Using Form, Trends, Other Results And League Standing Position

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

Let's say for example on Saturday there are 5 games at 3PM. In each game the home team wins. You are planning to trade the evening 5:30 game but by looking at the 5 home wins you consider it to be highly improbable that all 6 games will finish with the home team winning so you decide to lay the home team.

Also, I watched a BetAngel video and he said that you can't use form because it's a bit like tossing a coin. They are not connected and seperate events. But last night I saw a Brazilian team were 4th in the league but their recent form was poor and they were due a win. You could say Man Utd are due a win soon. There is only so many games any strong team will go without winning or it will be highly improbable. For example, it is highly unlikely with Liverpools current form that they would lose two games in a row. So lets say they lose to Bournemouth and then play Barcelona you lay Liverpool because their recent is just to good not to.

So does anyone look at form and other results of matches?

Take Scotland rugby for example. Scotland go through patches were all their sports results are terrible. They lost at football 4-0 to Russia and from that I was quite sure they would lose to Japan at rugby even though they were favorites.

You might have a team who's results get worse as the season progresses because the manager is not rotating the squad. Or perhaps Crystal Palace always perform well against other London clubs. Are there real trends like this that can be capitalised on and if so how do you find them?

[CallumPerry]

Google Gamblers Fallacy

[JustLukeYou]

Google Gamblers Fallacy

I understand what you mean but that is a very broad term. Let's take for example Liverpool. If Liverpool lose a match they appear to have leaders who give carry the team forwards. This appeared to be a lot of the success of Alex Ferguson. He had leaders on the pitch who could influence matches and results.

Those sorts of influences aren't present in many other forms of gambling.


Form must influence football odds. The recent form of Man Utd or Harry Kane will influence the odds of a match.

[ruthlessimon]

I watched a BetAngel video and he said that you can't use form because it's a bit like tossing a coin. They are not connected and seperate events.

Have you got a link to the vid? I don't trade football, but I'm slightly surprised with that stance

[CallumPerry]

Google Gamblers Fallacy

I understand what you mean but that is a very broad term. Let's take for example Liverpool. If Liverpool lose a match they appear to have leaders who give carry the team forwards. This appeared to be a lot of the success of Alex Ferguson. He had leaders on the pitch who could influence matches and results.

Those sorts of influences aren't present in many other forms of gambling.


Form must influence football odds. The recent form of Man Utd or Harry Kane will influence the odds of a match.

Unrelated past results don't influence future results so having 5 teams win at home makes absolutely no difference to the match you are analysing. The effects of a few dozen men kicking a bag of wind hundreds of miles away from one another makes 0 difference to a game kicking off around 30 minutes after those games have ended.

In terms of looking at a team's run of results, that can tell you a bit about intensity. We are psychological creatures, the men/women/bots in the markets and the men/women kicking the bag of wind. Individually they have good form and bad form, as team you can see that too. Some teams are in other competitions so rest key players sometimes. This kind of decision making comes down to you as a trader, only you can decide how important this information is and what you should do with it.

[JustLukeYou]

Google Gamblers Fallacy

I understand what you mean but that is a very broad term. Let's take for example Liverpool. If Liverpool lose a match they appear to have leaders who give carry the team forwards. This appeared to be a lot of the success of Alex Ferguson. He had leaders on the pitch who could influence matches and results.

Those sorts of influences aren't present in many other forms of gambling.


Form must influence football odds. The recent form of Man Utd or Harry Kane will influence the odds of a match.

Unrelated past results don't influence future results so having 5 teams win at home makes absolutely no difference to the match you are analysing. The effects of a few dozen men kicking a bag of wind hundreds of miles away from one another makes 0 difference to a game kicking off around 30 minutes after those games have ended.

In terms of looking at a team's run of results, that can tell you a bit about intensity. We are psychological creatures, the men/women/bots in the markets and the men/women kicking the bag of wind. Individually they have good form and bad form, as team you can see that too. Some teams are in other competitions so rest key players sometimes. This kind of decision making comes down to you as a trader, only you can decide how important this information is and what you should do with it.

Yes we are psychological creatures. If the home team kicking off at 5:30 know that the 5 teams kicking off at 3PM all win they may see this as pressure.

With Leeds last season they started to pick up a lot of injuries because the manager was overtraining the players and yet he is still the manager. I think there is a strong chance that will happen again this season and their form towards the end of the season will start to dip.

You can also take teams like Newcastle, Sunderland and AC Milan at the moment who appear to be cursed. Whatever they do it never seems to work out.

You might also find a tipster who actually more wrong than what is right so you lay his tips instead of backing them and make a profit.

[ruthlessimon]

I watched a BetAngel video and he said that you can't use form because it's a bit like tossing a coin. They are not connected and seperate events.

Have you got a link to the vid? I don't trade football, but I'm slightly surprised with that stance

Interesting article: http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/0 ... -the-mean/

[ShaunWhite]

Great link Simon. You always know where all the hardcore trading porn is.