Lay or close trade with greening?

[JakubStefanik]

Which one is better for you inplay ?

For example isnt it better to place lay bet on selection i backed and now it is loss, instead of close trade when you are sure that selection doesnt have chance of winning anymore? To secure at least no loss trade ?
Is there higher delay for closing trade with greening on small stakes ? it is lay below 2pounds. Because in last few days i wasnt able to close trade at all and i lost full stake. (even if it triggered 3times).

Any suggestions or ideas? Thank you for replies.

[Jukebox]

One your first point
I suggest you do a few calculations before you go down that route and at the same time consider how certain you are that your selection "doesn't have a chance of winning anymore". With a hedge you'll save some of your initial stake but locking it in on all selections. With an even lay bet you will be taking on a large liability on your selection and at "doesn't have a chance" odds - which usually means a lot more than your initial stake.

On the other point
If you use below Betfair minimum stakes in-play you will suffer the in-play delay twice. This is because to enable a bet below the minimum, BA has to put out your bet at 1.01 or 1000 first, which incurs the usual delay and then amend the unmatched bet and resubmit it incurring the usual delay a second time. If in-play is your thing and you need to your bets out there quickly then using less than minimum stakes is going to be a major disadvantage.

[rhysw1948]

It sounds to me Jakub like you are trying to achieve something similar to me. You can back at the BSP then place a lay bet at 50% of the BSP thus doubling your stake, but the problem is your horse could potentially go a lot (like 400%) lower than BSP and you could have made so much more profit than you did. I am struggling to figure out how to program when or at what price to hedge, I think there are too many factors and even if you traded in play you might miss out on the best price. What I am working on now is filtering out potential runners which is improving my strike rate but is also reducing my bet count. If you come up with a method of calculating the optimal hedge out price please let me know

[JakubStefanik]

One your first point
I suggest you do a few calculations before you go down that route and at the same time consider how certain you are that your selection "doesn't have a chance of winning anymore". With a hedge you'll save some of your initial stake but locking it in on all selections. With an even lay bet you will be taking on a large liability on your selection and at "doesn't have a chance" odds - which usually means a lot more than your initial stake.

On the other point
If you use below Betfair minimum stakes in-play you will suffer the in-play delay twice. This is because to enable a bet below the minimum, BA has to put out your bet at 1.01 or 1000 first, which incurs the usual delay and then amend the unmatched bet and resubmit it incurring the usual delay a second time. If in-play is your thing and you need to your bets out there quickly then using less than minimum stakes is going to be a major disadvantage.

yeah i am not really sure about laying it i just meant in general if it would be better choice, but i am not liking that potential loss is increasing exponentially. So if i am hedging out and that lay bet is under 2pounds is it more delayed then if it would above 2 pounds?

[Jukebox]

Yes. If you use less than minimum stakes in-play you will suffer a longer delay for your bet to hit the market.

[JakubStefanik]

Yes. If you use less than minimum stakes in-play you will suffer a longer delay for your bet to hit the market.

is there any way how to count what stakes i need to use to secure my hedge bet will be over 2pounds ?

[Jukebox]

It can be calculated but you'll need to know what price you go in at and what price you'll come out at and technically even £100 initial stake might not be enough if the out odds are bad - but here's a couple of rules of thumb:

If you are backing first because you are hoping for the odds to shorten then your hedge out stake will always be bigger than your intial stake - eg if the odds halve the stake will double. However if you need to bail out and the odds have doubled and you need to hedge out then the stake will be half the original stake.

Therefore if you are working with a £2 initial back stake and the odds shorten when you hedge you'll only get the in-play delay once. But if it goes wrong and you need to hedge out you'll get the in-play delay twice.
If you up your initial stake to £4 you can hedge out with £2 or more provided the odds haven't drifted out to more than double the initial odds.
Hope that helps.

[JakubStefanik]

It can be calculated but you'll need to know what price you go in at and what price you'll come out at and technically even £100 initial stake might not be enough if the out odds are bad - but here's a couple of rules of thumb:

If you are backing first because you are hoping for the odds to shorten then your hedge out stake will always be bigger than your intial stake - eg if the odds halve the stake will double. However if you need to bail out and the odds have doubled and you need to hedge out then the stake will be half the original stake.

Therefore if you are working with a £2 initial back stake and the odds shorten when you hedge you'll only get the in-play delay once. But if it goes wrong and you need to hedge out you'll get the in-play delay twice.
If you up your initial stake to £4 you can hedge out with £2 or more provided the odds haven't drifted out to more than double the initial odds.
Hope that helps.

I have a lot to think about, also i wanted to ask what do you think is best delay before retriggering greening inplay.

[Jukebox]

[ ......also i wanted to ask what do you think is best delay before retriggering greening inplay.

I think that is a matter of opinion - I would favour the in-play delay plus 1 second - but that can seem like a long time in the closing stages of a race.