How big a sample do you need?

The sport of kings.
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chri2510
Posts: 24
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:21 pm

Hello,

The question is in the title. If for example my strategy applies these conditions:
- back the favorite in hurdles races on all UK races if the SP is under 4.

How many races do I need to verify if this strategy is winning?
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

As big as you can get with those type of strategies as you'll encounter so many long losing runs. Luckily that type of data probably isn't too hard to find.
The Adrian Massey site has lots of data http://www.adrianmassey.com

Totals
Bets
91652
Winning Bets
32785
Total Staked
9165200.00
Commission
118163.77
Total Returns (after commission)
9068384.92
Net Profit/Loss
96815.08
% Returns
98.9%
Filters Used

Years
2012 , 2013 , 2014 , 2015 , 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2019 , 2020 , 2021 , 2022 , 2023 ,

Starting Price
Less than 1-2 , 1-2 to 10-11 , Evens to 11-8 , 6-4 to 15-8 , 2-1 to 11-4 , 3-1 to 9-2 ,
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 10525
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Can you send me that 2020 , 2021 , 2022 , 2023 data pls :)
Cardano
Posts: 215
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:02 pm

And me please :D
chri2510
Posts: 24
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:21 pm

Ahah, some people are really ahead of us....
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Bog
Posts: 198
Joined: Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:19 am

chri2510 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:48 pm
Ahah, some people are really ahead of us....
Intersted? :mrgreen:
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