Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?

[JustLukeYou]

To calculate your EV Luke you are first going to have to come up with a value for your spidey sense to compare against the odds on offer.

The odds on offer are 2.4 but I think they should be 2.6.

Is there also a BetAngel video which explains what EV is?

Your question was answered 3 posts ago. Don't you bother reading your replies?

Derek, seriously unless you can write in sentences that explain things or are useful like some people do on this forum can you please not get involved. You are wasting your own time. This must be the sixth time I have asked now. It's as if you are constantly trying to cause arguments instead of adding any value.

[JustLukeYou]

Google "Positive expectancy" and "Trade expectancy". If that doesn't keep you quiet then nothing will.

If you're not sure how to get to Google, then just type 'google' into Alta Vista and follow the link.

I have watched a number of videos but no one seems to be able to explain what expected value and how its used in football trading.

As far as I can tell all the odds available are negative but you can make your own odds up which are positive.

Shaun, could you please spend 9 seconds writing a short sentence on what expected value is and how it used in football trading.

[Derek27]

You're not likely to understand it until you've learned basic trading, as I keep saying.

You take a position expecting a goal to be scored or not to be scored and trade out at a specific time for a profit?

I doubt he'll ever understand trading if he hasn't got it by now.

I gave an explanation of basic trading and you ignored it.

Taking a position based on whether or not you expect a goal to be scored has little to do with trading. As I keep saying you're not even interested in learning the basics.

I think you're quoting a sentence you heard on the videos and misapplying it. That's not, as you described it, an explanation of the basics of trading.

[JustLukeYou]

You take a position expecting a goal to be scored or not to be scored and trade out at a specific time for a profit?

I gave an explanation of basic trading and you ignored it.

Taking a position based on whether or not you expect a goal to be scored has little to do with trading. As I keep saying you're not even interested in learning the basics.

I think you're quoting a sentence you heard on the videos and misapplying it. That's not, as you described it, an explanation of the basics of trading.

Derek, please stop wasting your own time. You are spending your time on a forum and posting messages that offer absolutely no use or benefit whatsoever. If you said

"Basic football trading is..."

Then that would be useful and constructive where as you are just wasting your own time. Please for the seventh time, please do not get involved and allow other people who can contribute to a forum positively to get involved.

All your doing is explaining how NOT to do something when in 10 seconds you could explain HOW to do something so we could be here for eternity. I hope that makes things clear.

[Derek27]

The odds on offer are 2.4 but I think they should be 2.6.

Is there also a BetAngel video which explains what EV is?

Your question was answered 3 posts ago. Don't you bother reading your replies?

Derek, seriously unless you can write in sentences that explain things or are useful like some people do on this forum can you please not get involved. You are wasting your own time. This must be the sixth time I have asked now. It's as if you are constantly trying to cause arguments instead of adding any value.

Let's be honest, you, me, and every person who reads, nevermind posts to this topic is wasting their time!

I'll try and explain the sentence in more detail.

Your: that means belonging to you.

question: a request for information instigated by you.

was answered: the request has been satified.

3 posts ago: if you scroll the page on your web browser to go back 3 posts you'll find the answer to your question.

[JustLukeYou]

Your question was answered 3 posts ago. Don't you bother reading your replies?

Derek, seriously unless you can write in sentences that explain things or are useful like some people do on this forum can you please not get involved. You are wasting your own time. This must be the sixth time I have asked now. It's as if you are constantly trying to cause arguments instead of adding any value.

Let's be honest, you, me, and every person who reads, nevermind posts to this topic is wasting their time!

I'll try and explain the sentence in more detail.

Your: that means you.

question: a request for information instigated by you.

was answered: the request has been satified.

3 posts ago: if you scroll the page on your web browser to go back 3 posts you'll find the answer to your question.

Do you mean the link to Wikipedia, please don't say you mean the link to Wikipedia!

[Speculator_3]

What would be helpful is if someone explained what EV is. It isn't mentioned in the Betfair Trading Crash Course.

