Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?

[JustLukeYou]

Because I personally think stats are near useless for trading. I've expressed a more detailed opinion on it here : viewtopic.php?p=198768#p198768

Forget that video, do a search on Youtube for Theo Borges Italia vs Holanda and skip to 1h and 33 mins, you can see a trader applying this strategy there. That's all I can say, you can fill the rest there. Have fun

"Contrary to popular belief it is not about predicting results and anticipating goals whilst completely ignoring the prices on offer, it's about reading the game situations themselves whilst working out your own prices for any given situation in comparison to the ones on offer, it's simply about working out the risk/reward of those situations, and if that ratio is very favorable then why not get involved. "

In the post you say this, what do you mean by working out your own prices? Can you give an example.

[Kai]

Nope, sorry. You'll have to work that one out yourself or base it on trading examples from Peter, Rebelo and Psychoff. I think you've more than filled your question quota for this week, at least for m

Should spend less time on the forums and Youtube and more time on the markets.

[JustLukeYou]

Nope, sorry. You'll have to work that one out yourself or base it on trading examples from Peter, Rebelo and Psychoff. I think you've more than filled your question quota for this week, at least for m

Should spend less time on the forums and Youtube and more time on the markets.

I am setting up a spreadsheet that I just need to fill in. This should help me to be a lot more disciplined.

[Derek27]

Because I personally think stats are near useless for trading. I've expressed a more detailed opinion on it here : viewtopic.php?p=198768#p198768

Forget that video, do a search on Youtube for Theo Borges Italia vs Holanda and skip to 1h and 33 mins, you can see a trader applying this strategy there. That's all I can say, you can fill the rest there. Have fun

"Contrary to popular belief it is not about predicting results and anticipating goals whilst completely ignoring the prices on offer, it's about reading the game situations themselves whilst working out your own prices for any given situation in comparison to the ones on offer, it's simply about working out the risk/reward of those situations, and if that ratio is very favorable then why not get involved. "

In the post you say this, what do you mean by working out your own prices? Can you give an example.

I've answered that question before. You use your judgement, which you'll get from experience. It's like judging when and how hard to press the brake peddle when approaching a red light. No video or maths can give you the answer. I know you're allergic to doing any work and want everything presented to you but it's not possible in the real world.

[JTEDL]

Should spend less time on the forums and Youtube and more time on the markets.

^this - best way to learn

[Dallas]

Is it possible trade two markets in the same match to par them off against one another?

Yes, if you know what you are doing, but if you can't trade one, why will trading two help?

The odds didn't decay enough to allow me to trade out for a profit on backing less than 3 goals

Decay is something that's reasonably easy to learn about. The fact it didn't decay enough was nothing to do with the market, it was to do with the fact you were guessing rather than knowing how the price would move and how quickly. If you're making so much use of the BA forum I can only assume you're a BA subscriber, so take a look at SoccerMystic as previously suggested, it will show you, in real time, what you possible PL is at anytime and for any time goals might be scored. I don't know why you're not using it, it tells you, you're guessing.

If you're struggling to grasp what Shaun said here and back on Page 11 of this thread (and what several other users have repeatably told you) try and spare 5 minutes to read and absorb the following posts, it even includes many images so like Shaun's post I don't think it can be any clearer of how a trader should be thinking and were to find opportunities - and how the likes Rebelo on are thinking throughout a game.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=12116

If you have the gift for spotting when goals are about to be scored as you say you do you should make a fortune and lose very little if anything when your wrong

[Derek27]

Some people have admiration for our patience, but I'm full of admiration to the people who resisted wading into this and other topics Luke started.

[JustLukeYou]

Is it possible trade two markets in the same match to par them off against one another?

Yes, if you know what you are doing, but if you can't trade one, why will trading two help?

The odds didn't decay enough to allow me to trade out for a profit on backing less than 3 goals

Decay is something that's reasonably easy to learn about. The fact it didn't decay enough was nothing to do with the market, it was to do with the fact you were guessing rather than knowing how the price would move and how quickly. If you're making so much use of the BA forum I can only assume you're a BA subscriber, so take a look at SoccerMystic as previously suggested, it will show you, in real time, what you possible PL is at anytime and for any time goals might be scored. I don't know why you're not using it, it tells you, you're guessing.

