BSP Book Percentage

[Bear's The Name]

Hi there,

Does any one here have any insights as to how the BSP total percentage averages out over time? My guess is the long term average would be close to 100% but in recent times I have noticed that on UK horse racing it seems to have been lower more often than not with many books coming in at around 97% or 98%.

Is there any reason why there should be so many over broke books recently? Is it just a case of more money on the lay side than the back and something that market forces will correct if it continues.

Of course I could be imagining it, it's only based on me totting up the prices manually after the race goes off I don't have any actual stats, but I'd be interested in anyone's views on the subject. Thanks,

[LinusP]

Here is UK racing (WIN) for the last few years.


market_year round(avg(book), 3) percentage_below_100 percentage_above_100
2016 100.216 45.5 54.5
2017 100.209 42.7 57.3
2018 100.247 41.9 58.1
2019 100.147 43.8 56.2

[weemac]

These figures are a surprise - my impression from casual observation was that it had slid from 101-102% a few years ago down to overbroke this year.

[Bear's The Name]

That's very interesting, thank-you. My observation is that it was higher earlier in the year - for example, I seem to recall lots of overround books at the Cheltenham Festival but that in the last few months it has fallen below 100%, especially in the last few weeks.