Hi is there a way i can automate a back bet at a set price say price 2.2 before the event goes in play and then apply the keep all command?
thanks
nick
pre off automation
Betfair will always match you at the best price, if the back price is currently greater than 2.2 you won't be able to place a bet at it and keep it or need to.
Instead, you'll have to set it to always be armed and trigger once the odds shorten
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=11621
Instead, you'll have to set it to always be armed and trigger once the odds shorten
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=11621
You can achive more in Excel but in recent updates that gap has closed considerably mainly thanks to the introduction of Stored Values and Signals to Guardians automation.
The downsides to excel are you need to be able to use VBA and macros and its slightly slower than Guardian automations.
I would always recommend Guardians automation unless there is a specfic task it can't achive and it needs to be done in excel.
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ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
You need to use a setup for more than a day to find out its true effect. Changing automation too often means you never get a true measure. I don't know how many selections a day you're trading with it but I can have consecutive losing days on a strategy that's longterm profitable, and I'm trading several hundered selections a day. 50, 100, 200 selections would probably be the absolute minimum to gauge effectiveness even on a strategy with a good return, and the lower the return the longer you need to assess it.
This is the main reason automated strategies take months to develop unless you get lucky and hit upon a clear winner on the first attempt.
This is the main reason automated strategies take months to develop unless you get lucky and hit upon a clear winner on the first attempt.
appreciate that Shaun, thanks.. my automation looks at every UK & Ireland racing market & has strictly speaking three sets rules within it, one for ‘x’ types of market, one for ‘y’ & one for ‘z’, & if nothing fits any of them it doesn’t fire, ‘x’ has been plugging away for around a week now & in the main has been profitable, ‘y’ & ‘z’ are really in their infancy & hasn’t really been “tested” as of yet, personally I have a gut feeling that ‘x’ will be in time the bread & butter of my trading, I can’t believe how much I’ve already put in to this in such a short space of time.
It has helped considerably recording, revising & studying the markets, watching them, pausing them then taking note of which, why, when & how has been basically how I’ve constructed the bot(s) whilst applying a bit of logic at the same time, if I can successfully do this trust me.. anyone can
It has helped considerably recording, revising & studying the markets, watching them, pausing them then taking note of which, why, when & how has been basically how I’ve constructed the bot(s) whilst applying a bit of logic at the same time, if I can successfully do this trust me.. anyone can
100% go along with this. I've often had weeks of decent results on a strategy, followed by a few bad days. those bad days (if your not careful) tend to make you forget that you've had a consistant run of winnning days.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:09 pmYou need to use a setup for more than a day to find out its true effect. Changing automation too often means you never get a true measure.
...........
This is the main reason automated strategies take months to develop unless you get lucky and hit upon a clear winner on the first attempt.
At the end of the piece, you need to compare the VALUE of the losing days vs the winnning days (i.e. does the losing day lose 10 times more than a winning day etc). If the losing day is fairly balanced with your winners, then you can either try to figure the reason for the losing days, or just plod on in the knowledge that you are very likely to hit a few losing days on the trot -all part of the fractal
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10472
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
'all part of the fractal'.... That is the killer which messes with your head. You can never be sure how zoomed in or zoomed out you are when you look at the results. That bad day might be a tiny dip in the longer term upwards trend, but that longer term upward trend you see might be just a small up on a generally down trend when looking at the even longer term trend. Iykwim.
I've looked into this stuff a LOT and it's incredibly difficult to work out when a trend is a +ve trend or just a positive section of a - ve trend. Even 'proper' quant traders have this issue and there isn't a definitive answer. It's an uncomfortable fact but the answer is down to experience and 'feel'. Up trends are obviously easy to deal with, but when they turn down it's a matter of personal comfort and the indefinable 'I don't like the look of this much'. Like all trading it's a good idea to get used to the idea that some of your gains will probably have to be returned at some point. Ideally you have some way to figure out what you should have made vs what you did make, but that's often incredibly hard to work out.
Tbh even when you find a killer strategy to automate it doesn't take much of a drop to make you doubt it, and then it recovers and you relax for a day..... And repeat ad infinitum. It's like the ups and downs a manual discretionary trader experiences, but in super slo-mo.
