Is the market normally accurate when you get suspiciously low odds of a draw?
Or is there value to be had by either backing or laying?
Jeff
Dubious draw odds
It happens, if the market assumes extraordinarily low probabilities for either of the teams scoring (i.e., low attack capabilities, high defense capabilities for both teams). In the extreme, if the market would know for sure that none of the teams will score a goal, the Quotes would be Q1=1000, Q2 = 1000, QX=1 (since we know for sure that the game ends 0-0). If the market allows some positive but low probability for a team to score, you can get all kinds of low QX that still are consistent. So, in general a very low QX is not per se erroneous, but if you have other estimates of the individual strengths than the market, you might of course be able to spot an opportunity there (e.g., that the market in general underestimates low probabilities for draws and therefore you should back them) ...
Many greetings, Fidibus
Many greetings, Fidibus
I'd rather look at the amount of money matched and not the odds. This is what (and how many) willing sellers and willing buyers agreed upon. So from this point of view market is accurate. Value is a subjective term. You need lots of info to appreciate it. As this is a rare event is sounds to me more like bingo.
Hi,
when you asses an event and try to take as many factors affecting it as possible, whether by a "scientific" approach or gut feeling, the likelihood is that you will come to the same conclusion as the rest of the people using this approach.
As F points out, the opportunities at such events, lie in using an assessment which is "at odds" with "the crowd". It's a contrarian view which Peter frequently refers to and one which I've used to reasonable effect in punting on the horses and particularly football. I'm in the process of trying to modify the approach for trading football and will investigate it in more depth for horse racing, come the start of the turf flat season,
cheers, P
cheers, P
when you asses an event and try to take as many factors affecting it as possible, whether by a "scientific" approach or gut feeling, the likelihood is that you will come to the same conclusion as the rest of the people using this approach.
As F points out, the opportunities at such events, lie in using an assessment which is "at odds" with "the crowd". It's a contrarian view which Peter frequently refers to and one which I've used to reasonable effect in punting on the horses and particularly football. I'm in the process of trying to modify the approach for trading football and will investigate it in more depth for horse racing, come the start of the turf flat season,
cheers, P
cheers, P
Thanks guys
If the draw odds are ridiculously low, I just wonder whether the markets think 'Insider money must be at play', causing the price to become artificially low.
Alternatively, I suppose it's possible that the draw odds are low because the match has been fixed or both teams have indicated they have no intention of making an effort, in which case a back bet would be a better option!
Jeff
If the draw odds are ridiculously low, I just wonder whether the markets think 'Insider money must be at play', causing the price to become artificially low.
Alternatively, I suppose it's possible that the draw odds are low because the match has been fixed or both teams have indicated they have no intention of making an effort, in which case a back bet would be a better option!
Jeff