If you're struggling to grasp what Shaun said here and back on Page 11 of this thread (and what several other users have repeatably told you) try and spare 5 minutes to read and absorb the following posts, it even includes many images so like Shaun's post I don't think it can be any clearer of how a trader should be thinking and were to find opportunities - and how the likes Rebelo on are thinking throughout a game.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=12116

If you have the gift for spotting when goals are about to be scored as you say you do you should make a fortune and lose very little if anything when your wrong

Many thanks Dallas,

I will read through this later today, currently my PC is updating. I did follow Kai's advice and traded Celta Vigo match at half time. It was 0-0 and Celta Vigo soon scored but I backed it instead of laying it. What are the benefits of laying. If you at 1.25 for £25 liability you get the same return as if you backed 4.00 at £25.

I wouldn't say I have the knack of knowing when a goal will be scored, but in recent weeks there have been occasions when I thought either team would win 2-1 I would trade out as soon I was in profit. There have also been odds I haven't backed. For example, I went through the stats for a River Plate match, I was sure there would be 2 or more goals in the first half but just didn't back it and there was 2 goals at great odds of 4.

[Derek27]

I was sure there would be 2 or more goals in the first half but just didn't back it and there was 2 goals at great odds of 4.

Why didn't you back it if you were sure of it??

Everybody on this forum knows the answer to that question except you! If you can't figure it out you may as well give up, as you will continue going round in circles.

[JustLukeYou]

I was sure there would be 2 or more goals in the first half but just didn't back it and there was 2 goals at great odds of 4.

Why didn't you back it if you were sure of it??

Everybody on this forum knows the answer to that question except you! If you can't figure it out you may as well give up, as you will continue going round in circles.

Probably looking at to many games.

[JustLukeYou]

Just watching Sassuolo v Inter Milan. Inter Milan were all over them like a rash and you tell they would score. Just scored a penalty but the odds were around 1.9 for another goal to be scored. Just not placing trades when I see them.

[Speculator_3]

I will read through this later today, currently my PC is updating. I did follow Kai's advice and traded Celta Vigo match at half time. It was 0-0 and Celta Vigo soon scored but I backed it instead of laying it. What are the benefits of laying. If you at 1.25 for £25 liability you get the same return as if you backed 4.00 at £25.

You mean to say "as if you backed 5.00 at £25", not 4.00.

Well consider this: suppose you lay a team that is leading 1-0 at 1.25 for £25 liability, and then you don't trade out at all. Then if the final score is 1-1, you have a profit of £100. Whereas if you backed the losing team at 5.00 for £25, you would have lost £25...

[JustLukeYou]

I will read through this later today, currently my PC is updating. I did follow Kai's advice and traded Celta Vigo match at half time. It was 0-0 and Celta Vigo soon scored but I backed it instead of laying it. What are the benefits of laying. If you at 1.25 for £25 liability you get the same return as if you backed 4.00 at £25.

You mean to say "as if you backed 5.00 at £25", not 4.00.

Well consider this: suppose you lay a team that is leading 1-0 at 1.25 for £25 liability, and then you don't trade out at all. Then if the final score is 1-1, you have a profit of £100. Whereas if you backed the losing team at 5.00 for £25, you would have lost £25...

Sorry I mean if you back odds of 5 for there to a be a goal you would get the same result as if you laid it. Why are people so focused on laying?

[JustLukeYou]

Does anyone have a 'process' for backing or laying what they believe in will happen. Before the current Real Sociedad matched kicked off I went through the form and you can see that Sociedad score almost all their goals in the second half and Betis conceded most of their goals in the second half. Betis got a lucky goal early on and the odds for Sociedad shot up to 3 despite the form of scoring plenty of goals in the second half so I backed it and traded it out for 120% profit after going 2-1 up. But there are more odds like this that I haven't backed that have won than odds that I have backed.

[Kai]

Everybody on this forum knows the answer to that question except you! If you can't figure it out you may as well give up, as you will continue going round in circles.

The questions never stop Derek, do they I am very familiar with this type of personality, like I was telling Shaun the other day, that's why I'm convinced that Luke will give up. This is a person that has practically given up on his toy making business (if that part is true) and is spending all his time on the forum/Youtube/Smarkets looking for other easy ways to make money.

You don't need 277 posts to realize that someone is not here to learn. This is a common issue with most "Millennials" who are used to having instant (internet) access to all sorts of things and they're used to instant gratification in general, everything is fast and instant in their world so they assume that trading is too. But even so, Luke seems to be an extreme case.