I think that is the term the American's use for constructing an odds line. Then you compare your view of the race with the prices on offer and make your selection based on value.
I have been doing this for a little while now and I am wondering whether I could make more consistent profits trading my selections rather than simply backing them?
The question I have though is how would other betangel traders trade in these circumstances? Would you simply open up one trade per value horse as I am doing now and close out just prior to race start? OR would you look for a few ticks and try and re-cycle your money if the horse returned to a value position?
Handicapping
Hi Meadert
Personally, I wouldn't bother with handicapping, as all the information that's known about a horse is reflected in its Betfair price.
See, for example, the chart on this page, which illustrates the market's efficiency: http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets
Jeff
Personally, I wouldn't bother with handicapping, as all the information that's known about a horse is reflected in its Betfair price.
See, for example, the chart on this page, which illustrates the market's efficiency: http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets
Jeff
meadert wrote:I think that is the term the American's use for constructing an odds line. Then you compare your view of the race with the prices on offer and make your selection based on value.
I have been doing this for a little while now and I am wondering whether I could make more consistent profits trading my selections rather than simply backing them?
Jeff
I do agree with your point, but the way I have been working is to construct my line at 9 o'clock in the morning and take early prices on the afternoon's events - on the assumption that at that time the market is not efficient.
I am learning that I am not very good at making quick decisions so I need a trading style where I can take a longer view.
I do agree with your point, but the way I have been working is to construct my line at 9 o'clock in the morning and take early prices on the afternoon's events - on the assumption that at that time the market is not efficient.
I am learning that I am not very good at making quick decisions so I need a trading style where I can take a longer view.
I don't want to get into a long pedantic discussion about how efficient the markets are, generally they are efficient yes, but that's not the case with every runner in every race. The fact that if there is a delay of 2 or 3 minutes the odds may have changed significantly from the official off time (and not always because of a change in the horses chances) demonstrates this