Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?

[Kai]

Does anyone use xG for specific matches to support their trades. River Plate played last night and if you have a look at their away form they almost always have 2 or more goals in the first half which is very high.

Not many can explain this better than Euler/Peter in the clips below, most traders share his opinion on the subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xog-QZvFWcA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVifz-J4Lu4&t
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDCAUZEA-AU

In short the issue with (past) xG stats and stats in general is they tell you what has happened in games that have already finished and that you won't be trading anymore, they don't really tell you what's likely to happen in the next match. Can try using a bit of live xG like some apps have to support your opinions and trades but beware of confirmation bias (google the term) : https://twitter.com/InfogolApp/status/1 ... 90981?s=20

You can try calculating xG with that guide link you posted but you won't get far, in short you basically need to chart your own xG graph in your head as you watch the match and form prices on your own, that is a skill and not a simple formula that anyone can follow. For that reason alone you don't see a lot of top traders out there and you never will. It's a very difficult skill to learn so nearly everyone gives up on it and looks elsewhere, or they give up altogether, that's why I'm linking these.

Not only am trading out early but also not backing odds when I can see real value in them.

It's probably easier to find value by laying (below 2.0) instead of backing, you need a liquid exchange for that. Not many traders bother with correct scores as it's a small and an annoying market where you're looking for just the right amount of goals, anything less and over that amount will not do you much good, that is why people like overs/unders, plus the timing of those goals on CS matters a bit more than on o/u.

[JustLukeYou]

Thanks, I have watched those videos however there are many videos I need to rewatch.

I have heard in a few places that pro traders make the trades as they see them. It is incredibly frustrating to trade out early or not take some of the trades as it makes a huge impact on the profit margin. There are times where I could have got 400% but I am looking more information that supports my plans. Like the game in Argentina, if there were more stats that support 2 or more goals in the first half there would be more reason for me to back it.


When I look at Under/Over I rarely see any value that is why I avoid them but I know they are the most popular markets.

[Kai]

Thanks, I have watched those videos however there are many videos I need to rewatch.

Can't realistically expect to absorb much from such a video at the start, so it's a good idea to rewatch it at a later date once you gain a few level-ups in terms of knowledge and experience. It will all be far less abstract and will make a lot more sense then, and can easily lead to those a-ha moments that are basically the benchmarks of genuine progress.

It is incredibly frustrating to trade out early or not take some of the trades as it makes a huge impact on the profit margin. There are times where I could have got 400% but I am looking more information that supports my plans.

You are finding it incredibly frustrating because like I said it's an annoying market to trade, not only do you need a goal, you also need the right type of goal, and at the right time too, so have fun figuring out when to exit Profit margin does not matter if you making profit in the first place. Trading CS imho is an ego issue for people, they think they can predict exact results on a regular basis, you should do this only for fun on Soccer Saturday Super 6 and not for an actual living.

When I look at Under/Over I rarely see any value that is why I avoid them but I know they are the most popular markets.

Try looking at games with no goals after half time and see if you can anticipate goals by laying cheaper prices, it may be a good exercise for you. Look for under 1.5 and under 2.5 markets that have severely dropped in price and start drip laying. Once you get a goal, depending on when it comes, you can decide what to do with the trade, all options are open.

[JustLukeYou]

You are definitely right about CS. But I can't believe it, Augsberg went 1-0 up against Bayern Munich. Munich score but I was convinced it would end in a a draw so I backed 2-2 and 3-3 but I traded out when Munich scored and Augsburg looked to be tired but it has just finished 2-2.


If it was £10 staked in total I could have finished with £67.50 plus whatever I traded out the £5 on 3-3 for. Probably turn £10 into £75.


In terms of second half trading does any pre-match research help. I find it helps to look at the score at half time of previous games and around 60% of goals are scored in the second half.

[Derek27]

It is incredibly frustrating to trade out early or not take some of the trades as it makes a huge impact on the profit margin. There are times where I could have got 400% but I am looking more information that supports my plans. Like the game in Argentina, if there were more stats that support 2 or more goals in the first half there would be more reason for me to back it.

I've already told you how to deal with this problem. Either find a bookie that accepts bets on football after the match has been completed, or just do what all other traders do and accept that you're taking a gamble and will never get the maximum possible out of a market.

No trader is ever likely to be successful until they've shaken off this common cognitive bias.

[JustLukeYou]

It is incredibly frustrating to trade out early or not take some of the trades as it makes a huge impact on the profit margin. There are times where I could have got 400% but I am looking more information that supports my plans. Like the game in Argentina, if there were more stats that support 2 or more goals in the first half there would be more reason for me to back it.

