Greyhound Mystique

[Archery1969]

Following on from Jim's post...

Thats why i have rules to make sure the selections matched volume >= x and lay price <= y before i open the trade.

Remember i am not bothered if the selection wins as i am not gambling, only that its price is likely to shorten before the start.

Obviously i could be missing out on some trades.

[wearthefoxhat]

a few comments that i'd make about the data (insofar as i've scanned it):

1. The last run time (in sportinglife) is literally the last run time, it doesn't take into account the fact that the race distance may be different (i.e. 480m vs 290m etc). Thus, you'd be advised to scan the Form list and choose the most appropriate matching *last run* based on this match

2. Run time can vary both by track and trap. It may be useful to take into account the amount of *necks* that a runner has been beaten by at each form item level and calculate a true time/speed based on the winning time of the winning runner at that event.

3. Averages across ALL form data is not as meaningful as taking an average across a fixed time period that is relevant to all runners (i.e. 6-9 months, rather than 2 years worth of averages). Too wide a window and you have times for inexperinced runs as well as dogs reaching their natural peak form.

So, in a nutshell, I'd make full use of the sportinglife data but would take time to analyse how best to use the raw data as the plain numbers only tell half the story...

Happy crunching!!

Nice post, good info.

Re- The last run. Before I input the data, I only look for a race where all 6 greyhounds have had their last run over the course/distance. If they had a trial, different distance run, different course run, any handicap run, then I leave it out. It whittles the races down and at least gives the figures some consistency.

If I had the time/or inclination, I'd create a database for each greyhound at each track and get it to calculate a grey's life-time of times, factor in the age, and produce a rating for each performance. It seems, Timeform do that already, so I could just record the info daily...but I can't be arsed...

However, I will say, it's important to remember, there is no central handicapper/grader for greyhounds as there are for horse racing. Each track has the racing manager produce and grade the runners. That is their strength....and their weakness, as you can sometimes see how they put the race together.

On that point too, the old racing manager at Wembley, used to say they have to grade a certain amount of favourites. One way was to use runners that were ultra consistent and base their grading from that. As a reward, the ultra consistent one(s) would get a nice drop in grade as a thank-you and invariably go off as favourite to boot...and win.

[wearthefoxhat]

Following on from Jim's post...

Thats why i have rules to make sure the selections matched volume >= x and lay price <= y before i open the trade.

Remember i am not bothered if the selection wins as i am not gambling, only that its price is likely to shorten before the start.

Obviously i could be missing out on some trades.

Good point.

Wouldn't worry too much about missing out some trades, there's a ton of others to choose from.

[Archery1969]

I wonder why whoever wrote the article said to only run it on A1 to A10 races and not the other types of greyhound races.

Anyone have an idea as to why ?

[Airliner]

I've done a comparison yesterday between the time calculated from the last race and the fastest (adjusted times from the BF Greyhound form), the SL selections and the Selections on TF sorted by seed. I didn't get to sit through every single market however SL had the best strike rate by far out of the 3 in terms of back selections.

Attached is a file from some of yesterdays races if anyone is interested.

If there is a (-) next to a selection in the BF back/lay columns it means the selection was week - less than a 0.1s difference, I dont think I included any below/above a 0.05s difference.
If there is a (0) that means no selections qualified.

[Archery1969]

I've done a comparison yesterday between the time calculated from the last race and the fastest (adjusted times from the BF Greyhound form), the SL selections and the Selections on TF sorted by seed. I didn't get to sit through every single market however SL had the best strike rate by far out of the 3 in terms of back selections.

Attached is a file from some of yesterdays races if anyone is interested.

If there is a (-) next to a selection in the BF back/lay columns it means the selection was week - less than a 0.1s difference, I dont think I included any below/above a 0.05s difference.
If there is a (0) that means no selections qualified.

Interesting, thanks for posting.

Problem is punters will be split between RP, SL and TF.

I guess if RP, SL and TF all agree on the first pick then that would be a very good indicator that the price should shorten and therefore a higher TP% could be achieved. Probably allot less races but significantly more profitable for trading with larger stakes etc.

