But that's the $64,000 mystery!wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:22 amThere are only certain games that fit the qualifying criteria.
Mike Cruickshank's "Momentum system"
- firlandsfarm
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Well. the £249 mysteryfirlandsfarm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:50 amBut that's the $64,000 mystery!wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:22 amThere are only certain games that fit the qualifying criteria.
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So you are prepared to pay me $64.000 if i reveal what the criterias are ?firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:50 amBut that's the $64,000 mystery!wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:22 amThere are only certain games that fit the qualifying criteria.
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ilovepizza82 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:06 pmSo you are prepared to pay me $64.000 if i reveal what the criterias are ?
Hi sniffer. Can I ask, how long did it take for you to get restricted? And how much were you putting on. A couple of quid per race or tens? Trying to understand potential ROI vs lifetime of system. Cheers.sniffer66 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:13 amfirlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:37 amMike has been around for many years and promotes mathematical based products. They are not 'tips' in the true sense of the word, they are systems. One of his looks to take advantage of bookmaker each-way prices/terms that give the punter an advantage because of the artificial way the place price is calculated. He openly tells you that the bookie will close/reduce your account. Another is to take advantage of early morning BOG prices and back the full book where the overround is small. You are guaranteed a winner by backing all, some you will make a small loss because of the overround but others you can make a reasonable profit because of BOG. Again he openly tells you that the bookie will close/reduce your account. With another he looked to exploit the bookmakers' acca refund policies by mirror laying on Betfair. I've not looked at the Momentum system but have been interested in the discussion here.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:05 pmJesus that Mike dude is selling over 15 different systems on his website.
I was going to post a similar response. There are a few sites around that offer similar. Each Way value betting does work but you will get stake restricted. I have, though after decent profits
I'm sure people could work it out for themselves. But you'd need knowledge of web scraping and programming because it wouldn't be worth your while sitting there and doing this manually.Kai wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:49 pmDidn't the guy practically reveal everything in his preview video?
I'm pretty sure people on here could work out the prices and the staking if they wanted to without buying his stuff. My math is usually terrible and haven't seen his full 1 hour video but it sounds to me like he found a small (5% profit on your stakes iirc?) market inefficiency in those three scorelines in some matches, much like the infamous Slicer supposedly did? His match selection seems purely mathematical and the only edge here seems to be this small market inefficiency. No idea how old his system is but any market inefficiency should be corrected over time, which is very evident in his marketing scheme (he offered the system for 250 pounds for the first year and 40 pounds for the following years ).
The whole strategy concept is just to play the 0-0 against one of the other scorelines which cancel each other out soon as the first goal flies in, and then you're supposedly left with a profit on the remaining 3rd scoreline. But the main and only idea here is to exploit this price inefficiency and securing a very small profit, although apparently completely risk free which shouldn't happen in an efficient market. Typical arbers approach strategy?
When I was testing out my various ideas on inplay footy I too found some market inefficiencies but they weren't present prematch like this guy is claiming, they were created during the match in certain situations and were only temporary (I guess different pace of decay), so never bothered to pursuit it further.
As for inefficiencies... Well yes. Correct score markets lag full time markets. The system allows you to capture that lag. That's where the profit is. This is practically impossible to do without a mechanism by which that lag is captured in one interface, hence the value in selling the systen. I doubt you can get rich with this because liquidity in correct score markets will not let you place £1000s on many trades. But I don't see why somebody with a £20k bank can't make a couple hundred a week with it by placing tens of trades in that timeframe tbh.
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I do see why somebody cant...
The software very rarely shows any potential trades (if any)
Been using it for apprx.4 days now and not a single trade.
it's called *defensive trading* - you've saved a fortune over 4 days -lolilovepizza82 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:44 pmI do see why somebody cant...
The software very rarely shows any potential trades (if any)
Been using it for apprx.4 days now and not a single trade.
Isnt value better still match betting just without taking the bonuses from the bookies?sniffer66 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:58 pmIt depends how much you need to keep your bookie accounts unrestricted on the stake front. I gave up on matched betting once the big bonuses dried up - was too much work for too little return. However, I've pulled in a few grand each way value betting, taking the stake restrictions as part of the risk. If you want to build a risk free bank to practice real money trading with, and aren't particularly flush, then it's not a bad way to start off a trading bank - at least you aren't throwing your own money away whilst you attempt to get profitable trading.Kai wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:06 pmI too have heard his name before, it's hard to forget such a unique last name. But you're right, there's not much opportunity and money in looking for small inefficiencies in bookie and exchange prices in general, and when there is by some miracle it probably can't last for very long for obvious reasons. It's practically picking up pennies in front of a steamroller which I don't think Mike is interested in doing himself, so arguably the only real opportunity for people like that is by packaging this into marketable products, hence the 15 different systems that Archery mentioned earlier.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:37 am
Mike has been around for many years and promotes mathematical based products. They are not 'tips' in the true sense of the word, they are systems. One of his looks to take advantage of bookmaker each-way prices/terms that give the punter an advantage because of the artificial way the place price is calculated. He openly tells you that the bookie will close/reduce your account. Another is to take advantage of early morning BOG prices and back the full book where the overround is small. You are guaranteed a winner by backing all, some you will make a small loss because of the overround but others you can make a reasonable profit because of BOG. Again he openly tells you that the bookie will close/reduce your account. With another he looked to exploit the bookmakers' acca refund policies by mirror laying on Betfair. I've not looked at the Momentum system but have been interested in the discussion here.
The qustion I ask is, if it wasn't profitable for the punter why would the bookies restrict you ?
Would imagine we would still get gubbed eventually.