I've looked into this stuff a LOT and it's incredibly difficult to work out when a trend is a +ve trend or just a positive section of a - ve trend. Even 'proper' quant traders have this issue and there isn't a definitive answer. It's an uncomfortable fact but the answer is down to experience and 'feel'. Up trends are obviously easy to deal with, but when they turn down it's a matter of personal comfort and the indefinable 'I don't like the look of this much'. Like all trading it's a good idea to get used to the idea that some of your gains will probably have to be returned at some point. Ideally you have some way to figure out what you should have made vs what you did make, but that's often incredibly hard to work out.
Tbh even when you find a killer strategy to automate it doesn't take much of a drop to make you doubt it, and then it recovers and you relax for a day..... And repeat ad infinitum. It's like the ups and downs a manual discretionary trader experiences, but in super slo-mo.
yeah - i guess that's why there are so many TWEAKS done on a fortnightly basisShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:16 pm'all part of the fractal'.... That is the killer which messes with your head. You can never be sure how zoomed in or zoomed out you are when you look at the results. That bad day might be a tiny dip in the longer term upwards trend, but that longer term upward trend you see might be just a small up on a generally down trend when looking at the even longer term trend. Iykwim.
. right, where is that *control* rule!!
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10472
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Simon send me a link to a great interview with a quant a while ago....there's differences with it being a different industry, but a heck of a lot of parallels..
https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with- ... t-part-one
eg....
3. How do you determine if the model is dead or just having a bad time? Do you know of any useful predictive regime change filters?
This was the single most commonly asked question. And I’m afraid I’ll have to disappoint everyone: I don’t know the answer. I wish I did!
For me, I use a variety of rules of thumb. Statistical tests to make sure the meta-characteristics of the model remain intact. Anecdotal evidence of capital entering or leaving the market. Other people’s positions and pain. Price action: is it nervous and choppy, or dull and arbed out? And so on.
I’ve yet to find a reliable, universal, predictive (or even contemporaneous) indicator of regime change/model death. Sad, but true.
4. Model deaths seem to last a period of years then come back better than ever sometimes. Do you keep tracking “dead” models and will you bring them back after a “revival”?
Absolutely, and this is a great point. Models do come back from the dead. US T-note futures versus cash is a classic example: it cycled between “easy money”, “completely arbitraged out”, and “blowup central” three times in my trading career. Same science in each case; all that changed was the market’s risk appetite. So I never say goodbye to a model forever; I have a huge back catalogue of ideas whose time may come again.
.
.
.
.
16.Do you have advice for someone who just started as a quant at a systematic hedge fund? How do I become really good at this? What differentiates the ones who succeed from those who do not?
In a nutshell: intellectual discipline. By which I mean a combination of procedural rigor, lack of self-deception, and humility in the face of data.
Quants tend to get enamoured of their models and stick to them at all costs. The intellectual satisfaction of a beautiful model or technology is seductive. It’s even worse if the model is successful: in addition to emotional attachment, you have to contend with hubris. Then one day it all comes crashing down around you.
https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with- ... t-part-one
eg....
3. How do you determine if the model is dead or just having a bad time? Do you know of any useful predictive regime change filters?
This was the single most commonly asked question. And I’m afraid I’ll have to disappoint everyone: I don’t know the answer. I wish I did!
For me, I use a variety of rules of thumb. Statistical tests to make sure the meta-characteristics of the model remain intact. Anecdotal evidence of capital entering or leaving the market. Other people’s positions and pain. Price action: is it nervous and choppy, or dull and arbed out? And so on.
I’ve yet to find a reliable, universal, predictive (or even contemporaneous) indicator of regime change/model death. Sad, but true.
4. Model deaths seem to last a period of years then come back better than ever sometimes. Do you keep tracking “dead” models and will you bring them back after a “revival”?
Absolutely, and this is a great point. Models do come back from the dead. US T-note futures versus cash is a classic example: it cycled between “easy money”, “completely arbitraged out”, and “blowup central” three times in my trading career. Same science in each case; all that changed was the market’s risk appetite. So I never say goodbye to a model forever; I have a huge back catalogue of ideas whose time may come again.
.
.
.
.
16.Do you have advice for someone who just started as a quant at a systematic hedge fund? How do I become really good at this? What differentiates the ones who succeed from those who do not?
In a nutshell: intellectual discipline. By which I mean a combination of procedural rigor, lack of self-deception, and humility in the face of data.
Quants tend to get enamoured of their models and stick to them at all costs. The intellectual satisfaction of a beautiful model or technology is seductive. It’s even worse if the model is successful: in addition to emotional attachment, you have to contend with hubris. Then one day it all comes crashing down around you.