Keep an open mind and the best solution is the one that works for you. If other people have described what works best for them, then don't give them a hard time for trying to explain it. You are a very new beginner and people here have a combined experience of 100s of years, try and be humble enough to appreciate that and your chances of success will multiply.

Do you think it's useful for me to put together a booklet of different strategies. For example, I am planning to back England to win 3-1 but I watched one of Paulo Rebelo's videos and he said don't think what will happen. He said to look for value. So the current odds for 3-1 are 13 which sounds reasonable. If they were 20 I would be all over them like a rash but currently I can't see any value. Maybe things will change when I watch the game live.

I absolutely think it's worth putting together a booklet/diary of notes. Your first line is showing critical analysis, Paulo said one thing and even though you respect this content creator you have a differing opinion, GOOD! You can't agree with everything he says. Why 3-1? Why do odds of 13 for the score 3-1 look reasonable, to what extent? Why do you think they should be at 20? What about if they moved to about 18? Would 20 still be the solid figure you believe in, why?

If you want a detailed discussion, answer those questions. Have you Googled modelling sports markets like I suggested? If not, how are you coming up with these numbers? Bit hurtful reading you've received barely any good advice, this has taken over a minute out of my life. I appreciate if anybody gives me more than 5 seconds of their time and MANY users on here have helped me astronomically.

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

I think England will win 3-1. Its difficult because I can't do any valuable research. I have been focusing Spanish Div. 2 and the research is helping a lot. I also won last night on a Brazilian match by look at the form. I have seen a few people say that they avoid international matches.

In terms of 13 for 3-1 to England I can't see any value you in it based on how Paulo says that you should evaluate odds. If it is 2-0 to England late into the game I think those odds will hold and wont come down but if also back less than 3 goals that gives me protection.

I haven't Googled those points as I have been focusing on trading tbh. I had a Caan Barry's book delivered today