[Airliner]

Yes punters will be split and unfortunately the selections most of them agree on in one race will be short priced and will come in. The question in these races is whether or not to take the available price because it can run away quite quickly leaving you waiting and missing out.

[Bog]

I wonder why whoever wrote the article said to only run it on A1 to A10 races and not the other types of greyhound races.

Anyone have an idea as to why ?

?

1. We are only interested in races graded A1 to A11. Today there are 93.

Have you tested on other grades and doesn't work?

[jimibt]

morning all... in said sport, how do we define (as a measurement/metric) the terms: nk (neck)/ sh (shoulder) / hd (head)

if you review the past results, you'll see that dogs are defined as being beaten using 2 main metrics, a fractional number or an abbreviation, e.g.

BY 31/2 (three and a half), nk, hd or sh.

What are these measurments (in metric). Currently, I'm guessing (very wildly - and probably completely incorrectly) something like 15cm for a HD, 25cm for neck and 40cm for SH... but this is pure unscientific finger in the air (like i don't care):)

In short, I'm interested to discover (as a rough generic - in metric), what each of the numbers and abbreviations, circled in yellow below represents:

[wearthefoxhat]

morning all... in said sport, how do we define (as a measurement/metric) the terms: neck/ shoulder / head

if you review the past results, you'll see that dogs are beaten by 31/2 (three and a half), nk, HD or SH. What are these measurments (in metric).

Currently, I'm guessing (very wildly - and probably completely incorrectly) something like 15cm for a HD, 25cm for neck and 40cm for SH... but this is pure unscientific finger in the air (like i don't care):)

In short, I'm interested to discover (as a rough generic - in metric), what each of the numbers and abbreviations, circled in yellow below represents:

Not sure if this what you're looking for. It tallies with the way that some racing managers form calculated times..etc

rule.GIF

Also re-discovered this website for those that want to delve deeper into the greyhound abyss.

http://greyhoundstats.co.uk/index.php

[Archery1969]

This one worked really well this morning by splitting me trades up and drip feeding them in.

Dog 1.

[jimibt]

morning all... in said sport, how do we define (as a measurement/metric) the terms: neck/ shoulder / head

if you review the past results, you'll see that dogs are beaten by 31/2 (three and a half), nk, HD or SH. What are these measurments (in metric).

Currently, I'm guessing (very wildly - and probably completely incorrectly) something like 15cm for a HD, 25cm for neck and 40cm for SH... but this is pure unscientific finger in the air (like i don't care):)

In short, I'm interested to discover (as a rough generic - in metric), what each of the numbers and abbreviations, circled in yellow below represents:

Not sure if this what you're looking for. It tallies with the way that some racing managers form calculated times..etc


rule.GIF


Also re-discovered this website for those that want to delve deeper into the greyhound abyss.

http://greyhoundstats.co.uk/index.php

thanks, that's good enough to get me started on my delve down the rabbit hole; all i needed was a set of valid constants to kick things off

[jimibt]

This one worked really well this morning by splitting me trades up and drip feeding them in.

Dog 1.

that seems to tally up well with the stats from the SportingLife website. It also tallies with your second take on LTB for Fieldview Chief as i can see that the low/high odds had a nice drift!

in short, if this is following a published strategy and folk are backing or laying these runners (as straight bets), then i can see no reason not to get involved. only caveat being the identification of the (fair/value) price ahead of the move. This facet, I think I've solved in part

[Archery1969]

This one worked really well this morning by splitting me trades up and drip feeding them in.

Dog 1.

that seems to tally up well with the stats from the SportingLife website. It also tallies with your second take on LTB for Fieldview Chief as i can see that the low/high odds had a nice drift!

in short, if this is following a published strategy and folk are backing or laying these runners (as straight bets), then i can see no reason not to get involved. only caveat being the identification of the (fair/value) price ahead of the move. This facet, I think I've solved in part

+ 1

Its a real shame BA cant place trades via an input file without using Excel or alike. But i kinda like the semi-auto structure as when i get the selections i go and manually check a couple of other pointers to confirm the price is likely to increase/decrease and then start my servant.

Am very greatful to the forum member that did the donkey work on this. And he/she knows who they are.

