Leaving the Horses to go back to Football...

[salmanim140i]

So I have been Trading the horse both live and in practise mode and what a roller coaster of a ride it has been. I have tried all sorts of trading Back to lay, Lay to back, scalping in play and pre, swing trading in play and pre. I have dutching, bookmaking, I have even tried laying the what I thought would be the outright looser using automation.

But I have had a few good outcomes but mainly all pretty negative. This I think is where the money is at, but I guess you need to be cut from a certain cloth to make it here. So for now I think I am going to have to park The horse markets for now and hopefully have a brain wave that will find me an edge or at least a profitable strategy.

So as I started in this "trading" game with Football seems only right to go back and revisit this. I say this because I think I have learned a lot from all the different strategies, tools and "tricks" I have tried to implement into the Horse Markets. I completely understand that you can not cross over strategies from one market to another but I think there are some tools and tips I could use that may aid and further help my Football trading.

I also Think I am going to need to work on my psychology as I really hate losing (even in practise mode), has any one got any good books to read?

But I did want to ask a question here regarding Stop losses and trailing stop losses in particular.

If I was to back the Draw or any of the over/unders market. If I was to enter the trade in play and put in a trailing stop loss, if the market was to then be suspended for a goal and obviously send the price right out would the stop loss kick in just before the market suspended or would it happen after and then potentially wipe out any profits made with the time decay factor.

I was thinking of setting up an automation rule that would place a back bet on these types of markets and trade out after a set time. but as a fail safe use the stop loss to help capture any profit in case a goal was scored.

Sorry for the long winded story for a straight forward question. But just need to get that off my chest.. haha


Thanks in advance again guys.

R

[Dallas]

Not much point in using a stop loss or trailing stop loss in football to get you out after a goal, it will only trigger when the price trades the other side of it and as you pointed out this could be by quite some way after a goal.
So price is 1.5, stop set to trigger at 1.6, a goal is scored market reforms around 2.4 after it unsuspends, your stop will trigger and be placed at 1.6 with no chance of being matched (unless another goal in your favour).

The best way to use a stop in football is via an automation/servant rule that will trigger following a goal/s and exit your position when the price reforms. This is where knowing your risk when you open a trade and where a price will likely be should a goal come and your trade breaks down will help you.

[MobiusGrey]

I had to check twice to make sure this wasn't a post I'd made a few months ago and had some how found its way to the top again. I could have posted this several times over over the years.

All I can say is don't give up, I agree horse racing is where the money is and lure and appeal of this will mean you'll concentrate on football for a week then be back to pre-race/in-running again.

In terms of psychology I'm very similar, the ONLY way I've found to master this is by fully automating my trading. I've read trading psychology books, "Trading to Win" was the most helpful but nothing could change my hatred of losing. I found trying to cut losers short, let winners run, don't worry about the losses etc like trying to change my sense of humour, it almost feels like it's just a part of who I am. For that reason I haven't manually traded for around 6 months and feel a whole load better for it!

Personally I started trying to build a fully automated strategy that would just break even, not trying to get that home run. Just something that over time would be break even, you should be able to achieve something like that just betting at random. I think the first one I came up with backed every favourite under 4.0 in the last 5 mins of every handicap race of the day and then greened up at 10s before the off. That was it, 3 rules, just to see if I could at least break even over the long term, wasn't trying to pay my mortgage or quit my job just break even.

I found that to be a good starting point having been like you, "well I can't trade horse racing I should stick to football" and doing that on and off for a few years. I'm not saying I've cracked it either by the way, what I have found is that the winning runs last longer these days, you might find something that works for a day, tweek it, lasts for a week before it starts losing, then you get something that lasts for a month or so, eventually there will be a tipping point where you're just in profit.

The problem I have found in football, in play, is that I was in two modes constantly depending on how I was trading. Either a); sat there shi**ing myself that a goal would go in or b) sat there shi**ing myself that a goal hadn't gone in. It seemed counter intuitive to 'trading'. Limited success trading pre match but christ it's slow and you need a fairly hefty account to get anywhere.

