Recent volatility of racing markets...

[sionascaig]

I haven't done a lot of trading on the horse markets over the last few months but coming back to it over the last two weeks there seems to be a lot more money coming into the markets with about 2 mins to go (with associated price swings), specifically it seems like a fundamentally different market.

Has anyone else noticed this or am I just imagining it?

(really need to get better at capturing market data!)

[Bear's The Name]

One thing I have noticed recently is that there seems to be a lot less money in theUK horse racing markets in general - even on big races on a Saturday. This is purely subjective, not based on any stats, just how it seems to me as I have rules that trigger on certain market volumes and they are triggering later and later - if at all.

I make the point as less money in the markets could lead to the increased volatility you are seeing. You see this all the time in dog races, US racing etc where there is no early market to speak of.

I could be completely wrong of course, it has been known...

[wearthefoxhat]

Yesterday, (bog standard Monday) it wasn't unusual for £500k-£600k to be matched in a race, more if there was a odds on shot.

Most activity was once the previous race finished, then the auto-bots and pro traders starting rolling their sleeves up.

Early betfair markets can still influence the market makers, but most will cross check with Odds-Checker as well. Quite a few still rely on the Racing Post betting forecast too.

[Euler]

There has been a tendency for a few years for the markets to get more volatile. The 2 minute market is curious as there is an increase in activity around this period, especially on the bigger races. It 'feels' like it's people hedging late on, but I've no evidence to back this up.

[sionascaig]

On a sample of 1:

Ling 15:00 : c£200,000k matched at 2mins to go, £420k matched at off (fav SP 2ish, 2nd fav 4ish)...

[ruthlessimon]

It's a really interesting point, because the swing I took the 15:00, wouldn't have worked last year - & I was forced to be very late with the entry

[Atho55]

This is my first attempt so not sure if it will work... EDIT, it did not

2nd Attempt

https://youtu.be/eTjWqgFAxIQ

Left hand rule is triggered by WOM conditions. Right hand rule is triggered by SV values. Trying to get my head round how the ladder works.

[Trading96]

Bookies follow exchange price and tack their margin on, people realised it doesn't cost that much to move the exchange market in relation to the amount you can bet across all the bookies.

[Andriy]

I always assumed this corresponds to the time when horses are going down to post/ arriving at post; at this point horses have been seen in the parade ring and going down to start (many want to see this, particularly if there are concerns relating to going, horses action etc); on course bookies then take the majority of their trade, and the reality nowadays is that the majority are not oldschool making a book, but will green up; hence money flowing back in. In summer with bigger crowds, decent money is flowing back well before the circa 2-3 minute point, but there's still that late surge. Winter racing, generally smaller crowds, most money comes back late. IMO YMMV etc.

[Euler]

It's more to do with when the previous race finishes and in the jumps season that is obviously later, so the money arrives later. But there is a noticeable spike at 2 minutes that haven't been there in years gone. Not sure when that arrived.

[jimibt]

It's more to do with when the previous race finishes and in the jumps season that is obviously later, so the money arrives later. But there is a noticeable spike at 2 minutes that haven't been there in years gone. Not sure when that arrived.

Cue a thousand new (BA) automation rules, armed at 150 seconds microscoping the top X runners

[wearthefoxhat]

It's more to do with when the previous race finishes and in the jumps season that is obviously later, so the money arrives later. But there is a noticeable spike at 2 minutes that haven't been there in years gone. Not sure when that arrived.

Cue a thousand new (BA) automation rules, armed at 150 seconds microscoping the top X runners

Already on it....