Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?

[Derek27]

I'll be going to bed soon. I wouldn't be surprised if a few more pages are added to this thread by the time I'm up.

[JustLukeYou]

Luke, I think it's fairly obvious that you won't have much understanding of what Speculator_3 said, considering you needed me to break down a simple uncomplicated sentence. You gave Shaun 9 seconds, and me 10 to explain what you want, but your new favourite teacher has all the time in the world.

Speculator_3 has just told you something that I've been telling you for, don't know how long but it feels like two years:-

I've told you that several times!

(I should point out that several posts have been submitted to this thread as I post this - I'm still working my way through the thread).

Derek27, if you said "You want to back odds that are higher then what they should be or lay odds that are lower than they should be that would be actionable"

People ACT on ACTIONS.

A CTA, Call To Action.

I sell on Amazon, Amazon is Call To Action machine that generates many billions of dollars.

FOR FUCK'S SAKE, are you seriously telling me that you didn't know that???

You run a business selling toys with a turnover of £250K a year and you didn't even know you have to sell for more than you buy???

Backing and laying are the same as buying and selling - you sell for more than a defined value and buy for less than that value!

I told you to do the beginner's course which would have told you that!

Derek, I have been doing MatchedBetting for around 3 years. I know what Backing and Laying is. I have asked you not stay out of these discussions and there is a reason for it.

[Kai]

You know you're doing it wrong when your number of forum posts far exceeds your number of trades

325 posts and only 20ish trades? Big yikes.

[JustLukeYou]

You know you're doing it wrong when your number of forum posts far exceeds your number of trades

325 posts and only 20ish trades? Big yikes.

Some kindly explained what Expected Value but how can it be used in a live match. You can't sit and perform calculations live in a match?

[Kai]

Rebelo already explained how to use it live in the video with the two grandmas that I linked earlier. It's not a formula, it's a feeling based on experience. The two grandmas represent your average mug punter, which is basically you.

[JustLukeYou]

Rebelo already explained how to use it live in the video with the two grandmas that I linked earlier. It's not a formula, it's a feeling based on experience. The two grandmas represent your average mug punter, which is basically you.

So why did Peter ask what the Expected Value was?

[Jukebox]

Euler actually asked:

What's your EV so far?

[Kai]

To be fair you are getting closer Luke to the core issue, and the main question. You took the scenic route but that's the right question, and I think this is where you'll give up when you realize that you won't be able to calculate your own EV. Because to do that you would need hundreds and probably thousands of matches of experience, and even then it's not a guarantee that you will develop this skill that only a select few traders posses.

[JustLukeYou]

To be fair you are getting closer Luke to the core issue, and the main question. You took the scenic route but that's the right question, and I think this is where you'll give up when you realize that you won't be able to calculate your own EV. Because to do that you would need hundreds and probably thousands of matches of experience, and even then it's not a guarantee that you will develop this skill that only a select few traders posses.

Kai, I have learnt a lot over the previous two weeks. I am going to focus on trading a select group of teams which does pose one problem. Let's say for example I studied Ipswich who are top of Division 1. How will I know that there will be value in any of Ipswich's games. Currently I look at football matches and look for value. If I see value I back it like I did with Flamengo last night and almost always making a profit. But often I am not backing the value when I see it. Other times I am looking at matches and not seeing any value. Let's say I knew Ipswich town very well and how it negatively impacts their chances of winning if their central midfielder isn't playing. How will I find value in Ipswich games if there is no value?

[Kai]

Kai, I have learnt a lot over the previous two weeks.

Maybe that is a lot by your standards, but you're still light years away from being a profitable trader. At this current rate of progress you will become profitable sometime around 2030 and that is not a joke.

Imagine how long it would take you to learn the things that you've learned so far, without the help of the forum. And you called the forum useless more than once, that is why people have run out of patience and you can hardly blame them.

How will I know that there will be value in any of Ipswich's games.

Through experience.

Let's say I knew Ipswich town very well and how it negatively impacts their chances of winning if their central midfielder isn't playing. How will I find value in Ipswich games if there is no value?

Through experience.

[jimibt]

Luke -REQUIRED watching for you. Might be tough as it's about 30 minutes, but it covers many of the questions you've asked over your 2 weeks journey. Of particular interest is the finding that on average, traders take about 12-15 months to grok what's going on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-ZeKmMCd-0

[JustLukeYou]

Kai, I have learnt a lot over the previous two weeks.

Maybe that is a lot by your standards, but you're still light years away from being a profitable trader. At this current rate of progress you will become profitable sometime around 2030 and that is not a joke.

Imagine how long it would take you to learn the things that you've learned so far, without the help of the forum. And you called the forum useless more than once, that is why people have run out of patience and you can hardly blame them.

How will I know that there will be value in any of Ipswich's games.

Through experience.

Let's say I knew Ipswich town very well and how it negatively impacts their chances of winning if their central midfielder isn't playing. How will I find value in Ipswich games if there is no value?

Through experience.

Kai, feel free to be completely blunt with me. How come over the 2 weeks I am either making a profit or identifying possible trades that I am trading?

Is it beginners luck?

[Kai]

Kai, feel free to be completely blunt with me. How come over the 2 weeks I am either making a profit or identifying possible trades that I am trading?

Is it beginners luck?

Yes, I believe it is beginners luck, the sample of 20 trades is too small to draw any conclusions, everyone and their dog will tell you that. I would say that everyone has a few false dawn moments at the start, before it dawns on them for real, so it's very normal. Very easy for a newbie to get overexcited by that, I've done that plenty of times.

I had several false dawns and I was getting beginners luck with a few strategies as well, thought I already linked one for you earlier here? viewtopic.php?p=198700#p198700

The most likely outcome of your "backing value" betting approach by anticipating random goals would be that you convince yourself that you've got an incredible edge there and then scale your stakes, only for your results to then start reverting back to mean and you start losing serious money, and then the emotions are likely to make everything 10x worse. That being said, going through this terrible experience does help a lot, some would say that it's almost a requirement, in order to become a decent trader.

[JustLukeYou]

Kai, feel free to be completely blunt with me. How come over the 2 weeks I am either making a profit or identifying possible trades that I am trading?

Is it beginners luck?

Yes, I believe it is beginners luck, the sample of 20 trades is too small to draw any conclusions, everyone and their dog will tell you that. I would say that everyone has a few false dawn moments at the start, before it dawns on them for real, so it's very normal. Very easy for a newbie to get overexcited by that, I've done that plenty of times.

I had several false dawns and I was getting beginners luck with a few strategies as well, thought I already linked one for you earlier here? viewtopic.php?p=198700#p198700

The most likely outcome of your "backing value" betting approach by anticipating random goals would be that you convince yourself that you've got an incredible edge there and then scale your stakes, only for your results to then start reverting back to mean and you start losing serious money, and then the emotions are likely to make everything 10x worse. That being said, going through this terrible experience does help a lot, some would say that it's almost a requirement, in order to become a decent trader.

You were laying prices at 10!

[Kai]

You were laying prices at 10!

I was. The OP of that thread was laying prices at 500.

There's only one way for you to prove that it's not beginner's luck, get a very large sample of trades (500-1000) in your P&L that show big profit.