Perhaps this example will best illustrate the concept of EV. Suppose me and you play a game where a coin is flipped. If it lands heads, I give you £1, and if it lands tails, you give me £1. Now

a) Suppose that the coin is fair. This means the probability of it coming up heads is 1/2, and tails is also 1/2. Then EV is: 1 x 1/2 - 1 x 1/2 = 0 . So the EV is zero; this means that on average, you expect to lose as much as you gain, and your net profit / loss is zero. This makes sense, if you think about long term average: let's say we flipped the coin 1000 times. Since it's fair, you expect to get roughly 500 heads and 500 tails - hence you pay me £500 and I pay you £500, and so overall you end up with the starting amount of capital. Hence there is no benefit for you in playing this game. You will not make a profit.

b) now suppose that you, and only you, know that the coin is actually biased: the probability of it coming up heads is in fact 2/3. But I don't know that. I assume the coin is fair. Would you play this game? Of course you would, because this time EV is positive: 1 x 2/3 - 1x1/3 = 1/3. Thus if we flip this biased coin 1000 times, you expect to have roughly £333 profit.

EV is a statistical / probabilistic concept. It is concerned with long-term "weighted" averages of a certain quantity of interest. In this case, the quantity of interest is your potential profit.

You expect to be in profit if the odds on offer are somehow better that the underlying actual probability of the event happening (or, rather, the probability of the event is better than the odds).

[Derek27]

Google "Positive expectancy" and "Trade expectancy". If that doesn't keep you quiet then nothing will.

If you're not sure how to get to Google, then just type 'google' into Alta Vista and follow the link.

I have watched a number of videos but no one seems to be able to explain what expected value and how its used in football trading.

As far as I can tell all the odds available are negative but you can make your own odds up which are positive.

Shaun, could you please spend 9 seconds writing a short sentence on what expected value is and how it used in football trading.

Your question has been answered by sa7med for fuck's sake!!!

Just read the replies!

[Derek27]

Shaun, could you please spend 9 seconds writing a short sentence on what expected value is and how it used in football trading.

Don't worry, I'll do it.

Expected value is quite simply [sorry, 9 seconds up]

[Derek27]

Taking a position based on whether or not you expect a goal to be scored has little to do with trading. As I keep saying you're not even interested in learning the basics.

I think you're quoting a sentence you heard on the videos and misapplying it. That's not, as you described it, an explanation of the basics of trading.

Derek, please stop wasting your own time. You are spending your time on a forum and posting messages that offer absolutely no use or benefit whatsoever. If you said

"Basic football trading is..."

Then that would be useful and constructive where as you are just wasting your own time. Please for the seventh time, please do not get involved and allow other people who can contribute to a forum positively to get involved.

All your doing is explaining how NOT to do something when in 10 seconds you could explain HOW to do something so we could be here for eternity. I hope that makes things clear.

Basic football trading is basic sports trading, which is only applied to football. I trust you understand what basic sports trading is.

[Derek27]

Derek, seriously unless you can write in sentences that explain things or are useful like some people do on this forum can you please not get involved. You are wasting your own time. This must be the sixth time I have asked now. It's as if you are constantly trying to cause arguments instead of adding any value.

Let's be honest, you, me, and every person who reads, nevermind posts to this topic is wasting their time!

I'll try and explain the sentence in more detail.

Your: that means you.

question: a request for information instigated by you.

was answered: the request has been satified.

3 posts ago: if you scroll the page on your web browser to go back 3 posts you'll find the answer to your question.

Do you mean the link to Wikipedia, please don't say you mean the link to Wikipedia!

NO - I mean the contents of the post that includes a link to Wikipedia. The link just explains it more thoroughly if you want to fully understand it. What exactly is wrong with the Wikipedia page (I haven't actually looked at it)?

[Speculator_3]

Further, take the example on Eintracht vs Leverkusen game I gave you on this very thread. As I remember, the Eintract win odds that were given on Betfair were 2.98. You verified that EV is zero. The odds of 2.98 correspond to probability of 1/2.98 = 0.3357 of Eintracht winning the game.

Now suppose that you've done extensive analysis on Eintracht / looked into a crystal ball and you are convinced that in fact the probability of Eintracht winning the game is higher. It's actually 0.5.

This means that your EV will be positive. Thus, if you take the odds of 2.98 (and this game repeats itself over and over and over gain hundreds / thousandths of times), you will be in profit.

