Triggering a rule if a horse becomes more favoured in play

[rhysw1948]

I am writing an in play strategy and I want to track if this horse becomes more or less favoured in play IE if at the jump it's the fifth favourite, in play it becomes the second favourite but then drops down to second last favourite. I cant quite find a condition that tracks this, can anyone help me out? Thanks in advance.

[Dallas]

Yes it can be done, but can you be a little clearer of exactly what you want to do, ie, is it always the starting 5th fav (or some order of fav) or do you want to nominate specfic horses by name before the race and track that?

Once in-play you can use signal to test what position/s it reaches then on your back/lay rule a signal condition to test if the signals are set (ie, its reached the fav position you want)

[rhysw1948]

Yes it can be done, but can you be a little clearer of exactly what you want to do, ie, is it always the starting 5th fav (or some order of fav) or do you want to nominate specfic horses by name before the race and track that?

Once in-play you can use signal to test what position/s it reaches then on your back/lay rule a signal condition to test if the signals are set (ie, its reached the fav position you want)

I want to nominate a particular horse, not just the fifth favourite every time. I am backing it pre race (currently at BSP) and waiting for its odds to drop, which will happen as it becomes more favoured over other horses. I am currently thinking once it becomes twice as favoured as it started I will then green up, for example if it started as the 6th fav then I will green up when it is 3rd fav or better. Or else if it goes up 2 or 3 ranks in favour (is this the correct terminology?) then green up. Both strategies would yield similar results as I cant see myself backing a horse that begins too low in favour.

[rhysw1948]

How would I use a signal to test what potion the horse is in?

[jimibt]

Yes it can be done, but can you be a little clearer of exactly what you want to do, ie, is it always the starting 5th fav (or some order of fav) or do you want to nominate specfic horses by name before the race and track that?

Once in-play you can use signal to test what position/s it reaches then on your back/lay rule a signal condition to test if the signals are set (ie, its reached the fav position you want)

I want to nominate a particular horse, not just the fifth favourite every time. I am backing it pre race (currently at BSP) and waiting for its odds to drop, which will happen as it becomes more favoured over other horses. I am currently thinking once it becomes twice as favoured as it started I will then green up, for example if it started as the 6th fav then I will green up when it is 3rd fav or better. Or else if it goes up 2 or 3 ranks in favour (is this the correct terminology?) then green up. Both strategies would yield similar results as I cant see myself backing a horse that begins too low in favour.

it sounds more like you are interested in how much a horse's odds (as a percentage - i.e. book%) reduce, rather than its *curent ranking* at that time. If you were making a generic rule, then i feel that you'd be focussing on runners where their current SP is 40/50% lower than their BSP, while at the same time, the original front runners have all drifted from their BSP.

it's a surprisingly common misconception to conclude that rank reflects current perfomance/physical race position!! - free youself from that and you're onto a winner

Hopefully, this should be enough to get you started

[Dallas]

I'd agree with what Jimibt has just posted, of you wanted to do this there is an example quite close and wouldn't require much editing
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=18727

One of the things you could add easily is your nominated runner starts 3rd,4th,5th fav etc or higher if you wanted to ignore those at the front end of the book

[rhysw1948]

it sounds more like you are interested in how much a horse's odds (as a percentage - i.e. book%) reduce, rather than its *curent ranking* at that time. If you were making a generic rule, then i feel that you'd be focussing on runners where their current SP is 40/50% lower than their BSP, while at the same time, the original front runners have all drifted from their BSP.

Yes absolutely this.

I have access to data that can tell me a shortlist of horses in UK racing that are more than likely to shorten from their BSP in play but my problem is that I can't predict how much they will shorten. I am aware of the strategy known as DOBbing where you trade out in play when you have made your stake in profits but my problem with this is the DOB strategy barely breaks even and a lot of the time the horse shortens quite a lot more than this, and could have doubled, tripled or even more my original stake had I held on. I know that If I traded manually I would be able to assess this more accurately but I live in Australia and I am usually asleep when the UK racing is on so automating this is a must for me.

I don't expect anyone to tell me how to predict when the best time to green up is and how to write it as an automated script as that is where the money is and anyone who has figured it out would be wise not to share it on a public board. I do think book% movement is a huge part of it, not just for my nominated horse but for other horses in the race too. The book% of the front running horses will start to solidify as the race approaches the pointy end and this is where I think I want to trade out but I can't quite get my head around how to automate it.

Dallas - I will have a look at that file and see if it can provide me with any clarity to my problem. Thank you so much for all you have done on these boards, I have learned a lot from your work.

[firlandsfarm]

Once in-play you can use signal to test what position/s it reaches then on your back/lay rule a signal condition to test if the signals are set (ie, its reached the fav position you want)

Hi Dallas, sorry but I'm not following your suggestion … how do I use Signals to test where a Selection is in the list of Favourites?

[Dallas]

Once in-play you can use signal to test what position/s it reaches then on your back/lay rule a signal condition to test if the signals are set (ie, its reached the fav position you want)

Hi Dallas, sorry but I'm not following your suggestion … how do I use Signals to test where a Selection is in the list of Favourites?

You'd need a set/modify signal rule applied to your nominated selection 1
with a 2 x relative odds condition to test its back price is less than 3rd fav
and other to test its greater than than 1st fav

(ie, it needs to be 2nd fav to satify both condition)

Then on the signal tab you can set signal on that selection (could name it 'order' with a value of 2 of simplicity)

Finally your back/lay rule can use a 'signal value condition' to test if this signal value is present

[rhysw1948]

This is a great idea but unfortunately it is too limited for what I am looking for, as it looks for a certain position (in this case 2nd favourite). I was thinking that the position I want to test for is relative to the position it started as, as per their BSPs. IE after the jump sort the horses by their BSP and find out where in that order the nominated selection lies, then then the selection is twice as favoured (eg it started at 6 and now it is 3) you green up.

I have a funny feeling this algorithm falls outside the scope of Guardian automation and into Excel.

[firlandsfarm]

You'd need a set/modify signal rule applied to your nominated selection 1
with a 2 x relative odds condition to test its back price is less than 3rd fav
and other to test its greater than than 1st fav

Yep got it, sorry obvious really … I would have been drawn towatds SV's.