Today's Football

[Kafkaesque]

If that's your view then you could lay Braga (1.49 at moment)

if they concede - cash out
if it stays 0-0 price will drift from KO
if they go 1-0 up, price will be around 1.17 - then you have a decision to make (stay in or trade out for loss)

Simples

Highlighted part is simply not true.

[JTEDL]

I meant if score stays 0-0 then Braga price will slowly drift, draw price will come in, underdog will be pretty much static.

[Kafkaesque]

I meant if score stays 0-0 then Braga price will slowly drift, draw price will come in, underdog will be pretty much static.

Yes, I know, but it remains categorically untrue.

Clearly, it will start happening at some stage due to time decay, but stating broadly that it will, especially from kickoff as you said initially, is poor advice as that'll seem the logical price evolvement to newbies. When in actual fact prices on favs very often remain static or will even shorten for the first 15 minutes and even as much as 30 minutes in. Don't have numbers for it, but off the top of my head roughly I'd say it happens 30-50% of matches with a 1.50 or below fav. More often the shorter the price.

That's quite relevant because that - when the price is static or shortening - is exactly the times where the match flow would indicate that a lay trade is about to go south very quickly, and the bait should be cut. So giving the advice that it'll drift slowly, ie. as it hasn't happened it will any second now, is incorrect and poor starting point to be giving people.

[JustLukeYou]

I meant if score stays 0-0 then Braga price will slowly drift, draw price will come in, underdog will be pretty much static.

Yes, I know, but it remains categorically untrue.

Clearly, it will start happening at some stage due to time decay, but stating broadly that it will, especially from kickoff as you said initially, is poor advice as that'll seem the logical price evolvement to newbies. When in actual fact prices on favs very often remain static or will even shorten for the first 15 minutes and even as much as 30 minutes in. Don't have numbers for it, but off the top of my head roughly I'd say it happens 30-50% of matches with a 1.50 or below fav. More often the shorter the price.

That's quite relevant because that - when the price is static or shortening - is exactly the times where the match flow would indicate that a lay trade is about to go south very quickly, and the bait should be cut. So giving the advice that it'll drift slowly, ie. as it hasn't happened it will any second now, is incorrect and poor starting point to be giving people.

I decided not to trade the winning outcome as I often got it wrong but I did profit from backing Under 5.5 goals but I was shocked as at one point it said £220,000 was available to back on Under 5.5. How the hell was this possible, surely there can't enough liquidity. The others scores were hovering around £1k max. Can anyone explain how the max available to back his £220k?

[Jukebox]

Luke,
I suggest you look up Betfair's cross market matching to answer this question.

[Kafkaesque]

I meant if score stays 0-0 then Braga price will slowly drift, draw price will come in, underdog will be pretty much static.

Yes, I know, but it remains categorically untrue.

Clearly, it will start happening at some stage due to time decay, but stating broadly that it will, especially from kickoff as you said initially, is poor advice as that'll seem the logical price evolvement to newbies. When in actual fact prices on favs very often remain static or will even shorten for the first 15 minutes and even as much as 30 minutes in. Don't have numbers for it, but off the top of my head roughly I'd say it happens 30-50% of matches with a 1.50 or below fav. More often the shorter the price.

That's quite relevant because that - when the price is static or shortening - is exactly the times where the match flow would indicate that a lay trade is about to go south very quickly, and the bait should be cut. So giving the advice that it'll drift slowly, ie. as it hasn't happened it will any second now, is incorrect and poor starting point to be giving people.

I decided not to trade the winning outcome as I often got it wrong but I did profit from backing Under 5.5 goals but I was shocked as at one point it said £220,000 was available to back on Under 5.5. How the hell was this possible, surely there can't enough liquidity. The others scores were hovering around £1k max. Can anyone explain how the max available to back his £220k?

I did write *for future reference* given that I answered after the match and you were asking for a strategy and not about the specific match. Well, you decided against and went somewhere else, and proclaims yet another profit on here. Good on you. In doing so, you show no signs of reflection on what I wrote and no thanks for it (not that I'm needy enough to demand so, but it does show reflection, that it's taken on board, and that I'm not wasting my time writing the response). Instead you come back with yet another question on yet another subject. Consider me another poster done, dusted, and out with you. Best of luck. You'll very much need it with this scatterbrained approach.

[Kafkaesque]

I find the Liverpool price curious to say the least.

