Been lurking here for almost couple of years and learning about trading at the same time.. what a journey!
I come from a poker background (couldn't mentally handle the brutal variance) which eventually led me to sports betting in general and thankfully it didn't take me too long to find trading. Learning about trading has been 'rough' but I've noticed that I definitely have a genuine passion for this which keeps me going. I've given up couple of times only to find myself coming back and trying to "crack the matrix" just one more time. I haven't lost any substantial money but it's been mentally really draining at times and it's most probably because of the way I've been trying to beat the markets, especially football markets.
My trading approach in footy has mostly been about developing strategies which involve trading multiple markets in the same game, trying to manage my risk (insurance for insurance + time decay being my friend and so on) as much as possible in hopes that one day I find some solid edges or maybe even the impossible 'holy grail'
I do realize that I could have probably made it much easier on myself by just keeping it simple but to be honest, it wasn't about the money in the beginning, it was more of an challenge to try and 'crack the matrix' by having this multi-market approach. I've traded hundreds upon hundreds of games manually my eyes glued to the screen watching how the odds move and react to certain scenarios and trying to understand how/if possible to make my approach actually work. It's been mentally really draining as I'm not gifted at maths and I've had 'a lot' of ideas come up which I've wanted to try so it's been a slooow progress to see if a certain approach would work and in which odd ranges and so on. I'm also a family man so I haven't been able to learn as much as I've wanted to.
Even though I've found a few strategies that might have a solid edge in them, they only work within certain odd ranges which are not very common to find pre-game. Therefore I'm not able to put enough volume in to see how well they actually work and since I'm using small stakes it's not that motivating to try and figure all of this out on my own which is one of the main reasons why I made this thread.. to ask from the wiser ones.
Do you think that trading multiple markets on the same football game can actually be a smart approach? I'm not talking about a 'simple' 2 market approach such as backing 0-0 and laying the draw for example. I'm talking about scenarios which might use 3-4 (or even more) markets which work as insurances for each other with time decay working in their favor/as an insurance also? Am I trying to do much? Are the markets really that efficient that they in itself take all of these market options and time decay into account and there's no solid edges to be found? Should I just keep it simple stupid? Could I be on to something? Does someone here has a similar kind of approach on their football trading? I also realize the sad truth that even if this multi-market approach could work with my 2% commission, premium charge would eventually most probably destroy this approach but like said, this approach is more of an challenge to me.
Hopefully you can make sense of all this rambling.