I'd say don't give up on the horse racing, to me especially with Bet Angel you've got everything there to make a winning strategy it's just about finding the right combination of conditions. This isn't infinite although it feels like it at times but try as many different combinations as you can. I moved up from my basic automated bot to using some of Dallas's servants and turning these into bots, the big moment came for me when I realised that you need a number of bots/servants to trade different race conditions, one bot definitely ain't a one size fits all unfortunately. You might have one bot that will only work on about 5 races in the day, you need a second, third and fourth one to trade the rest.

[Kai]

If I was to back the Draw or any of the over/unders market. If I was to enter the trade in play and put in a trailing stop loss, if the market was to then be suspended for a goal and obviously send the price right out would the stop loss kick in just before the market suspended or would it happen after and then potentially wipe out any profits made with the time decay factor.

I was thinking of setting up an automation rule that would place a back bet on these types of markets and trade out after a set time. but as a fail safe use the stop loss to help capture any profit in case a goal was scored.

If you're asking whether it's possible to set up a failsafe stoploss that would protect your profit in case of a goal by somehow getting in front of the market suspension to instantly hedge your position without any bet placement delay, then unfortunately the answer would be an emphatic no.

Forget psychology imho, you need to learn more about the markets themselves first. Based on the above question I don't think your psychology is the issue here and I disagree with the opinion of turning to automation in order to completely avoid having to deal with psychology.

I have tried all sorts of trading Back to lay, Lay to back, scalping in play and pre, swing trading in play and pre.

Well, the obvious problem here is that it's not really enough to simply try a bit of everything and hope at least one thing works, which is coincidentally everyone's favorite approach.

I think you need to ask yourself 2 main questions here:

1. Did I really try? Did I make a genuine serious attempt at it, or was I just messing about in practice mode? Because from my experience people have vastly different definitions of what "try" means and they are very quick to jump ship soon as they don't get the desired results.

2. Is one attempt enough to crack it even if it's a genuine one? Because it's highly unlikely that anyone would get it right on their first try, usually people have to make several attempts to get anywhere close.

[darchas]

I also Think I am going to need to work on my psychology as I really hate losing (even in practise mode), has any one got any good books to read?

I think the first step comes down to strategy, recognising that any successful strategy also includes losses. When you have a strategy that works then the losses don't matter as they're just part of trading.

Hating to lose feels like more of a gamblers mindset than a traders, i think there is probably books that can help but imo and experience once you're confident in your strategy the losses don't affect you.

[ShaunWhite]

I agree horse racing is where the money is and lure and appeal of this will mean you'll concentrate on football for a week then be back to pre-race/in-running again.

I'm not so sure about that, there are quite a few people earning eye-watering amounts of money just on football. Admittedly they're using substantial stakes but it's there.

[ShaunWhite]

I also Think I am going to need to work on my psychology as I really hate losing (even in practise mode), has any one got any good books to read?

Hating to lose feels like more of a gamblers mindset than a traders, i think there is probably books that can help but imo and experience once you're confident in your strategy the losses don't affect you.

+1
With overall confidence, losing can almost feel like a positive thing as strange as that sounds. There can be a feeling of "i was due that one", or "well that's got that out of the way". Personally I like a simple histogram chart of my results, it should eventually form into a nice bell curve and there's even a certain Tertris-y satisfaction about filling in the gaps in the chart.

Below I can see I'm due a few not so great days, definately more poor ones than good ones....so they won't be suprise when they happen. Might even feel quite nice to smooth that curve a bit because I like everything neat and tidy. If the right-hand side gets too far ahead then either I've suddenly improved (doubtful) or it's just money I've borrowed from the market and will probably give back later. I once read that you should mentally take a %age of each win and put in a jar labelled 'loses' and then when the loses come you can pay them out of that jar. That mental imagery worked quite well for me and combined with the visualisation of the actual stats, snapped me out of that losing is a bad thing feeling.

