Getting closer to SP odds

[badboy13]

I have several horse in running rules.I have set it so it places initial bet at start time. But often there is a delay of few minutes and the price can change quite a a bit in that time before going inplay. Is there anyway of setting it to get closer to SP odds just before inplay?

[ShaunWhite]

Place your bets away from the current price and set their status to 'TakeSP'?

[badboy13]

Place your bets away from the current price and set their status to 'TakeSP'?

Ok so been trying that and that works ok placing bets at SP price but finding even though I’m only putting £10-20 backs and lays on only a fraction is getting matched at SP price. Any way to improve this?

[Jukebox]

You shouldn't be having any problem with your back bets being taken at SP at those levels but your lays will need at least £10 of liability to be included by BF - and it's only your liability they take into account for a lay.

[badboy13]

You shouldn't be having any problem with your back bets being taken at SP at those levels but your lays will need at least £10 of liability to be included by BF - and it's only your liability they take into account for a lay.

Backs have been matched most of the time yes its the lays thats the problem. I've been laying £20 at odds of between 3-12 so that should be enough liability? Only around £3-6 being matched. I'm using practice mode if that makes any difference?

[Jukebox]

As I said, its the liability that counts - so if you lay for a stake of £20 at say 4.0 and the bet is unmatched but marked take SP you'll have committed £60 liability to the SP pot. If it SPs at 5.0 Betfair will give you £60 of liability at 5.0 resulting in a stake of only £15 or if it SPs at 6.0 it will mean a stake of only £12. The farther your unmatched bet is from the SP price the smaller the stake will be.

Whether you are a backer or a layer committing to the SP calculation your downside is fixed and your upside is determined by the SP calculation.

[jimibt]

As I said, its the liability that counts - so if you lay for a stake of £20 at say 4.0 and the bet is unmatched but marked take SP you'll have committed £60 liability to the SP pot. If it SPs at 5.0 Betfair will give you £60 of liability at 5.0 resulting in a stake of only £15 or if it SPs at 6.0 it will mean a stake of only £12. The farther your unmatched bet is from the SP price the smaller the stake will be.

Whether you are a backer or a layer committing to the SP calculation your downside is fixed and your upside is determined by the SP calculation.

this is why my pet hate is the whole concept of BSP. whether it be casual stats or frontline trading, i personally find BSP/ActualSP to be a real bugbear/anathema. Not sure how the odds are calculated at BF central (cough, profit central) but I've had MANY a decent backtested strategy fail purely down to BSP and matched SP being a small(ish [sometimes]) but measurable difference...

one for the savants i feel!! (Luke?? )

[Jukebox]

Their calculation is reasonably transparent and fair. Its just that with a back bet its obvious when you're committing £10 to SP and you get what you get as an upside - its no different to Laying but it isn't quite so obvious. If laying is your thing it might be worth switching to 'By Liability' staking - you'll always know where you are and will effectively be in the same position as a backer.
When it comes to backtesting make the adjustment for what actually happens - you might have dismissed some things that you previously considered as losing strategies.

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQ ... kings.html

[jimibt]

Their calculation is reasonably transparent and fair. Its just that with a back bet its obvious when you're committing £10 to SP and you get what you get as an upside - its no different to Laying but it isn't quite so obvious. If laying is your thing it might be worth switching to 'By Liability' staking - you'll always know where you are and will effectively be in the same position as a backer.
When it comes to backtesting make the adjustment for what actually happens - you might have dismissed some things that you previously considered as losing strategies.

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQ ... kings.html

cheers for that jukebox, will review the promo docs.

I do actually (as a religion) lay by liability - without exception. my main point is that placing bets outside of the actual off (i.e. the nanosecond that equates to BSP) leads to very different results. in some cases this (perceived?!?) anomaly takes a backtested strat from a mouth watering retirement profit to a dismal wonga loan category (don't even know if they are still a thing and shafting folk)

[Jukebox]

Its not just traders who didn't get their green marking their outbet 'take sp' hoping not to lose too much - If you look at the 1.01 tick and 1000 tick pre-off not all that mega money lined up is chancer's money hoping for some once in a blue moon slip up or being taken in-play - a great deal of it is deliberately out of harm's way and marked 'take sp'.

[Bear's The Name]

I find the whole BSP process very frustrating. The methods I use rely on it to give me a balanced book but it seems to be increasingly unreliable recently. I often have lays still in the market which go to BSP which would give me a profit (in theory) but the BSP moves away from the final traded price leaving me in the red. For example I can have BSP lay up for a horse whose final spread is 4.5-4.6 but then the BSP ends up being 4.8. When I tot up the percentages in the book they come out at about 98%. It happens a lot and this isn't on weak markets - I'm talking UK racing with 500k traded pre-off.

I wondered if my bets skewed the market but I wouldn't have thought they were big enough - I might have up to £100 liability in the above example.

I thought the idea was to have BSP books close to 100% but they can deviate quite a lot from that. Sometimes they are significantly below that, say if a horse plays up at the start in a jump race and looks like it's not going to run it's BSP can go out dramatically in the last couple of seconds but the prices of the other horses don't adjust to reflect it. There was one the other day that went out from something like 16 to a BSP of about 800 and the book pecentage ended up being something like 94%.