I've already told you how to deal with this problem. Either find a bookie that accepts bets on football after the match has been completed, or just do what all other traders do and accept that you're taking a gamble and will never get the maximum possible out of a market.

No trader is ever likely to be successful until they've shaken off this common cognitive bias.

So what should I be doing instead. Not taking these trades in the first place?

[ShaunWhite]

For any new person reading this: Trading is all about exploiting market volatility and thankfully in football, prices decay in a predictable way. The specific entry and exit price therefore aren't as important as the likely decay rate (ie the difference between entry & exit price over time vs goal expectation). This ties in to what I explained in a very detailed step by step explanation to Luke when I said find answer A and answer B etc in a previous posting. He is still thinking like a backer rather than a trader as he didn't understand that reply, and having not understood it, didn't try to understand it before rushing off to look for another answer which he might understand. There's no escaping the fundamentals. To reiterate, trading is about price changes over time, not prices per se. You can watch a 100 videos and read 100 books but unless you grasp the basic difference between trading and any other gambling strategy it will be a waste of time.

[Kai]

That's your ego talking again and not you You don't need to actually predict anything as a trader, you just need to worry if the price is right or wrong.

What you don't even realize that by backing multiple scores you are practically trading the unders/overs anyway, so why needlessly complicate things. I'll tell you why, because it feels good for your ego to get the score right And because you've watched far too many CS themed videos from questionable traders. Although I don't actually believe you and I think you're just abusing the power of hindsight and forgetting the scores you've missed, your results and profit margins are just not there to support this.

Forget research, do zero research and try trading only based on what you see.

[JustLukeYou]

For any new person reading this: Trading is all about exploiting market volatility and thankfully in football, prices decay in a predictable way. The specific entry and exit price therefore aren't as important as the likely decay rate (ie the difference between entry & exit price over time vs goal expectation). This ties in to what I explained in a very detailed step by step explanation to Luke when I said find answer A and answer B etc in a previous posting. He is still thinking like a backer rather than a trader as he didn't understand that reply, and having not understood it, didn't try to understand it before rushing off to look for another answer which he might understand. There's no escaping the fundamentals. To reiterate, trading is about price changes over time, not prices per se. You can watch a 100 videos and read 100 books but unless you grasp the basic difference between trading and any other gambling strategy it will be a waste of time.

Can you give an example please. Examples are much easier to follow. I have heard in a number of places that you watch the game live and identify when a goal will OR won't be scored. That is what I am trying to do.

[JustLukeYou]

That's your ego talking again and not you You don't need to actually predict anything as a trader, you just need to worry if the price is right or wrong.

What you don't even realize that by backing multiple scores you are practically trading the unders/overs anyway, so why needlessly complicate things. I'll tell you why, because it feels good for your ego to get the score right And because you've watched far too many CS themed videos from questionable traders. Although I don't actually believe you and I think you're just abusing the power of hindsight and forgetting the scores you've missed, your results and profit margins are just not there to support this.

Forget research, do zero research and try trading only based on what you see.

I am starting to understand what you are saying. What I am being drawn to are the high margins. Take the example of 2-1. It is typically 11 but over 2.5 is typically 2.

I can email an image where I have backed 2-2 and 3-3 of Augsburg v Bayern if you want.

[jimibt]

It is incredibly frustrating to trade out early or not take some of the trades as it makes a huge impact on the profit margin. There are times where I could have got 400% but I am looking more information that supports my plans. Like the game in Argentina, if there were more stats that support 2 or more goals in the first half there would be more reason for me to back it.

I've already told you how to deal with this problem. Either find a bookie that accepts bets on football after the match has been completed, or just do what all other traders do and accept that you're taking a gamble and will never get the maximum possible out of a market.

No trader is ever likely to be successful until they've shaken off this common cognitive bias.

So what should I be doing instead. Not taking these trades in the first place?

ignore CS markets. look at the OU markets. Kai just mentioned this (I mentioned it over 2 weeks ago also). You can also selectively target the Match Odds, but this options requires a deep reading of the game assuming you manage to get good value to begin with.

I think personally, you are going about this completely ar$e about elbow. You should be learning the basics (there are many videos and threads on here that discuss OU markets and football trading in general). Rather than machine gunning the forum everytime you NEARLY get a good value trade. just take a LOT more time and paper trade ideas, make observations and above all, don't repeatedly come back with minutieu. assuming you are not trolling for fun, really immerse yourself and behave like a normal individual -i.e. ask the odd question for clarity, everyone is happy to do that.