Screenshot_6.png

[Euler]

Back England

[mcgoo]

So I have been Trading the horse both live and in practise mode and what a roller coaster of a ride it has been. I have tried all sorts of trading Back to lay, Lay to back, scalping in play and pre, swing trading in play and pre. I have dutching, bookmaking, I have even tried laying the what I thought would be the outright looser using automation.

But I have had a few good outcomes but mainly all pretty negative. This I think is where the money is at, but I guess you need to be cut from a certain cloth to make it here. So for now I think I am going to have to park The horse markets for now and hopefully have a brain wave that will find me an edge or at least a profitable strategy.

So as I started in this "trading" game with Football seems only right to go back and revisit this. I say this because I think I have learned a lot from all the different strategies, tools and "tricks" I have tried to implement into the Horse Markets. I completely understand that you can not cross over strategies from one market to another but I think there are some tools and tips I could use that may aid and further help my Football trading.

I also Think I am going to need to work on my psychology as I really hate losing (even in practise mode), has any one got any good books to read?

But I did want to ask a question here regarding Stop losses and trailing stop losses in particular.

If I was to back the Draw or any of the over/unders market. If I was to enter the trade in play and put in a trailing stop loss, if the market was to then be suspended for a goal and obviously send the price right out would the stop loss kick in just before the market suspended or would it happen after and then potentially wipe out any profits made with the time decay factor.

I was thinking of setting up an automation rule that would place a back bet on these types of markets and trade out after a set time. but as a fail safe use the stop loss to help capture any profit in case a goal was scored.

Sorry for the long winded story for a straight forward question. But just need to get that off my chest.. haha


Thanks in advance again guys.

R

Your post echoes my sentiments of a week or 2 ago. I struggled for many years to see an edge (didn't think I had any after years of trying) in pre-off horse trading and decided to give it away. Similar to a reply above-I think you will find that your automation/bots will likely reflect your [risk averse-insert nature here] personality if you are planning to supplant automation as an emotional fix.
The break (as predicted via feedback here) has done me the world of good. I realised that I have got one and perhaps 2 edges pre-off but given the time zones in Aus and the varying liquidity, it has been difficult to practise the craft properly. FOMO and trying to force an edge in unsuitable markets because of a perceived lack of opportunity was my biggest enemy. Patience or a lack of it is very prevalent in my emotional make up. (Isn't it great how trading can reflect you -normally you need other people to point out your nature to you).I am also an emotional beastie and struggle with losing streaks and strong moves against my position as well as to maintain reason in the face of the bad red + can't seem to see when to get out vs when to wait it out.
As far as automation goes.. realising my perceived opportunity bias had given me a different reason to automate. I enjoy writing bots and have been delving heavily into bots+ servants and looking even more closely at the technical aspects of BA. This focus has done me good too. The point made earlier about needing different bots for different markets (also repeatedly touted by Euler re strategy for market and market for strategy) cannot be emphasised enough. Also ,the nuances and depth of this product become even more impressive the more I use it and takes a lot of time to fathom, for me anyway. (Still want more of course..OR conditions are coming, be great to have the ability to map high and low last traded from predefined points/times but I digress hehe )
Anyway, my point being, I recommend taking a break. Give yourself the freedom to admit (if you haven't already) that you don't have an edge and the psychology may improve along the way. Mine did (its been a big cpl of weeks ). I still am not trading manually and loving the space in my head. ..and something has shifted (perhaps accelerated after years of trying)..I hope permanently but it has been nice anyway: ---

Total of 80 markets over last 3 days on $5 stakes: Horse Racing: AUD46.44 | Tennis: -AUD2.72 Total P&L: AUD43.72..all automated or partially automated ...best result in years
Good luck

[salmanim140i]

Hi All,

Thanks for your comments I have taken it all on board.