With the fixture load of a club expecting themselves to go far in two other, bigger cups and a PL to go to the wire, plus a CWC looming, you'd think, Klopp will rotate heavlily, much like the opposition. Even if the opposition is more difficult than most early rounds. To be sure, Liverpool have more established, and better, players waiting in the wings for game time than Arsenal. But not by that much, and the younger players have looked quite good for Arsenal when called upon this year. Also the (expected) defensive core needed to at least avoid a defeat of Holding and Mustafi with Torreira in front would be starting for many PL teams, so not to shabby. Add in a, again likely starting, striker who's bang on form when called upon in Martinelli with 5 goals and 1 assist in three starts helps.

All in all I'd say the price is too influenced by form not relevant to teams coming out there, and to the strength of best starting 11 rather than the reserves actually playing. I've laid Liverpool heavily, hoping to trade out when lineups are in, but willing to evaluate up and early into the match if the price doesn't shift.

[Kai]

I'm expecting something like this from Liverpool. Curtis Jones was MOTM in the last cup game but I feel like Harvey Elliott and Origi should start ahead of him.

[Kai]

I've laid Liverpool heavily, hoping to trade out when lineups are in, but willing to evaluate up and early into the match if the price doesn't shift.

Well done Kaf

[Kafkaesque]

I've laid Liverpool heavily, hoping to trade out when lineups are in, but willing to evaluate up and early into the match if the price doesn't shift.

Well done Kaf

Cheers mate

Hope somebody get in on it. As I said in my reply to Luke; not really in it for the thank you's or well done's, but I am sometimes left wondering on here, whether I'm just talking (writing) into a vacuum. Which makes me contribute a lot less than I otherwise would.

Whenever Dallas once in while posts an update, when the forum reaches a milestone, I'm partly happy, because it's good for all of us. But equally a bit dishearthened, because this place could be so much more, with a lot less effort than goes into the software. Which should be the priority, by a long, long way, don't get me wrong. But still. A lot of promise dies before it gets off the ground on here.

Which is incidently also my personal theory as to why so many engage so much with - maybe - lost causes. Chasing what could be for this place. It is what it is, I guess.

[wearthefoxhat]

Someone found out quite early about the team Wolves were putting out tonight...(of course I missed it )

Wolves.GIF

[Kai]

Hope somebody get in on it. As I said in my reply to Luke; not really in it for the thank you's or well done's, but I am sometimes left wondering on here, whether I'm just talking (writing) into a vacuum. Which makes me contribute a lot less than I otherwise would.

Whenever Dallas once in while posts an update, when the forum reaches a milestone, I'm partly happy, because it's good for all of us. But equally a bit dishearthened, because this place could be so much more, with a lot less effort than goes into the software. Which should be the priority, by a long, long way, don't get me wrong. But still. A lot of promise dies before it gets off the ground on here.

Which is incidently also my personal theory as to why so many engage so much with - maybe - lost causes. Chasing what could be for this place. It is what it is, I guess.

I'll read that later after the game, just wanted to quickly say that Gary Neville just commented on the lineups and said he didn't expect them to be so weak. Professional pundit btw

Should be a great game, enjoy.

[Kafkaesque]

Someone found out quite early about the team Wolves were putting out tonight...(of course I missed it )


Wolves.GIF

Same with Liverpool. Jumped 8-10 ticks in seconds, 15 minutes before official lineups. Could be warm-ups giving it away though.

[Jukebox]

I'm expecting something like this from Liverpool. Curtis Jones was MOTM in the last cup game but I feel like Harvey Elliott and Origi should start ahead of him.

LOL Kai, Nice early tip thanks.

BTW Turns out Liv had Mustaphi up front

[Kai]

BTW Turns out Liv had Mustaphi up front

Haha, what a match though The lineup was one of the more obvious ones because of the injuries and knocks, even most of the journos got it right and some of them leaked a few bits and pieces beforehand

As I said in my reply to Luke; not really in it for the thank you's or well done's, but I am sometimes left wondering on here, whether I'm just talking (writing) into a vacuum. Which makes me contribute a lot less than I otherwise would.

Whenever Dallas once in while posts an update, when the forum reaches a milestone, I'm partly happy, because it's good for all of us. But equally a bit dishearthened, because this place could be so much more, with a lot less effort than goes into the software. Which should be the priority, by a long, long way, don't get me wrong. But still. A lot of promise dies before it gets off the ground on here.

Which is incidently also my personal theory as to why so many engage so much with - maybe - lost causes. Chasing what could be for this place. It is what it is, I guess.

I agree with that, all the more reason to appreciate what little quality discussions there are on the forum The older guys have been around forever and have probably seen it all far too many times to get involved yet again so it's understandable.

Btw regarding the preoff trade from what I can remember the initial drift to almost 2.50 came right when Liverpool teamnews came out, which came a lot earlier than Arsenal lineup. In cup competitions and Europe it's pretty normal for teamnews to come out 15-25 mins earlier than on the 1 hour mark like in the Premier League.