Liquidity in pre-race markets

[kamil2402]

Hi everyone! I am relatively new to this fascinating world of sports trading...and one question I have is regarding liquidity in the pre-race markets (horse racing). I have read several forums where people have been complaining about low liquidity.

My question is, is this true, and if so will liquidity ultimately dry up completely? Or alternatively, are there signs of liquidity in horse racing picking up? Many thanks for all your replies!

[kamil2402]

Just to add, I know liquidity in the winter period is lower...however I am refferring to a longer term decline, i.e. over the period of a few years. And the ultimate question is, what does the future in term sof liquidity and the exchange hold?

[napshnap]

If we are talking about UK and IRE horseracing markets - there is no picking up, markets constantly year after year dry up .

(stats only for september)

2016(liquidity pike) / 2017 = 10% drop
2016/2018 = 24% drop
2016/2019 = 30% drop

[kamil2402]

from Sept 2016 to Sept 2019 the overall liquidity was down 30% on horse racing? That is huge. Will it soon not even be worth trading horse racing? And more broadly will the exchange be dead in a few years? If this trend continues, it won't take long I reckon. But please say I am wrong lol.

[Kai]

And more broadly will the exchange be dead in a few years? If this trend continues, it won't take long I reckon. But please say I am wrong lol.

After going through all of the data I give it another year, at the most.

[napshnap]

from Sept 2016 to Sept 2019 the overall liquidity was down 30% on horse racing? That is huge. Will it soon not even be worth trading horse racing? And more broadly will the exchange be dead in a few years? If this trend continues, it won't take long I reckon. But please say I am wrong lol.

Not "FROM Sept 2016 TO Sept 2019", only one month from each year, if we'll take the whole year it's gonna be 26% drop for UK and 24% drop for IRE (2016/2019).

[kamil2402]

thanks for all your insight, a truly worrying picture...are any other sports doing OK or is this happening across the entire specturm?

[napshnap]

thanks for all your insight, a truly worrying picture...are any other sports doing OK or is this happening across the entire specturm?

I heard cricket doing ok, but I don't have stats.

[kamil2402]

If anyone could share the stats they have on horse racing with me, that would be hugely appreciated and thank you gents for the great insight.

[ODPaul82]

This is what my access DB gives me going back to 2008
2019 is up until about 2-3 weeks ago.

First set of figures pre-off. Second set In-Play
Just for GB & Ire horses.

Yr SumOfppTradedVol
2008 £1,969,059,561.35
2009 £7,164,833,706.27
2010 £6,461,741,891.93
2011 £6,875,267,018.95
2012 £7,104,998,434.95
2013 £6,867,382,985.33
2014 £7,186,816,798.90
2015 £7,242,458,678.00
2016 £7,356,944,516.68
2017 £7,122,629,002.29
2018 £6,204,386,185.38
2019 £5,308,592,907.71


Yr SumOfipTradedVol
2008 £598,586,507.01
2009 £2,070,707,650.25
2010 £2,227,448,623.16
2011 £2,523,154,436.87
2012 £2,283,372,885.41
2013 £2,187,143,414.06
2014 £2,221,105,475.60
2015 £2,195,166,708.09
2016 £2,316,347,507.75
2017 £2,353,529,964.33
2018 £2,160,203,783.91
2019 £1,752,970,884.10

[kamil2402]

great stats really appreciated! does anyone have any idea what made the pre race volume take such a massive hit from 2017 onwards? I wasn't active on Betfair back then but would be interesting to find out

[Derek27]

Anyone know when the higher rate premium charge was introduced? Doesn't seem to have had much impact on liquidity.

[Euler]

Growth on the exchange stalled almost immediately the higher rate PC came in. Despite it affecting only a small number of people.

[Euler]

I've got some like for like numbers, but they don't look as steep a fall as these. Not sure what that data captures, but it may be capturing other data as well?

[Euler]

Betfair's own data shows the entire exchange stalling after the introduction of the higher rate PC.