In regards to giving it a really good go. I feel that I have, however as stated probably have not given it as long as I should have. I cant seem to kerb the emotion of hating to lose. I feel that I am very disciplined in managing losses and not allowing them to run away and cause utter devastation but still even if its a few pence makes me extremely pissed as I feel I just cant seem to get it right. However my journey has not been bad I started off with £150 which I got risk free from the matched betting scene but did not like how long that took to see the physical results so turned to trading as it seemed more of an "instant" result when being able to see the actual profits and progress. so from my £150 I have managed to increase that to £260, so not bad at all since starting in August this year and using small £2 to £10 stakes.

I think my main issue is so how unpredictable the horses can be and at any point unless you are able to read the market well you can make a loss with a snap of your fingers. Maybe I still need time to build up to it and anticipate what may happen next as I think I am still not reading the markets that well.

But after Dallas and a few others here mentioning the stop loss would be pointless. I looked at Scalping the In-Play markets in the football (silly Question, but has any one made a good return on this). Possibly beginners luck here but I also think with what little experience I have had from reading the horse markets, the football markets move much, MUCH slower. So feels like I am actually getting my scalps right (can even let the trade run a few ticks until I scalp out).

Like with anything else I have read a bit online already about scalping the football markets as well as searched this forum and watched any you tube videos closely related to see how folk are doing it. But there does not seem to be much content out there. Is this because it is a total waste of time or is it a bit of a hidden secret?

I know the risk here is with a goal being scored then you are utterly goosed. but from trying in practise mode with small stakes. I found that if you are in and out of the market quick enough then the profits start to build up quickly. I tried on a international qualifier last night (Iran v Iraq of all teams) there was a fair bit of liquidity (not much) and both teams were attacking each other well from the stats. I found that the last 10 to 15 min of the game was moving really well liquidity wise that scalps were going in and out for 2 to 3 ticks each. would have made £10 back with using £10 stakes this was in just over 5 min.

Was this just total beginners luck. Have I possibly found something here.... have others done this before... how do you minimise losses here if you are mid scalp and goals are scored.

Think my next task is to do the same in a big game or a Premier League game to see how the market moves there, I would assume a bit more volatile and of course a higher liquidity?

should I just bin this and move back to the horses and preserver??

Thanks again

[Kai]

Like with anything else I have read a bit online already about scalping the football markets as well as searched this forum and watched any you tube videos closely related to see how folk are doing it. But there does not seem to be much content out there. Is this because it is a total waste of time or is it a bit of a hidden secret?

In my opinion every decent trader should have the ability to scalp most markets, for me it falls under the basic skill set of trading the order flow itself. In a nutshell it's basically just a little game of collecting ticks and managing risk without necessarily having much of an opinion about price direction, if any, so I see it as an extra weapon in a trader's arsenal that can both supplement a bigger edge by strengthening an open position or work as a standalone strategy (like on Cheltenham markets).

But no, I don't think you will find any real football scalping videos.

should I just bin this and move back to the horses and preserver??

Don't think anyone can really answer that for you, it does help to try a bit of everything at the very start in order to get some genuine experience under your belt, but at some point the decision has to be made where to delve deeper if you want to see genuine results. Usually people go with the decision that at that moment in time looks the most promising/profitable, but maybe that's the wrong way, perhaps it's better to go with markets and trading approaches that feel the most comfortable and suitable to your personality, lest you risk running into all kinds of (unnecessary) obstacles before you are properly equipped to deal with them effectively. But again, sooner or later a trader will have to deal with all of the fundamental psychological issues that naturally come with trading. You could definitely survive in the markets by avoiding some of these issues, but certainly not thrive. That is why I've said to forget about psychology, let it develop naturally and simply focus on obtaining an edge and on the execution itself.

[superfrank]

Football trading is dull by comparison and you'll soon be back to the nags!
Don't think that every successful trader sits there like an ice man. I must mutter loads of swear words during a trading session but almost invariably turn a profit.
Re books, Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas is the best I've read.
Cricket is worth a go. Some proper dough in there.
Good luck.