General Election 2019 (UK)

[superfrank]

Frank, maybe you need to get yourself an English O level before looking for your alternative sources of info. And if you consider Godfrey's comments about " bongo bongo land" etc entertaining so be it , not really my genre of entertainment.

I've got two English O Levels (Language and Literature).

I don't recall the bongo comments, but I suspect that, like me, he uses a little flowery language at times to wind lefties who get outraged over everything and nothing.

[dragontrades]

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpoli ... -pendulum/

[Euler]

That's interesting because it's about voter psychology, the tiredness of an argument. It's also on topic!

I'm currently ploughing through data from previous elections to try and piece together how the market reacts.

It seems it's really the exit poll that shifts the market. Prior to that, not much happens.

[dragontrades]

Labour shortening on most seats market whilst con majority shortens. ??????

[Euler]

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpoli ... -pendulum/

The only thing I'd say about this model is it feels very backfitted. Not sure how applicable it can be?

[Jukebox]

Labour shortening on most seats market whilst con majority shortens. ??????

So many markets not in tune with one another all sorts of peculiar mix 'n' match available:
UK General Election - Next Government/Con majority L1.34
UK General Election - Size of Con Majority/No Overall Majority B2.46

[dragontrades]

gonna need a sizable polling error
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/stat ... 8239771648

[Jukebox]

I was pointing out the arb opportunity

[Naffman]

1.25 this morning - these voting intentions obviously having a big affect

[Naffman]

IMO labour vote percentage could easily get below 30% - that will be my only play I think

[sionascaig]

I remember that in the past (but not last election) the polls tended to under estimate the conservative vote by around 5% - there has been quite a bit of chat about why this is the case (basically something to do with being reluctant to engage with pollster from that section of the population)...

Looking forward to a good nights entertainment !

5% or 6% swing to get rid of Boris - that would make staying up all night worth it though )

[ShaunWhite]

The next GE will be the interesting one. Areas neglected by the Tories will still be neglected and Brexit won't have brought them the promised land of milk and honey. Who are they going to blame then? The EU bogeyman will be history and the real reason for hardship and regional disparity will become obvious.

[firlandsfarm]

And the bribes touted by Labour will still be bribes. It's good for Labour not to win because then their false promises and bribery will never be factually uncovered.

[Euler]

This could swing it. Maybe funded by a tax on people with more than one, or borrowing an extra few billion.

kittens.jpeg

[Euler]

The next GE will be the interesting one. Areas neglected by the Tories will still be neglected and Brexit won't have brought them the promised land of milk and honey. Who are they going to blame then? The EU bogeyman will be history and the real reason for hardship and regional disparity will become obvious.

Everybody blames everybody else. If Labour did win and trashed the economy it would be the years of neglect of the previous party that caused it.

I do think there must be a better way to keep moving forward than swing from one ideology than another. After all, it is 2020, not 1820. I can't help but think all this money that is being pumped into using AI to push adverts to us could be used for better purposes?