80k on Leicester to win title@800/1, 2m cash out

[alonzoharris]

Hi guys, just saw someone bet £80k on Leicester to win title @800/1 and now at 20/1. Can cash out for just over £2 million. Can you actually get the liquidity you cash out?(betdaq) and should you cash out?

[Derek27]

Depends on the size of your bank and judgement on what price they're worth.

[Jukebox]

Bet placed (not me)@800/1 for 80k, Should you cash out?? £2 million profit or hold your position?

That's a 64 million dollar question - at a poor exchange rate!

[MemphisFlash]

they would never be 800/1 at this stage. the bookies were bitten once, wouldn't be again

[Kafkaesque]

they would never be 800/1 at this stage. the bookies were bitten once, wouldn't be again

Not "at this stage" but at the start of the season, hence the cash out question.

Even at the start 800/1 seems like a huge price. I would have thought they'd have been anywhere from 200 to 400, maybe a bit bigger, but someone taking 80k at 800/1 seems well the mark off.

[ShaunWhite]

Who's offered 80k @ 800? £64,000,000 of risk seems ridiculous.

[Jukebox]

and if you had £64M why would you tie it up for so long for a mere £80k

[Derek27]

Is this the exchange or a bet with a bookie?

[ShaunWhite]

Where's this number coming from OP? Exchange has 138quid traded at 800.

[Kai]

I think people misunderstood OP here since his question was poorly worded. Think he wants to say that somebody on Betdaq (link to the market here) matched 80k on Leicester to win the league at the price of 800, and he's asking what would be the best move now hypothetically if that were a back swing trade on Leicester.

My answer would be to at least clear the red and make it a free bet, but probably take a bit of profit that you're happy with in case the bet fails, and leave a nice jackpot in case Leicester does win it again.

That being said, saw some xG data recently that suggested that Leicester massively overperformed thus far points-wise, especially Vardy who scored a lot of goals that he shouldn't have scored according to his personal xG numbers. Rodgers is obviously getting the best out of him but I don't think they can maintain this consistency for the rest of the season so I think the numbers will revert to mean at some point.

[alonzoharris]

I think people misunderstood OP here since his question was poorly worded. Think he wants to say that somebody on Betdaq (link to the market here) matched 80k on Leicester to win the league at the price of 800, and he's asking what would be the best move now hypothetically if that were a back swing trade on Leicester.

My answer would be to at least clear the red and make it a free bet, but probably take a bit of profit that you're happy with in case the bet fails, and leave a nice jackpot in case Leicester does win it again.

That being said, saw some xG data recently that suggested that Leicester massively overperformed thus far points-wise, especially Vardy who scored a lot of goals that he shouldn't have scored according to his personal xG numbers. Rodgers is obviously getting the best out of him but I don't think they can maintain this consistency for the rest of the season so I think the numbers will revert to mean at some point.

Yes poorly worded, can he get out tho? So far liquidity is dry

[Kai]

I think people misunderstood OP here since his question was poorly worded. Think he wants to say that somebody on Betdaq (link to the market here) matched 80k on Leicester to win the league at the price of 800, and he's asking what would be the best move now hypothetically if that were a back swing trade on Leicester.

My answer would be to at least clear the red and make it a free bet, but probably take a bit of profit that you're happy with in case the bet fails, and leave a nice jackpot in case Leicester does win it again.

That being said, saw some xG data recently that suggested that Leicester massively overperformed thus far points-wise, especially Vardy who scored a lot of goals that he shouldn't have scored according to his personal xG numbers. Rodgers is obviously getting the best out of him but I don't think they can maintain this consistency for the rest of the season so I think the numbers will revert to mean at some point.

Yes poorly worded, can he get out tho? So far liquidity is dry

Probably not at the current price, he would have to push the price out to get larger amounts matched. But the bet looks fishy to me.

[Derek27]

Less than £100 available - Leicester would have to go closer before he could get decent lays in. But I struggle to understand how £80K could ever have been available at 800.

[Kai]

Less than £100 available - Leicester would have to go closer before he could get decent lays in. But I struggle to understand how £80K could ever have been available at 800.

Doesn't look genuine, maybe selfmatching by Betdaq or money laundering, idk.

[Kafkaesque]

That being said, saw some xG data recently that suggested that Leicester massively overperformed thus far points-wise, especially Vardy who scored a lot of goals that he shouldn't have scored according to his personal xG numbers. Rodgers is obviously getting the best out of him but I don't think they can maintain this consistency for the rest of the season so I think the numbers will revert to mean at some point.

xG have been improved since then, and only Vardy and Schmeichel are pretty much left, but Leicester ran insanely above xG all season during THAT season. It kept being a case of, surely it cannot continue. It did all the same.

I'm a big fan xG as a guideline metric, but I wouldn't rule out that there's something about Vardy that it cannot account for, especially when he goes on one of those steamers, where he's just pure confidence. Maybe even in the way, he brings second wave attackers into the game. In many ways he's, as a type, unconventional and different to what most of the xG data is built on.

Less than £100 available - Leicester would have to go closer before he could get decent lays in. But I struggle to understand how £80K could ever have been available at 800.

Doesn't look genuine, maybe selfmatching by Betdaq or money laundering, idk.

Looks a completely dodgy market. 80k exactly on Wolves. 20k exactly matched on Watford at 1000 (as the only thing at all matched on them). Other big, exact, and round numbers at huge prices on other rank outsiders.

Dodgy or someone with a seriously pretty penny to burn.