lay the 0-0 strategy development

[dcbrit2003]

Hi,

I'm looking to develop a sports trading strategy. The strategy is this :

Sport: Football
Market: correct score
Result: 0-0
Back/Lay: Lay

About 92-93% of matches result in a goal scored, but there are therefore consistently 7-8% of matches that remain 0-0 across leagues and seasons. I think I've figured out a way of reducing the risk of taking a significant hit to your profits when a match ends 0-0. It's this: BACK 0-0 at a *bookie* (thereby eliminating the liquidity issue at an exchange ) in the 90th - 92nd minute with a large enough position to completely hedge your Lay position at the exchange.

What I need to know is where can I find stats to see how many games that were 0-0 after 90 minutes went on to have a goal scored during injury time and where can I find real time info on how many minutes have been added to injury time by the 4th official? Ideally, I'd want to back at the bookies within 90 seconds of the match ending. Timing would be everything obviously but I have the skill set in real life to be able to cope with that

[Dallas]

You can download the data of all goal times for 70+ leagues over 15 years here
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=14776

[Kai]

Hi,

I'm looking to develop a sports trading strategy. The strategy is this :

Sport: Football
Market: correct score
Result: 0-0
Back/Lay: Lay

About 92-93% of matches result in a goal scored, but there are therefore consistently 7-8% of matches that remain 0-0 across leagues and seasons. I think I've figured out a way of reducing the risk of taking a significant hit to your profits when a match ends 0-0. It's this: BACK 0-0 at a *bookie* (thereby eliminating the liquidity issue at an exchange ) in the 90th - 92nd minute with a large enough position to completely hedge your Lay position at the exchange.

What I need to know is where can I find stats to see how many games that were 0-0 after 90 minutes went on to have a goal scored during injury time and where can I find real time info on how many minutes have been added to injury time by the 4th official? Ideally, I'd want to back at the bookies within 90 seconds of the match ending. Timing would be everything obviously but I have the skill set in real life to be able to cope with that

Are you sure that you've thought this through?

If you're laying 0-0 at higher odds then by the time you want to exit at 90mins you've already lost practically your entire staking liability, plus you're completely missing out on late goals too. Also, not sure what type of leagues you have in mind but there is no real liquidity issue, if the CS liquidity is a bit thin then look at the under 0.5 market which is effectively the same market, those are liquid enough for most leagues.

In general when laying CS I would suggest to look at the last 20ish minutes of matches, especially after the 0-0 price goes below 2, that's sort of the strategy that some good traders use.

[jimibt]

In general when laying CS I would suggest to look at the last 20ish minutes of matches, especially after the 0-0 price goes below 2, that's sort of the strategy that some good traders use.

i'd likewise look at this window and if you have good game reading, then especially looking at that last 10 minutes. some great value lays to be had IF you are on the ball. of course, i'm talking the talk, not necessarilly walking the walk on this one

[Kai]

In general when laying CS I would suggest to look at the last 20ish minutes of matches, especially after the 0-0 price goes below 2, that's sort of the strategy that some good traders use.

i'd likewise look at this window and if you have good game reading, then especially looking at that last 10 minutes. some great value lays to be had IF you are on the ball. of course, i'm talking the talk, not necessarilly walking the walk on this one

Yeah, although 0-0 is not an ideal scoreline for this approach, which is a completely different approach from what OP asked about. Because at 0-0 usually at least one team might be content with a point and might be even wasting time, it's ideally best used when a team has nothing left to lose.

[Atho55]

This is what I think the Premiership 1st goal profile looks like. Can`t particularise the extra time at 45 or 90 minutes hence the spikes.

Premiership 1st Goals over 90 mins.jpg

[Jukebox]

I wouldn't initially have guessed that the graph would show that 1st half time added on was twice as productive as time added on 2nd half - until I thought about it.

[dcbrit2003]

thanks for the replies so far, just one question: where do i get accurate real-time info on the amount of injury time added by the 4th official at the end of the 90 minutes?