Blew over half my bank last weekend - need advice!

[Alexander_99]

Yeah while all these stats sites can be very useful, I find watching the match an indispensable tool. What I found is that by watching the match I can spot certain subtle play patterns, player movements, etc that can highlight which team has slight superiority over another one. Relying just on stats can be misleading.

Talking about late goals. There was a guy called Mel The Scientia Trader here who posted about his profits. Seems like he got a lot of stick from other members here and disappeared... Some people on here just assumed his strategy failed, however he was posting regularly on twitter for over a year afterwards, till August 2019. No posts from him since.

Reading through his twitter, looks like his strategy was centered around betting on late goals. What's stunning is that he claimed betting on "overs" goals with 2.8 odds average, and he claimed his success rate is around 50-60%, which would mean he would have about 20% edge. That's huge. This would also imply that his match selection would have to be highly, highly refined in order to have such a success rate.

Disregarding all his pseudo-scientific jargon borrowed from finance, that really has no place in sports markets, do you think he was genuine?

What would be interesting to know is the number of bets he placed / tested. He wrote that he only trades a very small number of matches each day. I suppose one needs to tested this strategy on thousands of matches in order to verify if it's actually profitable. The fact that he suddenly stopped updating on twitter is suspicious. Did he hit a very long run of losses and never recovered?

[rostov]

......Disregarding all his pseudo-scientific jargon borrowed from finance, that really has no place in sports markets, do you think he was genuine?...........

Someone claims to have a consistent success rate of 50-60% for
overs bets with a win probability of 35.7%.

Is he genuine or a narcissistic gobshite?

Mmmmm, that's a tricky one.

[Alexander_99]

......Disregarding all his pseudo-scientific jargon borrowed from finance, that really has no place in sports markets, do you think he was genuine?...........

Someone claims to have a consistent success rate of 50-60% for
overs bets with a win probability of 35.7%.

Is he genuine or a narcissistic gobshite?

Mmmmm, that's a tricky one.

The point is that he obviously didn't take every trade on offer with probability 35.7%, but only some of them which satisfied his selection process, whatever it is - so while 50-60% rate seems very unlikely, it could still be true. That's why I wrote my next question, what was his sample size?

[rostov]

[/quote]

The point is that he obviously didn't take every trade on offer with probability 35.7%, but only some of them which satisfied his selection process, whatever it is - so while 50-60% rate seems very unlikely, it could still be true. That's why I wrote my next question, what was his sample size?
[/quote]

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=16191

[Alexander_99]

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=16191

But he has continued posting on twitter for over a year after that thread, so in the end his sample size would have been much larger. This begs the question, why did he suddenly stop posting results?

[Kai]

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=16191

But he has continued posting on twitter for over a year after that thread, so in the end his sample size would have been much larger. This begs the question, why did he suddenly stop posting results?

Not a big fan of the scientology nonsense, but I guess he either found a way to scale his profit from Oostende Reserves markets and retired on a private island with no internet connection, or he just went bust and gave up.

[rostov]

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=16191

But he has continued posting on twitter for over a year after that thread, so in the end his sample size would have been much larger. This begs the question, why did he suddenly stop posting results?

Not a big fan of the scientology nonsense, but I guess he either found a way to scale his profit from Oostende Reserves markets and retired on a private island with no internet connection, or he just went bust and gave up.

Or perhaps the layers who had been offering 20% over the odds went to live at the bottom of the garden with the fairies.

[spreadbetting]

He's been around for ages, in 2016 he was touting himself as in the top 5% of retail traders. Always looking for backers, guess he realised there are more mug punters in gambling than financials to catch.

My name is Mel Fearon and this is my website devoted to explaining the journey of how through a 5 year period I have reached the stage where I am able to make significant monthly returns on my trading account bank of £10,000. This means I am literally now able to make anything above £10,000 per month and this will increase as my account size grows. Navigating through 5 years of chasing my tail, and digesting the good, the bad and the ugly in terms of trading advice, I have reached the stage where I am moving into the top 5% of retail traders in the UK. Welcome to my journey.

https://web.archive.org/web/20161206023 ... ading.com/

[Alexander_99]

Had a decent trading session today. Found some value odds and made a profit overall.

Watched 2nd half of Tottenham match. Saw an open game and decided to lay Tottenham at 1.01, for £50 stake (liability pathetic £0.50), on 79 min. Also backed over 2.5 goals at 2.54, although with a lower stake than normal (around 1.5% liability of my bank) . If I had more balls, I would have laid Tottenham for £500 stake. (I still chicken out of fully committing to trades when I see value - I must eradicate this tendency). Backed Tottenham with £10 stake at 1.11 when it went 2-1, leaving the rest of the lay stake to run.

In Las Palmas vs Zaragoza, I thought over 0.5 market at 2.10 odds on 70 mins was an absolute steal given the action on the pitch. Saw huge value in these odds. Used 2% liability for this trade. The goal came on 83rd min.

Also successfully predicted 0-0 draw when watching Fenerbahce match in the Turkish cup. Although I thought under 0.5 market had value, I didn't have the guts to back it. Would have made me too nervous to watch the match and hope a goal doesn't fly in. Incidentally, the "over 0.5" odds were as low as 3.6 on 86 min - ridiculously poor price for a game that quiet.

Traded some other games too.

Anyone care to comment on my trade for the Tottenham game?

[wearthefoxhat]

Had a decent trading session today. Found some value odds and made a profit overall.

Watched 2nd half of Tottenham match. Saw an open game and decided to lay Tottenham at 1.01, for £50 stake (liability pathetic £0.50), on 79 min. Also backed over 2.5 goals at 2.54, although with a lower stake than normal (around 1.5% liability of my bank) . If I had more balls, I would have laid Tottenham for £500 stake. (I still chicken out of fully committing to trades when I see value - I must eradicate this tendency). Backed Tottenham with £10 stake at 1.11 when it went 2-1, leaving the rest of the lay stake to run.

In Las Palmas vs Zaragoza, I thought over 0.5 market at 2.10 odds on 70 mins was an absolute steal given the action on the pitch. Saw huge value in these odds. Used 2% liability for this trade. The goal came on 83rd min.

Also successfully predicted 0-0 draw when watching Fenerbahce match in the Turkish cup. Although I thought under 0.5 market had value, I didn't have the guts to back it. Would have made me too nervous to watch the match and hope a goal doesn't fly in. Incidentally, the "over 0.5" odds were as low as 3.6 on 86 min - ridiculously poor price for a game that quiet.

Traded some other games too.

Anyone care to comment on my trade for the Tottenham game?

Good spot with the Spurs trade.

Both the attack/Moment and 2nd half stats supported the entry position.

AttMoM.GIF

I think someone said avoid F.O.M.O. where possible. Yes, you could have smashed the other trade, but getting the right balance on staking is more important.

SOT.GIF

[Alexander_99]

Thanks foxhat.