http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_s ... 359587.stm
I wonder whether the hype surrounding Kauto Star has created a value lay.
He's only in third position in Massey's ratings for the race, considerably behind Long Run (see http://www.adrianmassey.com/15/rating.php).
What do you guys think?
Jeff
Can Kauto Star win fifth King George race at Kempton?
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
If Kauto Star turns up somewhere near his best then the others are running for 2nd place. He is now 11 and I have maintained for quite a while that we may have seen the best of him. You may recall that I opposed him on here for the Gold Cup and gave Imperial Commander as the horse to bet. I felt he had been over-raced last year but this year he had a blow at Down Royal and despite probably not being 100% for that race he beat his rivals fair and square.Ferru123 wrote:http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_s ... 359587.stm
I wonder whether the hype surrounding Kauto Star has created a value lay.
He's only in third position in Massey's ratings for the race, considerably behind Long Run (see http://www.adrianmassey.com/15/rating.php).
What do you guys think?
Jeff
Long Run has put up some blistering performances on flat tracks so Kempton should suit. My concern is that his jockey only gets the ride because his Father owns the horse. I am not saying he's a bad jockey but he also doesn't have the greatest style. There are times when he looks like he's trying to erect a deckchair on the horse as he flaps about. It's all well and good Nicky Henderson saying "he gets on well with the horse" - what else can he say? He would not want to upset the owner so to me it's making the best of it from the trainer's point of view.
It's not a race I would get involved with from a betting point of view but I will be cheering home Kauto Star for his 5th King George.
Oh and the Massey ratings are fine if used with other information but that's about it. Let's face it, if all you had to do was back the top rated and then wait to collect your payout we'd all be doing it. The fact we are not suggests they are no different to Timeform Raceform or RPR from the Racing Post. BTW The official handicapper has Kauto Star 28 lbs superior to Long Run. Once again there has to be some leeway in those marks but it would mean Kauto Star has to decline 14lbs and Long Run has to improve 14lb to bring them together.
Good luck if you oppose Kauto Star.
Hi JollyGreen
If you look at the stats for Massey's top rated selections (http://www.adrianmassey.com/sel/sel0.php), they produced an annual profit from 1991-2004. Thereafter, they produced annual losses.
My guess is that the market now factors in Massey's ratings, meaning they no longer give you an advantage.
Jeff
If you look at the stats for Massey's top rated selections (http://www.adrianmassey.com/sel/sel0.php), they produced an annual profit from 1991-2004. Thereafter, they produced annual losses.
My guess is that the market now factors in Massey's ratings, meaning they no longer give you an advantage.
Jeff
JollyGreen wrote: Oh and the Massey ratings are fine if used with other information but that's about it. Let's face it, if all you had to do was back the top rated and then wait to collect your payout we'd all be doing it.
I'm really looking forward to the race. I've sort of grown up with Kauto, Denman et al during my Betfair career so it would be really nice to see him romp home.
I think there will be strong support for Kauto tomorrow so I suspect he will shorten. A possible negative could be that Ruby Walsh is not on board?
I think there will be strong support for Kauto tomorrow so I suspect he will shorten. A possible negative could be that Ruby Walsh is not on board?
Fascinating, fascinating! 
Interesting, as a rough heuristic I've certainly noticed that value is definitely getting hard to find below a price of around $1.85 (on any sport). Below that price, if the sporting opposition is reasonably strong and there's even a slight doubt about fitness on the favorite, it's worth a lay I feel.
Kauto Star met the conditions for a good lay according to the above criteria. He was at a low price, he had reasonably strong opposition ('Long Run' was a class horse by all accounts) and there was a slight doubt due to his age.
Unfortunately I wasn't brave enough to take him on. Was anyone else?
Interesting, as a rough heuristic I've certainly noticed that value is definitely getting hard to find below a price of around $1.85 (on any sport). Below that price, if the sporting opposition is reasonably strong and there's even a slight doubt about fitness on the favorite, it's worth a lay I feel.
Kauto Star met the conditions for a good lay according to the above criteria. He was at a low price, he had reasonably strong opposition ('Long Run' was a class horse by all accounts) and there was a slight doubt due to his age.
Unfortunately I wasn't brave enough to take him on. Was anyone else?