Today's Football

[Kafkaesque]

just wanted to quickly say that Gary Neville just commented on the lineups and said he didn't expect them to be so weak. Professional pundit btw

I do love me some pundits. It's money straight in the bank, when they talk absolute nonsense and you can just see the "betting public" taking their line of thought into the market place. When has Souness last said anything remotely insightful, and BT just seems to be having a laugh with Owen, Hartson and friends.

That said, one of the few I do have time and where I take note - in the more positive sense - is actually Gary Neville. Unlike a fair few pundits, who mainly seem to want to say controversial and/or critical things at every opportunity to keep their spot on tv, Neville seems mix positive and negative up and simply call things as he sees them, plus unlike most he looks beyond the last two matches.

Haha, what a match though

I can't make out with that smiley whether you intended that comment positively??? Don't know what was said on the channels everyone else was watching, but I was hearing a load of superlatives. I was clearly seeing a different match, than the talking heads on the box. What I saw was the worst match between two PL teams for a good, long time. Even accounting for it being a mix of players short of 1st team match fitness and youth, that was an absolute horror show. Just crammed full of horrendous decision making and shocking actions on the ball to boot. Sprinkled with a fair few brilliant actions though, and the combination made for a fun watch, but blimey me.

Klopp was beaming, as well he should, seeing a young team come back twice and scoring five in the process. But I suspect, and hope for their sake, that both he and Emery, when they rewatch this, will RUN to their sports science and physio departments to make sure that everything is in full, working order. Cause there wasn't many of these lads you'd want anywhere near an important PL match!

Btw regarding the preoff trade from what I can remember the initial drift to almost 2.50 came right when Liverpool teamnews came out, which came a lot earlier than Arsenal lineup. In cup competitions and Europe it's pretty normal for teamnews to come out 15-25 mins earlier than on the 1 hour mark like in the Premier League.

Thanks for that I'll hold my hands up and say I didn't realize that. But duly note for the future. I tend to stear clear of cup matches by and large, as I find league matches more manageable and profitable.

[darchas]

Hope somebody get in on it. As I said in my reply to Luke; not really in it for the thank you's or well done's, but I am sometimes left wondering on here, whether I'm just talking (writing) into a vacuum. Which makes me contribute a lot less than I otherwise would.

I got on it, cheers for the analysis, very helpful and a nice few quid.

Also wanted to say that I've spent probably the last four weeks reading through literally the entire football forum on here, and after a while it's easy to recognise those members that talk sense and are level headed, helpful and clear in what they write. Your posts are certainly ones i always paid extra attention to for their quality, so I absolutely appreciate your posts.

[Kai]

I tend to stear clear of cup matches by and large, as I find league matches more manageable and profitable.

Well, domestic and European cup matches probably provide some of the best preoff opportunities, it's a shame they don't come around too often but they can be fun trades. You saw that the price of 1.90 at Liverpool yesterday seemed pretty stupid but Arsenal becoming favorites in the end was laughable really, that was pure greed by the market imho.

If I had to generalize I'd say that the teams with a weak squad like Liverpool generally drift, while teams with a strong squad like City generally steam which is common sense really. Not looked at any data but from my experience the cup markets in general are trending much more, while the league markets are usually just ranging.

[darchas]

This is a strange one, overs 34 minutes into the match:

[Kafkaesque]

This is a strange one, overs 34 minutes into the match:

Strange maybe, but not as uncommon as you might at first glance think. It relates to my previous comment on the price for fav's which also don't necessarily decay "naturally". A few random thoughts (without any knowledge of the specific fixture).

It'll happen more often which matches like this - judging solely from the apparent pre price - with a fair few goals expected. It was expected that if a) there's a heavy fav, that they'll bang in one goal after another or if b) it's two evenly matched teams expecting to go at it basket style. So there's always the risk, or chance if you go at the trade the other way round, that one of these scenarios would play out even more significantly than expected pre, and look even more likely to cause a load of goals. Even 30+ into the match.

With that low level of liquidity, it only takes one or two traders to keep pushing the price around. It isn't necessarily a 100% fair reflection.

I just see Prague, and the Czech Rep probably isn't the worst, but as a rule I'm vary of Eastern Europe (and small leagues elsewhere). By all accounts match fixing is by rampant more rampant, than anyone would like (bar some syndicates, clearly). If something looks fishy, I'm instantly out of there. Unless of course it's obvious what's happening and it's exploitable. I always think back to Skenderbeu some years back, where the prices against them absolutely plummeted in the Europa League group stage, and it was dead clear two matches in, that there was an angle, and it was later revealed there was very good reason for it.

[darchas]

This is a strange one, overs 34 minutes into the match:

Strange maybe, but not as uncommon as you might at first glance think. It relates to my previous comment on the price for fav's which also don't necessarily decay "naturally". A few random thoughts (without any knowledge of the specific fixture).

It'll happen more often which matches like this - judging solely from the apparent pre price - with a fair few goals expected. It was expected that if a) there's a heavy fav, that they'll bang in one goal after another or if b) it's two evenly matched teams expecting to go at it basket style. So there's always the risk, or chance if you go at the trade the other way round, that one of these scenarios would play out even more significantly than expected pre, and look even more likely to cause a load of goals. Even 30+ into the match.

With that low level of liquidity, it only takes one or two traders to keep pushing the price around. It isn't necessarily a 100% fair reflection.

I just see Prague, and the Czech Rep probably isn't the worst, but as a rule I'm vary of Eastern Europe (and small leagues elsewhere). By all accounts match fixing is by rampant more rampant, than anyone would like (bar some syndicates, clearly). If something looks fishy, I'm instantly out of there. Unless of course it's obvious what's happening and it's exploitable. I always think back to Skenderbeu some years back, where the prices against them absolutely plummeted in the Europa League group stage, and it was dead clear two matches in, that there was an angle, and it was later revealed there was very good reason for it.

Thanks. That makes sense. I agree that the low liquidity makes it not a fair reflection. I steer clear of lower leagues but I've been doing some work watching odds movements and it's the first time I've come across something like this. I'm sure I'll see more of it as I go on!

[Kai]

I've been doing some work watching odds movements

Nicely done, you can find all sorts of trading angles and opportunities in football by studying the market and watching the price movements and the order flow in general, but also looking at the situation on the pitch and trying to frame hypothetical trades by comparing the upside to the downside at all times or after every goal.

You just have to be mindful of the frequency of those opportunities in general, that's one aspect of trading that is often overlooked. Not much use relying on an edge that only provides two opportunities per month or something like that.

[wearthefoxhat]

They think it's all over....

South.GIF

[Euler]

You'll never find value chasing short odds.

[Dallas]

This is where Saints whip them 0-6

[greenmark]

Apart from Arsenal the football world is currently upside down. Bizarre!

[Euler]

What's that strange smell? Probably roasted accas and challenges. It's very rare to find value at short odds.

[JTEDL]

Apart from Arsenal the football world is currently upside down. Bizarre!

Bayern Munich losing 5-1 at the moment also!

[greenmark]

Apart from Arsenal the football world is currently upside down. Bizarre!

Bayern Munich losing 5-1 at the moment also!

It's a conspiracy!! Wish I was in on it.

[greenmark]

Totally bonkers!! Victory from the jaws of defeat.
Commiserations for Euler and LeTiss. Boy, is sport brutal?