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jimibt wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:45 pmit's called *defensive trading* - you've saved a fortune over 4 days -lolilovepizza82 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:44 pmI do see why somebody cant...
The software very rarely shows any potential trades (if any)
Been using it for apprx.4 days now and not a single trade.
About a month, though I'm still not restricted on a few of the bigger ones. I took a couple of grand out with a max of £1.50 (£3 total) each way over that time. Like I said, matched betting and value betting aren't a bad way to build a free bank to test your trading with, but it's not viable returns in the long term as the bookies will spot you value betting quickly and shut you downPackmoose wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:34 pmHi sniffer. Can I ask, how long did it take for you to get restricted? And how much were you putting on. A couple of quid per race or tens? Trying to understand potential ROI vs lifetime of system. Cheers.sniffer66 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:13 amfirlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:37 am
Mike has been around for many years and promotes mathematical based products. They are not 'tips' in the true sense of the word, they are systems. One of his looks to take advantage of bookmaker each-way prices/terms that give the punter an advantage because of the artificial way the place price is calculated. He openly tells you that the bookie will close/reduce your account. Another is to take advantage of early morning BOG prices and back the full book where the overround is small. You are guaranteed a winner by backing all, some you will make a small loss because of the overround but others you can make a reasonable profit because of BOG. Again he openly tells you that the bookie will close/reduce your account. With another he looked to exploit the bookmakers' acca refund policies by mirror laying on Betfair. I've not looked at the Momentum system but have been interested in the discussion here.
I was going to post a similar response. There are a few sites around that offer similar. Each Way value betting does work but you will get stake restricted. I have, though after decent profits
GaryCook wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:00 pmIsnt value better still match betting just without taking the bonuses from the bookies?sniffer66 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:58 pmIt depends how much you need to keep your bookie accounts unrestricted on the stake front. I gave up on matched betting once the big bonuses dried up - was too much work for too little return. However, I've pulled in a few grand each way value betting, taking the stake restrictions as part of the risk. If you want to build a risk free bank to practice real money trading with, and aren't particularly flush, then it's not a bad way to start off a trading bank - at least you aren't throwing your own money away whilst you attempt to get profitable trading.Kai wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:06 pm
I too have heard his name before, it's hard to forget such a unique last name. But you're right, there's not much opportunity and money in looking for small inefficiencies in bookie and exchange prices in general, and when there is by some miracle it probably can't last for very long for obvious reasons. It's practically picking up pennies in front of a steamroller which I don't think Mike is interested in doing himself, so arguably the only real opportunity for people like that is by packaging this into marketable products, hence the 15 different systems that Archery mentioned earlier.
The qustion I ask is, if it wasn't profitable for the punter why would the bookies restrict you ?
Would imagine we would still get gubbed eventually.
Pretty much,and you will get gubbed/restricted. Can be a nice little earner whilst it lasts though
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Not been on a trade for 6 days since my second born was born on wednesday so not been looking tbf but gotcon the arsenal sheff utd game with a 100.18% rating. There were a good number of 100% plus games today but i learned from last weeks championship game to stick with the top league for 3pm kickoffs.
Arsenals game came just as I had used all my drip lays so made £0.88p from a 15 max risk.
For what its worth a 0-0 gives you a green at half time aswell just a lower profit.
A well times goal can give 10 to 15% of max risk and no goals about 5-8% based on 18 games so far.
A market thats got the game as a low acoring game can be a good 20% if the away team scores about 40 mins in.
Its a patient not going to make you rich system my max risks are tiny but ten times as much would be a nice side earner for sure.
Arsenals game came just as I had used all my drip lays so made £0.88p from a 15 max risk.
For what its worth a 0-0 gives you a green at half time aswell just a lower profit.
A well times goal can give 10 to 15% of max risk and no goals about 5-8% based on 18 games so far.
A market thats got the game as a low acoring game can be a good 20% if the away team scores about 40 mins in.
Its a patient not going to make you rich system my max risks are tiny but ten times as much would be a nice side earner for sure.
sniffer66 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:55 pmAbout a month, though I'm still not restricted on a few of the bigger ones. I took a couple of grand out with a max of £1.50 (£3 total) each way over that time. Like I said, matched betting and value betting aren't a bad way to build a free bank to test your trading with, but it's not viable returns in the long term as the bookies will spot you value betting quickly and shut you down
Oh ye of course. Ive been doing this stuff for a while but kept my accounts by mainly avoiding horses. Getting bored now and thinking about a blow out tbh! Would staking £50 each ways last a month in your experience? I'd love to get 12 weeks out of it. Looking at the EV, I reckon you'd get £8-10K over a 12 week period with £50 EW value.
Hard to say. I kept my stakes low to try and stay under the radar. My rationale was that I'd rather take less for longer.Packmoose wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:22 amsniffer66 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:55 pmAbout a month, though I'm still not restricted on a few of the bigger ones. I took a couple of grand out with a max of £1.50 (£3 total) each way over that time. Like I said, matched betting and value betting aren't a bad way to build a free bank to test your trading with, but it's not viable returns in the long term as the bookies will spot you value betting quickly and shut you down
Oh ye of course. Ive been doing this stuff for a while but kept my accounts by mainly avoiding horses. Getting bored now and thinking about a blow out tbh! Would staking £50 each ways last a month in your experience? I'd love to get 12 weeks out of it. Looking at the EV, I reckon you'd get £8-10K over a 12 week period with £50 EW value.
My gut feel would be that the larger the stakes/return the likelier it would be to raise a red flag. There's also the variance, I've never actually been in debit doing this but if you hit a big swing down your bank could take a big hit. Personally I'd not go more than a tenner each way, but that's just me