I hate to say it tho, if after 2-3 weeks you are still struggling with concepts around football trading (CS markets and entry points!), then i honestly think you should withdraw and formulate a learning plan. This may sound obvious and you may contend that the best learning is working inside the market. However, if you don't know what you're actually doing, I think it's a fruitless task.

[Kai]

That's your ego talking again and not you You don't need to actually predict anything as a trader, you just need to worry if the price is right or wrong.

What you don't even realize that by backing multiple scores you are practically trading the unders/overs anyway, so why needlessly complicate things. I'll tell you why, because it feels good for your ego to get the score right And because you've watched far too many CS themed videos from questionable traders. Although I don't actually believe you and I think you're just abusing the power of hindsight and forgetting the scores you've missed, your results and profit margins are just not there to support this.

Forget research, do zero research and try trading only based on what you see.

I am starting to understand what you are saying. What I am being drawn to are the high margins. Take the example of 2-1. It is typically 11 but over 2.5 is typically 2.

I can email an image where I have backed 2-2 and 3-3 of Augsburg v Bayern if you want.

You're treating the exchange like a bookie by sticking exclusively to back bets. There are "high margins of profit" in laying too, try laying 1.10 for 100 pounds and see what that looks like. Or laying Serena Williams at 1.02 for large amounts, you haven't even seen higher margins

[Derek27]

It is incredibly frustrating to trade out early or not take some of the trades as it makes a huge impact on the profit margin. There are times where I could have got 400% but I am looking more information that supports my plans. Like the game in Argentina, if there were more stats that support 2 or more goals in the first half there would be more reason for me to back it.

I've already told you how to deal with this problem. Either find a bookie that accepts bets on football after the match has been completed, or just do what all other traders do and accept that you're taking a gamble and will never get the maximum possible out of a market.

No trader is ever likely to be successful until they've shaken off this common cognitive bias.

So what should I be doing instead. Not taking these trades in the first place?

The first thing you need to understand is that when you're gambling, you sometimes win and sometimes lose. The aim is to have profits that exceed your losses long-term, not to eliminate losses altogether. If you can't get to grips with that you may as well give up!

Trading is similar except there is an in-between. You can lose a larger win for a smaller win (and less risk). You're not actually coming up with reasons why you should have waited - you're just talking through your, I mean with the benefit of hindsight. We'd all make 500% more if we let our winning bets run and closed the ones that lose. You're experiencing what every trader on this forum is experiencing but most of us regard it as normal and don't get frustrated.

[JustLukeYou]

I've already told you how to deal with this problem. Either find a bookie that accepts bets on football after the match has been completed, or just do what all other traders do and accept that you're taking a gamble and will never get the maximum possible out of a market.

No trader is ever likely to be successful until they've shaken off this common cognitive bias.

So what should I be doing instead. Not taking these trades in the first place?

ignore CS markets. look at the OU markets. Kai just mentioned this (I mentioned it over 2 weeks ago also). You can also selectively target the Match Odds, but this options requires a deep reading of the game assuming you manage to get good value to begin with.

I think personally, you are going about this completely ar$e about elbow. You should be learning the basics (there are many videos and threads on here that discuss OU markets and football trading in general). Rather than machine gunning the forum everytime you NEARLY get a good value trade. just take a LOT more time and paper trade ideas, make observations and above all, don't repeatedly come back with minutieu. assuming you are not trolling for fun, really immerse yourself and behave like a normal individual -i.e. ask the odd question for clarity, everyone is happy to do that.

I hate to say it tho, if after 2-3 weeks you are still struggling with concepts around football trading (CS markets and entry points!), then i honestly think you should withdraw and formulate a learning plan. This may sound obvious and you may contend that the best learning is working inside the market. However, if you don't know what you're actually doing, I think it's a fruitless task.

Okay,

I will drop the CS market. Because I am just dealing with pennies I am testing different things. I noticed that Paulo Rebelo trades a lot of Under/Over but I rarely see any value in them. I did with River Plate in Argentina. It was 4 for 2 or more goals in the first half but would you consider that gambling still?

There is a great video on YouTube from someone who looks for low scoring matches at half time. He says he watches the first ten minutes to see if the players are pushing for more goals and trades the market for 1+ goal. So it if is 1-0 he trades the 2+ goals market.

[JustLukeYou]

Going back to Paulo Rebelo's videos he seems to laying and backing various U/0 markets. For example backing Over 2.5 but laying Under 4.5 goals. Is he using some form calculation method that could be set up on a spreadsheet? I noticed in some videos he is talking to a colleague/assistant.