Remember:EV is concerned with long term averages. This is why people tell you that you need to trade hundreds of matches to evaluate whether overall you are in profit or loss.

[JustLukeYou]

I think you're quoting a sentence you heard on the videos and misapplying it. That's not, as you described it, an explanation of the basics of trading.

Derek, please stop wasting your own time. You are spending your time on a forum and posting messages that offer absolutely no use or benefit whatsoever. If you said

"Basic football trading is..."

Then that would be useful and constructive where as you are just wasting your own time. Please for the seventh time, please do not get involved and allow other people who can contribute to a forum positively to get involved.

All your doing is explaining how NOT to do something when in 10 seconds you could explain HOW to do something so we could be here for eternity. I hope that makes things clear.

Basic football trading is basic sports trading, which is only applied to football. I trust you understand what basic sports trading is.

Derek27, I want to us to sort this out as it disruptive to this forum. I want you to spend 10 seconds explaining what basic football trading is. If you can't meet that challenge then you have to agree to not reply to any of my posts. At the moment you behaving like a bitter old man / wise-ass that is constantly disrupting constructive discussions.

Either accept the challenge and contribute to this discussion or keep out.

[Derek27]

What would be helpful is if someone explained what EV is. It isn't mentioned in the Betfair Trading Crash Course.

Perhaps this example will best illustrate the concept of EV. Suppose me and you play a game where a coin is flipped. If it lands heads, I give you £1, and if it lands tails, you give me £1. Now

a) Suppose that the coin is fair. This means the probability of it coming up heads is 1/2, and tails is also 1/2. Then EV is: 1 x 1/2 - 1 x 1/2 = 0 . So the EV is zero; this means that on average, you expect to lose as much as you gain, and your net profit / loss is zero. This makes sense, if you think about long term average: let's say we flipped the coin 1000 times. Since it's fair, you expect to get roughly 500 heads and 500 tails - hence you pay me £500 and I pay you £500, and so overall you end up with the starting amount of capital. Hence there is no benefit for you in playing this game. You will not make a profit.

b) now suppose that you, and only you, know that the coin is actually biased: the probability of it coming up heads is in fact 2/3. But I don't know that. I assume the coin is fair. Would you play this game? Of course you would, because this time EV is positive: 1 x 2/3 - 1x1/3 = 1/3. Thus if we flip this biased coin 1000 times, you expect to have roughly £333 profit.

EV is a statistical / probabilistic concept. It is concerned with long-term "weighted" averages of a certain quantity of interest. In this case, the quantity of interest is your potential profit.

You expect to be in profit if the odds on offer are somehow better that the underlying actual probability of the event happening.

I'm grateful for your efforts even if you don't get a thank you from Luke, but I think he really wants an explanation in a single, easy to understand sentence. He's got another 500 videos to watch and doesn't have the time to read and take in that.

[JustLukeYou]

Further, take the example on Eintracht vs Leverkusen game I gave you on this very thread. As I remember, the Eintract win odds that were given on Betfair were 2.98. You verified that EV is zero. The odds of 2.98 correspond to probability of 1/2.98 = 0.3357 of Eintracht winning the game.

Now suppose that you've done extensive analysis on Eintracht / looked into a crystal ball and you are convinced that in fact the probability of Eintracht winning the game is higher. It's actually 0.5.

This means that your EV will be positive. Thus, if you take the odds of 2.98 (and this game repeats itself over and over and over gain hundreds / thousandths of times), you will be in profit.

Remember:EV is concerned with long term averages. This is why people tell you that you need to trade hundreds of matches to evaluate whether overall you are in profit or loss.

Okay, so that helps a lot. Sho se EV in a practical sense during a live match for example. At the moment I sometimes see odds and think they are way to high and back them because they offer real value based on what I expect to happen.

I am planning to focus on trading specific teams as at the moment I am taking a complete scatter gun approach, do you think that will help me to identify to use this process.

I have set up a spreadsheet calculator but I am currently using the odds provided by the markets ould apply my own odds as I can only lay or back the odds provided the market.

I have to say your reply is top quality. Many thanks.

Bloody hell my insert button is stuck I cant edit text properly.