Very interested in achieving the following..

[wearthefoxhat]

Once upon a time when I was very naive I followed the backing system of backing the favourite to win £50. (The reverse of the laying system above) . Wow!! All was well for a month or so but one day my last bet of the day was £11,000 to get back the losses and win £50. My wife of the time didn't know about this.. The sweat was literally pouring down my face as the last one Did come in by a neck..

The lay system would soon get to MASSIVE stakes after 4 or 5 favourites won their races (and you lost your lay bets).

Never again I vowed and I have stuck to that. Gambling is a hobby that you need to enjoy and control. Trading is the way to go if you want to try and make a consistent income.

All betting systems become unsustainable at some point. If one actually worked why wouldn't you just keep it to yourself and work it to death!? I certainly wouldn't be bragging about the holy grail if I found it. That would be like sharing a jackpot lottery ticket with strangers. Likely? No!

Were you the Mad Bomber?

If not there are some out there that continue to use something similar. I vaguely recall a system called The Favourites Phenomenon (about 5-6 years ago). Essentially it suggested exactly what you posted, with a few tweaks. Coincidentally, Betfair's liquidity was solid back then, so I can only imagine a lot of traders made money.

[Xeres]

I want to achieve the following.
1)Lay a favorite with a target price.
2)If the bet succeedes do the same thing at the next event. If it fails lay again the fav but with double stake. If it failes again lay again with double until I achieve a win. And then I start over.

How do I achieve this?
Please elaborate as much as you can I am new with excel hehe...

I know lots has been said on this but thought I would share my own experience of this kind of thing.

I created a model to predict horse races and it was pretty good but I was greedy and I came up with a loss recovery system where I tried to recover the lost stake on the next race - so not quite the martingale which I know leads to an empty bank account.

I back tested this on 10k races and it looked like it would make me an easy £3k or more a month on small stakes and it was all automated so easy money.

I have a prediction for every race and my strike rate was around 30%, I didn't care about value since all I wanted was a win to recover any losses.

When I tried this for real it started off working well but I soon ran into trouble and it cost me a lot of money. I went through a very strange turn of events and even though I was only using £2 stakes it quickly went up to £500 because the odds were so low on one of the horses. Something went wrong and my bet didn't get matched, the horse I was supposed to back won so my losses carried over to the next race - which lost. I was now in deep water with the stakes being more than I was prepared to risk. I know some people don't mind putting £1k on a horse to win but it was too much for me. I was trying to think of a way out, maybe I can ducth them, I usually win every other race but again, the stakes were just crazy and my profit would only be small since all I am winning are my losses.

I've seen sites offering dutch recovery systems but unless you have huge pockets and a very strong stomach they will not work.

[eightbo]

What's the point in having a "system" which recovers your losses 9/10 times if the 10th time it loses 10x as much as the profits you gained the 9/10 other times? You can change the numbers to anything you like the concept is pointless when trades/events/markets are independent of one another.

[TipTopTrader]

I want to achieve the following.
1)Lay a favorite with a target price.
2)If the bet succeedes do the same thing at the next event. If it fails lay again the fav but with double stake. If it failes again lay again with double until I achieve a win. And then I start over.

How do I achieve this?
Please elaborate as much as you can I am new with excel hehe...

I know lots has been said on this but thought I would share my own experience of this kind of thing.

I created a model to predict horse races and it was pretty good but I was greedy and I came up with a loss recovery system where I tried to recover the lost stake on the next race - so not quite the martingale which I know leads to an empty bank account.

I back tested this on 10k races and it looked like it would make me an easy £3k or more a month on small stakes and it was all automated so easy money.

I have a prediction for every race and my strike rate was around 30%, I didn't care about value since all I wanted was a win to recover any losses.

When I tried this for real it started off working well but I soon ran into trouble and it cost me a lot of money. I went through a very strange turn of events and even though I was only using £2 stakes it quickly went up to £500 because the odds were so low on one of the horses. Something went wrong and my bet didn't get matched, the horse I was supposed to back won so my losses carried over to the next race - which lost. I was now in deep water with the stakes being more than I was prepared to risk. I know some people don't mind putting £1k on a horse to win but it was too much for me. I was trying to think of a way out, maybe I can ducth them, I usually win every other race but again, the stakes were just crazy and my profit would only be small since all I am winning are my losses.

I've seen sites offering dutch recovery systems but unless you have huge pockets and a very strong stomach they will not work.

Heres a link to a betting show podcast on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCheYAz ... kjbnZ9sXcA

Its called the Business of betting. The common theme in nearly every podcast is about being price sensitive and protecting the bank.

They have guests that do predictive models and they all go on about price as well.

Its not the dutch betting you need to work on its getting them at the top of their ranges.

If you hit 50% winners and the average price of the dutch is 1.8 Starting price, but if you shop for a better price and can average 2.2 with the same selections.

You have turned a losing strategy into a winning one by getting the best PRICE!!!

Goodluck with it all.

[Xeres]

Heres a link to a betting show podcast on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCheYAz ... kjbnZ9sXcA

Its called the Business of betting. The common theme in nearly every podcast is about being price sensitive and protecting the bank.

They have guests that do predictive models and they all go on about price as well.

Its not the dutch betting you need to work on its getting them at the top of their ranges.

If you hit 50% winners and the average price of the dutch is 1.8 Starting price, but if you shop for a better price and can average 2.2 with the same selections.

You have turned a losing strategy into a winning one by getting the best PRICE!!!

Goodluck with it all.

I was just trying to illustrate that I have tried loss recovery systems myself and while they can work, they can be very difficult to execute in reality.

The key to making money on gambling is finding value, there can be value at 1.8 but it will likely be very small and if you're using exchanges then you need to calculate the true odds.

My actual betting strategy is based on value bets alone but when I was trying to recover losses I wanted the highest strike rate irrespective of value.

[TipTopTrader]

Oh Ok.

In my experience a loss recovery strategy is just a attempt to turn a losing strategy into a winning one.

Why would someone need to have the stomach or deep pockets if the strategy was making a profit.

Why not just increase the amount as the profits grow's.

I didnt say there was no value in a 1.80.I said if you have a 50% strike rate and average dutch price of 1.80 but could improve it to 2.2 by getting better average prices.

[GaryCook]

Martingale.
Trust me. When you have hundreds or thousands riding on the next result you won't care what happened to the previous ones.
Plus, why double down on something that lost.

I've modelled millions of tests with Martingale. None worked.

I did make 10 grand once but it was pure luck and I had more chance of losing by far.
Hence why I went to the trouble to do so much testing after.
Glad I did as I never went back there.

Even a working strategy will be made less profitable with Martingale.

It's that foolhardy.