[spreadbetting]

Here's my scraped data for the day, I'll log the prices at 2 inutes out and off time see if there's anything in it for simple automation

11:01 Crayford Tue 21 January 2020,2. Canine Duke, class A8, time difference 0.46
11:16 Crayford Tue 21 January 2020,4. Leave Her Lucky, class A9, time difference 0.2
12:31 Crayford Tue 21 January 2020,6. Ballymac Suling, class A3, time difference 0.34
12:39 Central Park Tue 21 January 2020,1. Mystical Sparkey, class A5, time difference 0.16
13:08 Central Park Tue 21 January 2020,2. Sophies Diva, class A4, time difference 0.13
13:19 Nottingham Tue 21 January 2020,6. Longsearch, class A5, time difference 0.37
13:49 Crayford Tue 21 January 2020,4. Miss Rankin, class A2, time difference 0.14
14:08 Sunderland Tue 21 January 2020,2. Power Diva, class A2, time difference 0.12
14:22 Monmore Tue 21 January 2020,1. Saras Story, class A8, time difference 0.49
14:32 Hove Tue 21 January 2020,1. Lisneal Tornado, class A5, time difference 0.11
14:47 Sunderland Tue 21 January 2020,4. Killacolla Dude, class A4, time difference 0.25
15:02 Monmore Tue 21 January 2020,5. Joe Montana, class A3, time difference 0.13
15:27 Sunderland Tue 21 January 2020,1. All Gone, class A3, time difference 0.14
15:29 Hove Tue 21 January 2020,6. Thunder Ted, class A10, time difference 0.21
15:49 Hove Tue 21 January 2020,3. Yassoo Andrico, class A8, time difference 0.1
15:59 Monmore Tue 21 January 2020,4. Master Blinker, class A3, time difference 0.25
16:09 Hove Tue 21 January 2020,6. Regeva Smiler, class A6, time difference 0.2
16:19 Monmore Tue 21 January 2020,2. Mineola Mycat, class A6, time difference 0.14
16:29 Hove Tue 21 January 2020,4. Caterham Rocker, class A7, time difference 0.1
16:48 Hove Tue 21 January 2020,5. Lisneal Crafty, class A5, time difference 0.26
16:58 Monmore Tue 21 January 2020,4. Moorstown Bobby, class A4, time difference 0.15
17:18 Monmore Tue 21 January 2020,1. Some Smiler, class A4, time difference 0.16
17:37 Monmore Tue 21 January 2020,1. Aim High, class A8, time difference 0.11
18:02 Hove Tue 21 January 2020,1. Centre Fold, class A6, time difference 0.25
18:09 Monmore Tue 21 January 2020,2. Slaneyside Toffy, class A5, time difference 0.46
18:27 Henlow Tue 21 January 2020,4. Cashinonjoey, class A3, time difference 0.49
18:29 Poole Tue 21 January 2020,4. Devon Queen, class A7, time difference 0.25
18:47 Poole Tue 21 January 2020,4. Dapper Pet, class A2, time difference 0.24
19:07 Crayford Tue 21 January 2020,3. Noans Dolly, class A6, time difference 0.14
19:17 Henlow Tue 21 January 2020,2. Salthill Duke, class A6, time difference 0.12
19:19 Poole Tue 21 January 2020,1. Juliet Recruit, class A8, time difference 0.22
19:23 Crayford Tue 21 January 2020,2. Deecees Whisky, class A10, time difference 0.25
19:38 Crayford Tue 21 January 2020,1. Salthill Romeo, class A10, time difference 0.24
19:49 Henlow Tue 21 January 2020,1. Nans Blitz, class A8, time difference 0.1
20:08 Poole Tue 21 January 2020,4. Cyclers Bell, class A6, time difference 0.26
20:21 Henlow Tue 21 January 2020,1. Muxton Teddy, class A3, time difference 0.27
20:44 Sheffield Tue 21 January 2020,2. Fizzy Fitz, class A4, time difference 0.12
21:26 Henlow Tue 21 January 2020,1. Ballymac Pebbles, class A2, time difference 0.34
21:30 Crayford Tue 21 January 2020,5. Crossgarcrainey, class A10, time difference 0.23
21:34 Sheffield Tue 21 January 2020,2. Coney Calyx, class A3, time difference 0.24