Hi
I wonder if anyone can shed some light on, for example if the 2/1 fav comes down in price obviously somthing must go out. I am trying to find the link with the 2/1 fav and the horse that goes out. Would it be the next weakest horse that goes out or is this to simplistic. I guess its to do with odds, share of the market etc......... cant fathom this out.
Sometimes there is a good move down by the favourite but nothing else seems to move.
Thanks for any help
Taking up the slack in the book
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10525
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
It's not just a numbers game it's also about horses and sentiment, who fancies what.
And it's not necessarily the weakest that goes out, if a horse drifts from 50/1 to 100/1 it's reduced it's liklihood of winning by 1%, that's barely enough to compensate for a horse shortening from 2.04 to 2, also a 1% move (49.02% in to 50%). If you could reduce it to mechanics and gear ratios, then the shorter the price the less it has to move to take up the slack.
"Sometimes there is a good move down by the favourite but nothing else seems to move."
Unless the overround has changed then the market has moved, but it might just be a tick or two spread across several selections if no single horse suddenly looks more or less likely to win.
And it's not necessarily the weakest that goes out, if a horse drifts from 50/1 to 100/1 it's reduced it's liklihood of winning by 1%, that's barely enough to compensate for a horse shortening from 2.04 to 2, also a 1% move (49.02% in to 50%). If you could reduce it to mechanics and gear ratios, then the shorter the price the less it has to move to take up the slack.
"Sometimes there is a good move down by the favourite but nothing else seems to move."
Unless the overround has changed then the market has moved, but it might just be a tick or two spread across several selections if no single horse suddenly looks more or less likely to win.