Anyone still make money without trading?

[stueytrader]

Is anyone able to claim on here they actually make consistent profit on football straight pre-selecting, home, away, draw selections, or even markets like Under/Over goals?

I find it almost impossible in the current markets have to say. The occasional good selection, too many doubtful factors and effective pricing pre-games also now to beat. Even if you think you can price well pre-game, now you have VARs etc to come in and add enough noise to delete all value.

Of course, trading can be a different question - but is there ever really consistent edge in simple pre-selections with football anymore?

Edit: just to add rationale, I'm pretty much giving up all my pre-selection straight punting with football. Though completely opposite to my view of racing, where my pre-selections are consistently my best area financially.

[rik]

isnt VAR supposed to make matches more predictable as less wrong decisions?

[stueytrader]

isnt VAR supposed to make matches more predictable as less wrong decisions?

Unfortunately, I don't find that, though others may I suppose?

[spreadbetting]

Only thing that'd stop me is the PC charges but with 2% Comms and near 100% books now's the best time to be straight punting imo. They'll always be value if you put the effort in, remember the only way people win by trading is because they're getting value on at least one of their bets. If lazy traders can get value with pretty much no effort surely you can with some effort.

[stueytrader]

Only thing that'd stop me is the PC charges but with 2% Comms and near 100% books now's the best time to be straight punting imo. They'll always be value if you put the effort in, remember the only way people win by trading is because they're getting value on at least one of their bets. If lazy traders can get value with pretty much no effort surely you can with some effort.

You are maybe right about effort, I maybe spend more energy with my racing work these days and partly neglect that for the football in comparison. Though it often seems even heavily researched selections I make on football fail to pay off in general these days - my experience for this season in general. Opposite with racing, I do the research and it's paid me well consistently for some time.

[stueytrader]

I think maybe it's just I understand racing better than football - in terms of what provides the value. I had been heading that way for a number of years, but this year it's more pronounced for me than ever between the two.

I'm on a small loss overall for my football. A consistent and very decent profit for racing. That's including only pre match/race selections allowed to run without trading inplay. Period including approx 7 months of markets.

[jimibt]

Only thing that'd stop me is the PC charges but with 2% Comms and near 100% books now's the best time to be straight punting imo. They'll always be value if you put the effort in ....

100% agree. this is my primary focus these days (finding value bets and straight punting). When I 1st arrived on the scene here, I was looking to automate pre racing and had limited success due to the sheer demands of black boxing so many different market conditions. I then looked at mechanical based strategies in-play and those also offered up long periods of good returns (I still tinker with these, more to find edge cases).

Fast fwd to 2019 and I really then realised that there was a lot to be gained (as you say based on low comms) by finding good straight bets and allowing strike rate/edge to play out as required.

[stueytrader]

Only thing that'd stop me is the PC charges but with 2% Comms and near 100% books now's the best time to be straight punting imo. They'll always be value if you put the effort in ....

Fast fwd to 2019 and I really then realised that there was a lot to be gained (as you say based on low comms) by finding good straight bets and allowing strike rate/edge to play out as required.

Have no problem at all doing that with racing markets, only for football.

[jimibt]

Only thing that'd stop me is the PC charges but with 2% Comms and near 100% books now's the best time to be straight punting imo. They'll always be value if you put the effort in ....

Fast fwd to 2019 and I really then realised that there was a lot to be gained (as you say based on low comms) by finding good straight bets and allowing strike rate/edge to play out as required.

Have no problem at all doing that with racing markets, only for football.

yup -gotcha. just really wanted to reiterate the point that value bets (of any sort, but in particular horse racing) is a nice approach. just a matter of finding the right tools maybe to make the same judgements in football.

[stueytrader]

Fast fwd to 2019 and I really then realised that there was a lot to be gained (as you say based on low comms) by finding good straight bets and allowing strike rate/edge to play out as required.

Have no problem at all doing that with racing markets, only for football.

yup -gotcha. just really wanted to reiterate the point that value bets (of any sort, but in particular horse racing) is a nice approach. just a matter of finding the right tools maybe to make the same judgements in football.

Yes, sure you're probably right - I just wonder why I can seem to make it with one but not the other. I suppose people on the football forum generally believe there's value (or they wouldn't be on this specific forum so much).

I have my own intuitions on that - racing seems to me to provide better 'angles' or edges if you like than football. But, that's just my view, course many may disagree.

[Diacritical Quark]

I know this isn't quite the same thing but up until recently when I was matched betting and arbing I had perfected the art of losing with the bookie and winning in my Betfair account on a pretty consistent basis just on football taking what I could see as value odds. I was using poisson distribution and placing bets in the correct score market as I typically found those to hold the best value due to the higher odds and it being a harder market to price up. All anecdotal of course and naturally I was matched betting and arbing, whether I could still do it without that safety net I'm not willing to find out.

[spreadbetting]

Have no problem at all doing that with racing markets, only for football.

yup -gotcha. just really wanted to reiterate the point that value bets (of any sort, but in particular horse racing) is a nice approach. just a matter of finding the right tools maybe to make the same judgements in football.

Yes, sure you're probably right - I just wonder why I can seem to make it with one but not the other. I suppose people on the football forum generally believe there's value (or they wouldn't be on this specific forum so much).

I have my own intuitions on that - racing seems to me to provide better 'angles' or edges if you like than football. But, that's just my view, course many may disagree.

I think with any sports betting you really need to specialise rather trying to be a jack of all trades if you want to be successful. With football there's just so much information out there and so many bookies employing experienced odds makers it's always going to be hard to find a rick. Horse racing can flip if the wind blows the wrong way or some big punter pops along for a day to skew the odds, if you can race read and watch the races you'll always be in with a shot.

I rarely watch a race when they jump these days but when I did I'd always spot the odd horse who'd had an unlucky run and would come out next time and romp home at bigger odds than they should have. But those bets came along far too rarely for me to make a living from it, for people who are much more dedicated and have better race reading skills than me I'd imagine those opportunities are all over.

[Derek27]

I used to make money betting on horse racing and I'm sure I still would if I didn't find training easier or had the time and inclination to start studying it again.

[Kai]

Edit: just to add rationale, I'm pretty much giving up all my pre-selection straight punting with football. Though completely opposite to my view of racing, where my pre-selections are consistently my best area financially.

I assume that you've been placing your bets just before the off?

[stueytrader]

Edit: just to add rationale, I'm pretty much giving up all my pre-selection straight punting with football. Though completely opposite to my view of racing, where my pre-selections are consistently my best area financially.

I assume that you've been placing your bets just before the off?

Not specifically in terms of timings. Some are earlier matched bets that I leave on. Though I should also add I'm more usually a layer rather than backer overall.