firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:51 am
I'm sorry but I am not making any mistake, bull and bear conditions refer to capital growth, dividends refer to income ... now that is a fundamental mistake to confuse that. So you would say I don't care my investments have dropped by 73% in value I've had the income!! Really!!
Each to their own, I look at total return as that is what my investment returns me.
Roughly over the last 20 years:
Jan 2000 the FTSE 100 was at 6,930
Today the FTSE 100 is at 7,404
Return = 7%
Total return in that period has been 86%.
I always go for accumulation rather than income when selecting my funds as I am in the accumulation stage of life still and I am not sure I will ever switch to the income version of the funds for various reasons.
Kind of on this subject I listened to a 2 part debate about Dividend investing recently which might be of interest to others:
https://www.choosefi.com/dividend-investing/
https://www.choosefi.com/learn-more-abo ... investing/
firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:51 am
PDC wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:56 pm
I personally would not suggest holding just the FTSE 100
I can't recall ever suggesting just holding the FTSE100.
You recall correctly, the clue was in the use of the words "personally" and "I". I was talking about what "I" would not do "personally"
firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:51 am
When used as candles no, they are not short term. Do you know what I mean by "candles"? It is probably the most popular chart form used in investment.
Unfortunately I do know all to well about candles, I wasted a lot of time and money on technical analysis buying and studying books such as
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: A Contemporary Guide to the Ancient Investment Techniques of the Far East and
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications and then I learned more and no longer bother with such stuff.
firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:51 am
why not move it in your favour ... Warren Buffet tells you to do the reverse so when the market is high and the lemmings are investing because it's buoyant you sit on your cash and when the market is low because the lemmings are selling you buy.
Thats what he does and continues to do so. It could be argued he has given up a lot of returns by sitting on his huge cash pile. Yes he is ready to buy when things go on sale but in the meantime there is an opportunity cost to what he does.
I ain't no Warren Buffett so I won't be adopting his approach I will instead go with his advice that most investors will not be able to achieve this and instead should just keep on dollar cost averaging. That way I don't have to worry myself about timing the market on the way in and out multiple times. I will buy at the top and I will buy at the bottom and every step in between.
At what point in the last decade did people think the market was high and started to sit on cash? Or are they fully invested still? Did they manage to call the bottom of the 2008 crash? Where are we now in the cycle? Where were we at the start of 2019, the market had just been falling was it going to continue to fall or did they see the turn around coming and yet more all time highs being hit month after month. I know I didn't, I have been saying for ages that it can't surely keep going up yet it has. But ultimately I don't care, I don't make my investing decisions based on what I think will or won't happen.
I know that I can't time the market over the long term and don't attempt to, I did use to but learned from that. I just wish I learned much sooner that market timing is pointless and will leave (in almost all cases) to under performance v the market average. Also by remaining invested you avoid the additional costs and tax events that buying and selling can lead to.
Perhaps you are one of the few that can keep calling it right time and again, if you are fair play to you, you are one of the very few who can keep doing it year in year out. It is a very very select club. Say hi to Warren for me next time you have lunch with him
This is an interesting article about dollar cost averaging v lump sum investing, personally I don't feel comfortable with going all in when I come into a lump sum. I know I should do it but it doesn't pass the sleep test for me. I would be kept awake worrying about it, I am therefore willing to give up some potential returns for a better nights sleep.
"
Invest now or temporarily hold your cash? "
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGDCA.pdf
firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:51 am
there is only one strategy ... keep your assets in the same proportion to your liabilities. If you spend £'s then keep £'s why bring another variable into it by introducing an element of forex. It's not unusual for the assets to grow in the local currency but fall in value when converted to the home currency.
Each to their own, but the greater diversification and growth potential that investing in foreign funds brings more than out weighs the exchange rate variability, for me.
A YouTube channel that I really like and have learned a lot from is by PensionCraft, he produces a weekly video and I would highly recommend following the channel, still waiting on Peter Webb's finance YouTube channel that he keeps hinting at launching:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9OIwU ... XGw/videos
Ultimately, people have to do what is right for them. What was/is right for me won't be right for you. What I think is right for me may be wrong when I look back in years to come when I have better knowledge and understanding. I wish I knew back in the past what I know now such as that trying to time the market and pick individual stocks would lead to under performance. The way I put it is I can roll a 4 every time, or I can have the chance of rolling a 5 or 6 if I put in a lot of extra time and effort but even if I do I could easily still roll a 1, 2 or 3.
I will take the 4 every time and spend my time and effort on other things that are more productive and useful to me.